TwistedLogic

Lind and Lawrie moving had nothing to do with the clubhouse. Lawrie wasn't even part of the original proposal for Donaldson, but had to be included because Oakland didn't want such a big hole at third base. He also says that he moved Lind because he doesn't see neither Lind, nor Edwin profiling as a full season first baseman, and he knew he was going after a guy like Martin, so he basically didn't want to carry two DH-types on the roster when he could shed Lind's salary and afford somebody else. Tim and Sid seriously just asked AA if he's scared of losing his job. Really like AA's answer, he said that the thought of losing his job never even crosses his mind, because the second that it does, that's when people start making mistakes and making decisions that put their jobs ahead of the clubhouse.

Yeah, a few seconds ago he said that they wouldn't "rule out" spending a ton of free agent money on a reliever (in regards to Miller) but that it's not likely; they'd prefer to "spread the money around"

LOL, why is Ricky Romero the third most searched player on FanGraphs right now, behind only Donaldson and Lawrie? ....and why does Baseball Reference say his nickname is RR Cool Jay? *shiver*

Don't see a realistic scenario where Machado outperforms JD and Longo.

I do remember that, and it's the first thing I thought about when I saw Reddick's tweet. The difference here is that the Marlins have always insisted, every single step of the way, that Stanton was never going anywhere. That was just something people deduced based on everything else that happened. The A's on the other hand seem to be listening on all of their players. I do think it could play a factor, however small it may be, in a potential Reddick move.

Quote by Wilner: http://i.gyazo.com/8ba5d2f79a94766c5f770278164026ca.png Not sure about the legitimacy of the claim, as he himself points out "I’ll admit my research hasn’t been confirmed by the Elias Sports Bureau" (typical Wilner), but if true, that's a nice little bit of trivia.

Exact same sentiment here. I don't know anyone that's begged for an upgrade at 2nd more than I have over the past few years, but with the recent additions, if they can get an LF, I'll have no problem rolling out trash at 2B until Travis is up.

This tweet was re-tweeted by Josh Reddick: http://i.gyazo.com/d94a012ce51eec5b49b7efc21525c867.png Reddick has also openly criticized this deal, questioning why the A's traded away their "best player for the last two years". So I guess the sentiment in the clubhouse is that the whole twitter thing with Donaldson did play a factor to a certain degree. Oh well, if we see Reddick traded now, it'll probably go a lot further to prove that theory. Or maybe they go out of their way to hang onto him now to try and disprove those rumors. Regardless, if Reddick is on the outs with the A's, I'd welcome him with open arms to Toronto. A's got so many players still that make so much sense for the Jays; Reddick, Moss, Shark, Jaso, list goes on.

Maybe not even the best 3B to be honest. He's up there, but if Rendon is for real, then there's an argument. I feel like this has to be at least a bit of a factor. How else does it make any sense? The A's were adamant that Donaldson wasn't moving, and then he makes a bunch of tweets, and shortly after he's traded? And if this wasn't a factor, and cutting payroll really was the object, then how oh how do you justify signing Country Breakfast for $30M? It's such a weird situation. Alex calls you a few weeks ago, asks Donaldson, you say no. Now Donaldson does something dumb on twitter, ownership is feeling butthurt about it, Alex calls you again, this time you say "okay, well, what exactly did you have in mind?" I dunno, seems plausible.

In the event that Headley re-signed with the Yankees, there's actually a legitimate case to be made that Pandoval is the worst third baseman in the division.

Another side note, in regards to the A's... How the f*** do you lose Addison Russell and Josh Donaldson in the same year? Those two moves are the absolute extreme when it comes to trading away talent, on absolutely opposite ends of the spectrum. Russell is a dream acquisition for a team looking towards the future, and Donaldson is a dream acquisition for a team looking to contend for the next several years. If the A's want to contend, why would they give away a top 10 player in the game? And if there was absolutely any possibility of having to rebuild, how do you give up a top 10 prospect? Has any team ever given up such a premium MLB player like Donaldson, and such a premium prospect like Russell in the same season? How awkwardly do things have to f*** up for that to happen? So you commit to contending, you trade away Cespedes and Russell and put all of your chips in, and then at the end of a winning season, you're taking offers on Shark, Kazmir, Moss and Reddick? And then you trade away a superstar in Donaldson (who can help you both now and in the future) because of a slowly spiking price tag, but you sign Butler for 3/30? Even the Graveman and Nolin part of this trade is weird, because almost nobody in the majors has more rotation depth than the Athletics. Just such a strange, strange season for the A's.

