glory

That 25 pounds of "muscle" Morrow added has sure helped him so far.

Why didn't they increase payroll after 2010 when they won 85 games? Or after 2011 when they won 81 and with Darvish/Cespedes available? Why did they wait until after 2012 when they won 73 games and had as many injury and performance question marks as they did?

Sure from a marketing standpoint it was a huge success, but the timing was always pretty bad. Practically everyone except for Encarnacion was coming off either a down year or a partial year due to injury. Hutchison and Drabek were to miss all of 2013. Their best prospects were in Double-A and below, so no help was on the horizon for at least a year or two. I understand they wanted to try to win with Bautista and Edwin, but the roster was not talented enough to go for it yet. Maybe if Lawrie had panned out, or Hutchison was healthy/effective, etc, but too many question marks and not enough certainty.

When Arnsberg was here, everyone got injured too, but at least they pitched well before getting hurt. Practically everyone regressed last season save for Mark Buehrle, and every starter (healthy or injured) was giving up taters like it was 1998 again. I'm not saying it was entirely Walker's fault, but it happens with this organization all the time. Aaron Hill was terrible for two seasons here, then spends 45 seconds with Don Baylor and turns into a 5 WAR player overnight. This coaching team needs to be held accountable, especially if they wanted to scapegoat Chad Mottola (who appeared to actually do well with some players). Walker has no business being on this team after last year. Pitchers continue to regress under his watch.

Rogers only knows how to do two things: 1) spend money at the absolute worst time and 2) when it doesn't work after a year or so start dumping contracts. Dickey is smart to put two and two together publicly. When Alex did nothing this off-season, the writing was on the wall. Rogers is bracing itself for another 75 win season to justify a firesale. If the team ends up winning instead, great, more money in their pocket, but don't expect ownership to help anymore.

I'm still baffled as to how Pete Walker kept his job after last year. Sure not everything that happened was his fault, but if they were going to let Mottola go, I'm not sure how Walker could get another year. Not a single pitcher has improved since Walker took over.

Starters: Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutchison, Happ Bullpen: Janssen, Santos, Delabar, Cecil, Loup, Rogers, McGowan, Redmond Infielders: Encarnacion, Lind, Goins, Reyes, Lawrie, Izturis Outfielders: Bautista, Rasmus, Cabrera, Sierra Catchers: Navarro, Kratz

Redmond should be kept as depth. Him and Rogers can be long relief/spot starters on this club, which will be needed throughout the season and if/when J.A. Happ has thrown 100 pitches after 4 innings in some starts. But anyone expecting Redmond to be as good as he was last year will be disappointed. I think best case he is a long reliever in the bigs.

So Izturis at 3B and Getz makes the team, or Izturis at 3B and Kawasaki makes the team? The latter can play short, so he might have the advantage. Yes, I know this is premature, but with Lawrie, you have to think about these things.

I think he will end up in the bullpen eventually. He doesn't have the command to make it as a starter, but maybe as a short reliever who only has to throw an inning he will be able to dial it in a little bit. His days of being a starting option at the MLB level are over.

2 ground ball outs (one DP) and a walk for Drabek (4 strikes, 7 balls).

Can Redmond outpitch Happ over the course of a full season? I'm not talking about comparing one inning in Spring Training, but realistically over the course of a season? Redmond doesn't have much MLB data to work with, while Happ has a ton of data that shows he is below average.

AA would have offered three years with two team options.

I think Ricciardi's tenure was screwed up due to Burnett's contract and injuries. If Burnett didn't have the opt-out and Marcum/McGowan stayed healthy, that 2009 team (which somehow had an 84 win pythag despite its s***** pitching after Halladay and Romero) would have been a legit contender. The 2008 team was criminally underrated; a 92 win pythag in an insanely stacked division, with the best pitching in baseball. If they could have kept that group together and healthy, I would have liked their chances in 2009 and 2010 of at least being the playoff conversation. Ricciardi's teams were good. Not good enough, but good. More than I can say for AA.

If Colby has a full season with numbers like last year, I think some team will sign him since he plays CF (if he was a corner OF then it would have been hit or miss). The issue with Rasmus is he has a few stinkers in between his two really good seasons. If he has another stinker, the Jays won't offer him the QO and he'll go somewhere else on a smaller deal (i.e. Josh Johnson). That's the risk from the Jays end. I think an extension would probably benefit and mitigate risk for both sides. I could see it happening, depending on how Rasmus feels about Toronto (and whether AA will be given the money to do it).

I'm sure we'll read a lot about how he is in the best shape of life, determined to win a rotation spot, etc, etc. Ultimately all that matters is what happens when he steps on the mound. I'm not optimistic about him, but if by some chance he regains even his rookie season form, it would be a huge upgrade to the rotation. I'm not holding my breath though. Get Brad Arnsberg on the phone, asap.