Yeah, a week and a half ago, Donaldson took to twitter and basically openly talked s*** about ownership. It started with some random dude on twitter basically instigating Donaldson by asking how he's so accepting of a league min salary, and that he should push for more. Donaldson playfully (or not?) implied that he would push for higher salary ("you'll see"), probably referring to his upcoming arbitration case. Another random twitter dude implied that he should be happy with a low payroll as long as it saves the team money to pursue other players to build around him, to which Donaldson said that the team had plenty money, and they simply tell everyone that they don't. It's a bit of a clusterf***. Even if everything he's saying is true (it is), it does kinda show that Donaldson is pretty careless when it comes to discussing this kinda stuff openly in public and if he continues to do that, he'll probably rustle some major jimmies in Toronto, given how absolutely f***ing butthurt our media is about everything. Anyway, here are the tweets: A's fans seem to think that Beane has an ego and that he's traded away valuable players because of a clash of egos before. A lot of A's fans actually predicted a Donaldson trade after those tweets and were going on "I-told-you-so" tirades once it happened. I don't really care about it, but if that's what helped us get Donaldson, then great. All I'm hoping for is that Donaldson isn't a pain in the ass when it comes to arbitration. Arb is the dumbest reason for teams and players to develop poor relationships over, and it happens somewhere every year.

A's fans comments thread at AthleticsNation: http://i.gyazo.com/8a4bd8987eca40fcc5c4906b5a280aef.png In reference to Lawrie having a tattoo of the lyrics of Eminem's song "Lose Yourself". http://replygif.net/i/1485.gif

They need to get Saunders. If they get Saunders, or they re-sign Melky, I actually wouldn't be too terribly upset with some sort of Valencia/Izturis/Goins type thing going on at 2B until Travis is ready to show what he's got. Kinda wish we still had Lind, but if ditching him because they didn't want to pay a platoon DH 7.5M is what allowed these moves to happen, then oh well.

Heart skipped a beat for the same reason. Had to read the title twice.

Rosenthal tweet regarding Jays recent moves: Also as a side note, if the Yankees do end up re-signing Headley, that will put Headley, Donaldson, Longoria, Sandoval and Machado in the same division.

One of the best posts of the year. I'll probably be s*** on for this, but the recent hate for AA is overblown. I don't know what he really had to learn from; AA has always been a good GM. Sure he made some really f***ing stupid moves, like Napoli for Francisco, and Gomes for Rogers, but he's generally been really good at finding value throughout the majority of his tenure. I'm still not ready to fully pin the Marlins and Mets deals on him; there's always been that feeling that those deals were driven largely by Beeston and ownership. Even in the midst of that, he made a great value-conscious move in signing Melky to a cheap two-year deal at a time where he was being completely undervalued by the market for his PED use. The drafting under AA has been thoroughly superb. The scouting has been excellent. He's always done well in extending premium talent to incredibly team-friendly deals. And he does know how to trade. I'm not saying he's infallible, but even the best GM's do dumb s*** from time to time (see: Friedman and 2013 free agency, Dombrowski and the Fister trade, and Beane throughout 2014).

Isn't this the guy that broke a bunch of signings earlier in the offseason?

I didn't lump him in with Nolin and Graveman. My point was that he was an asset that was created by the Jays by simply giving up the money to sign him. They didn't need to use a high draft pick, they didn't have to trade anything to acquire him. IFA signings are mostly credit to a team's front office and scouting department, where they need to originally find these guys, recognize their talent, and then actually sell the team to the player to try and sway them into signing with their club as opposed to any of the other teams. I guess what I was trying to say is that while the Donaldson trade is an excellent move, the four moves that preceded it to make it possible were also excellent moves (Marcum for Lawrie, 5K for Graveman, 175K for Nolin, 1.45M for Barreto).

My desperation for the Jays to pursue Headley is somewhat tempered now, after that magical trade. I still think they should get him for 2B, if he'll be willing to do it, but I feel like Lowrie is a perfect option for this team now. I didn't like the injury history that accompanies him in a scenario where he'd be playing on the same field as Lawrie, but now that Brett's gone, Lowrie makes a lot more sense. Have him in the starting lineup, and if he gets injured, give Travis his cup of tea. He's even a switch-hitter; fits perfectly into the Jays situation. I still don't see any logical scenario in which the Jays don't sign Crain. I can't remember the last time a signing fit more perfectly with what a club needed. Canadian player, tremendous RP, extreme buy-low candidate after coming off injury. I don't believe for a second that the Jays will pursue someone like Miller or Robertson, and I'm actually hoping they don't.

This trade feels even better after you look at what the Jays actually gave up to ultimately make this deal happen. Nolin was signed four years ago in the sixth round of the amateur draft, Graveman was signed as relief of cap space for $5000, Barreto was signed from the IFA market, and Lawrie was obtained in a 1-1 trade for Shaun Marcum. The Jays created all of these assets without giving up anything of really significant value to obtain them, and then turned them into an MVP-level player.

And what we can also take away from that is that if ever there was a time to go nuts in free agency and overpay for a star pitcher, this is probably the year. Between the three marquee names (Lester, Scherzer, Shields), they've got a total of 0 collective DL stints over the past three years.