Stroman's career high IP is 111 and he has never pitched above Double-A. I don't see the upside in him starting the year as the 5th starter, especially since they don't have the "fear of PCL" excuse to justify promoting pitchers straight to the Majors from Double-A anymore. Let him finish with 150 minor league innings this year, or at least wait until June to promote him. He might be the best option out of ST, but that doesn't mean it makes sense from a development standpoint. Same goes for Hutchison (who lacked innings even before his Tommy John Surgery). Go with a tandem rotation of Rogers, Redmond, and McGowan for two months (have the hottest pitcher pitch and use the others in the pen to back that pitcher up).

It still bothers me that Aaron Hill was trash for basically two seasons with the Jays while no one in the organization had a clue how to fix him, then he goes to Arizona and Don Baylor fixed his swing in about 35 seconds.

If the team stands pat, I'd rather they keep Stroman, Hutchison, Nolin, and Drabek in the minors. Two of those pitchers are recovering from Tommy John Surgery and need some innings, while the other two have either never pitched above Double-A or just barely did. If there was ever a time for Ricky Romero to revert back to form it would be now. Otherwise, go with McGowan/Redmond/Rogers until May or June.

Thomas was very good in 2007, and probably would have been decent in 2008 had they not released him. The issue with the contract was the vesting option for 2009. Had that not been in place, then they would have kept Thomas for all of 2008 and his signing probably would look a whole lot better in hindsight.

Yep. I believe Godfrey was against going overslot in the draft, so Ricciardi did not have the freedom that AA does when it comes to drafting. Not that it would have made a huge difference, as I think JP was set in his ways back then and would have picked college guys anyway, but comparing drafting records is a bit misleading. If AA could not go overslot, then his drafts likely would not look as good either. No excuse for JP to draft as many duds as he did though. In hindsight, I wonder how the Jays (and AA) would have looked if Bautista did not blow up in 2010. On paper, that team look poised to finish dead last in the East that year, but surprised to win 85, and Bautista got even better the following year and they won 81 despite trading Wells and Marcum. If they were a 70-75 win team like they were projected to be during those two years, would we have seen the accelerated short-term moves in 2012? Probably not. The team would look completely different.

Yeah Ricciardi was pretty good at player evaluation at the big league level. He sold high on Hudson to get Glaus, and later sold high on Glaus to buy low on Rolen (who went on to have WAR's of 2.8, 4.1 and 4.5 through the remainder of his contract as opposed to Glaus who fell off the face of the earth after 2008). He got great value at the catching position seemingly every year (Myers, Zaun, Molina, and even Barajas wasn't terrible). He got Scutaro prior to his breakout. He believed in Rios even though his bat took a couple of years to catch up to his potential. He was able to identify Catalanotto's platoon splits and exploit them. And so on. Heck, one of the criticisms that I remember about his run early in his career was that he didn't value the Gord Ash guys, but if you look at the inherited players that he kept (Wells, Rios, McGowan, League, Johnson, Hudson until Hill was ready, etc) vs. the players he let go (Phelps, Lopez, Gross, Izturis, Lyon, Werth, etc), he was pretty spot on in terms of the players that would end up panning out (except Werth, though it took him a few years to reach his potential). He wasn't perfect by any means, but I can't recall a MLB move that I can look back on and say "damn what the heck was he thinking?". He was almost cautious to a fault with his trades. Again, it all goes back to the drafting. Tulo over Romero would have helped him greatly, for starters. Striking out on Adams, Purcey, Snider (in hindsight), Cooper, and Jenkins looks pretty darn awful. He may not deserve that much blame for later round picks, but I'm assuming he'd at least have an idea of the first round guys. Outside of Hill, and a couple of Romero seasons, he was terrible in that regard.

Yeah the JP teams from 2006-08 were pretty good. Even the 2005 team that had like a $48M payroll won 80 games despite Halladay missing half the year (88 win pythag). I thought his MLB moves, for the most part, were always pretty solid, especially in the last three years of his run (before Beeston set him up to fail in 2009). His drafting was just really, really bad. If he drafted a little better, and had assets to play with in trades (like Alex does with his drafting), he may have been able to trade some prospects for better vets. Unfortunately he was drafting older guys with limited upside, so his trade options were not very plentiful.

Ricciardi, at least towards the latter part of his tenure, focused on pitching and defense, and he always valued OBP. He just wasn't a good drafter. He was a terrible drafter, actually. Alex focuses on power, practically ignores OBP/defense, and so far has produced (at least on paper) a much better asset base in terms of players he has drafted (whether they pan out is another question). I think if you combined JP as a GM with Alex's drafting, the finished product would have been better. I can't recall a single prospect, other than Jayson Werth, that Ricciardi traded that ended up amounting to much, while Alex in a span of six months traded many that have the potential to really come back and bite the Jays in the butt (TDA, Syndergaard, etc). I mean, I'd prefer neither as GM, but between the two, JP was probably the better/smarter one.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 1m Aledmys Diaz also scouted today by Cardinals, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Giants. @FOXSports1