Very interesting article written by Jeff Zimmerman of MLBTR, on the importance and effects of "mileage" on a pitcher's arm, and how it does (or doesn't) correlate to future injuries. http://i.gyazo.com/58221e453a7b72c1eb362ac831f5fc04.png Agent Scott Boras has the prize of free agency in Max Scherzer, and Boras has taken to touting his client’s “pitching odometer.” Boras explained to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, “[scherzer] really has the [arm] of a 25 or 26 year old. This is like signing a 25 or 26-year-old pitcher.” Perhaps reflecting what is found in Scherzer’s binder, Heyman cited the following stats: “Did you know Scherzer, 30, has thrown 20,954 pitches, to 26,321 for Jon Lester and 29,461 for James Shields, the other top two free-agent pitchers in a top-heavy market containing three aces?” Scherzer has thrown 8,507 fewer pitches than Shields and 5,367 fewer than Jon Lester. This difference may seem relevant, but in the end it will not matter. Instead, the focus should be on the trio’s birth date. Context For Number Of Pitches Thrown When looking at the total number of pitches, the zeros get in the way. For each game started, an ace will throw about 100 pitches. Most aces will start 30+ times a season, so each healthy ace-level pitcher can expect to throw at least 3,000 pitches in a season. The number could grow even higher with longer starts, more regular season starts and postseason games. Just using 3,000 pitches for a season and looking at each pitcher’s age, Boras’ difference can be explained by prorating the pitches thrown back to their age-29 season (Scherzer’s age at the end of last season). Pitches prorated back to age-29 season Scherzer: 20,954 Lester: 23,321 Shields: 17,461 The number of pitches thrown really just comes down to age. Scherzer’s arm had less mileage on it than Lester’s arm at the same age, but more than Shields. The difference of 8,500 pitches may seem like a ton, but for pitchers four years apart in age, the number is completely reasonable. Pitches Thrown And Likelihood Of Next-Season DL Stint Now, is there a magic number of pitches when a pitcher’s arm just quits being healthy? Is 25,000 pitches the point? 30,000? My study finds that no magic number exists. Actually, the opposite is true. I looked at the career pitches thrown by pitchers from 2001 to 2012, then put the pitchers into 3,000-pitch groups and to find their chances of a DL stint next season. Here are the DL percentages for pitchers as they put more mileage on their arms. (Note: 39% of all established pitchers will go on the DL at some point the next season. (n) refers to the number of pitcher-seasons in the sample.) # of pitches (n): DL rate, average # of DL days per pitcher 6000-8999 (674): 36%, 24 9000-11999 (470): 39%, 26 12000-14999 (324): 40%, 29 15000-17999 (225): 45%, 33 18000-20999 (179): 37%, 29 21000-23999 (111): 42%, 26 24000-26999 (99): 39%, 24 27000-29999 (88): 39%, 27 30000-32999 (71): 45%, 38 33000-35999 (47): 34%, 27 36000-38999 (28): 50%, 21 39000-41999 (26): 38%, 27 > 42000(79): 37%, 23 There are some increases and decreases, but generally the DL rate hovers around the expected 39%. Here are the numbers grouped into 9,000-pitch blocks. # of pitches (n): DL rate, average # of DL days per pitcher 6000-14999 (1468): 38%, 26 15000-23999 (515): 42%, 30 24000-32999 (258): 41%, 29 33000-41999 (101): 40%, 25 >42000 (79): 37%, 23 It may not seem intuitive that pitchers will have a smaller DL chance as they throw more, but they do. At 24,000 pitches, a pitcher has been productive and healthy enough to be in the league around eight seasons. Besides just the number of DL stints, the time spent on the disabled list is just as important. The pitchers could go on the DL and stay there because of a major injury. If high-pitch pitchers were staying on the DL longer, the average number of days would be seen going up. Instead, they decline. Pitches Thrown And Expected Future Innings Pitched The three pitchers in question — Scherzer, Lester, and Shields — are each looking for a multi-year deal. How many innings can teams expect out of these pitchers in the future? Looking at the pitches a pitcher has thrown in his MLB career from 2001 to 2009, here are the innings thrown in the next five seasons. Pitches (n): IP 6000-8999: (468): 302 9000-11999: (364): 324 12000-14999: (249): 354 15000-17999: (176): 398 18000-20999: (129): 426 21000-23999 (86): 427 24000-26999 (81): 446 27000-29999 (68): 372 30000-32999 (45): 430 33000-35999 (32): 381 36000-38999 (17): 557 39000-41999 (18): 508 > 42000 (68): 476 And now the same data grouped into a few large groups. Pitches (n): IP 6000-14999 (1081): 322 14000-23999 (391): 414 24000-32999 (194): 416 33000-41999 (67): 460 > 42000 (68): 750 Just because a pitcher has a ton of mileage on his arm doesn’t mean he is about to break down. He could continue to throw for years to come. The more pitches a pitcher has thrown, the better the chances he continues to throw. The three pitchers in question have passed the threshold of being healthy and good. 2015 DL Chances For Scherzer, Lester, Shields Every pitcher (including these three) will eventually break down, we just don’t know when. An injury risk can be assigned to every pitcher. I have used a DL chance formula to determine the chance a pitcher will end up on the DL with accurate results. Using the formula, here their DL chances for 2015. Name: Scherzer, Lester, Shields Age: 29, 30, 33 GS (’12 to ’14): 98, 98, 101 DL Stints (’12 to ’14): 0, 0, 0 DL Chance: 34%, 35%, 38% These three pitchers each have health (no recent DL stints) and a history of being able to make about 33 starts per season on their side. The only difference among them is age, which makes Scherzer the least likely to end up on the DL. Boras continues to mention Scherzer’s pitching odometer as an advantage over Lester and Shields. However, the number of pitches thrown is not indicative of future injury. A high number shows the pitcher can hold up to the grind of being able to successfully throw for full seasons. The main issue between the three pitchers is age. Scherzer is four years younger than Shields. Scherzer’s body may still be able to hold up a bit better than the other pair, but they are still some of the healthiest pitchers in the league. The debate about the trio’s durability should begin and end with age. Not only does the above information tell us how durable the three ace pitchers on the market this season really are (very durable), it also tells us how overblown and exaggerated the "negative effects" of high mileage really are. It seems that pitchers with higher pitch counts are in no graver danger of getting injured than any other pitcher, and in fact, those high pitch counts are often an indication of better durability and a slightly higher resistance to future injury.

Lou is a damn beast.