TwistedLogic

BARRY MOTHERf***ING DAVIS! http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZWQ3YOMtJaM/UEsnJKgjdkI/AAAAAAAACo0/miO-N7XEaFA/s320/black-kid-oh-snap.gif #roasted cap filler

See I told you they'd probably play Doubront today.

Doesn't look like he's slumping to me. http://i.gyazo.com/ddf20d41abf259c1734530a3057d3adb.png

I just made that comment on another site. Of the 81 games the Jays have played, they've scored 3 or fewer runs in 32 of them, and their record in those games is 3-29. The offense either shows up or it doesn't, and when it doesn't, the team folds, because their rotation f***ing sucks.

I just wanted to post the thread so people had a place to comment, updated it with the preview.

http://i.imgur.com/Hb3IxzP.png http://i.gyazo.com/17b43513cabf869be26e4c1acf114575.png http://i.gyazo.com/ddf20d41abf259c1734530a3057d3adb.png http://i.gyazo.com/10e1602a43e90a073bcf75f5c1b67348.png http://i.gyazo.com/7145a871ba6743f51f66c78647811ab9.png Game Preview: In danger of dropping below .500 for the first time this season, the Detroit Tigers are not ready to panic but won't deny their collective frustration. They might not have an easy time keeping Drew Hutchison from recording a fourth straight winning start for the visiting Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night. En route to winning a fourth consecutive AL Central title last season, Detroit (39-39) never trailed the division leader by more than three games. After being swept in a three-game home set by Pittsburgh, the third-place Tigers are six back of Kansas City. "I know we're frustrated right now, outfielder J.D. Martinez told MLB's official website following Thursday's 8-4 defeat. "I think we've definitely got to pick it up a little bit. ... I feel like now, going into the (All-Star) break, is when we kind of need to make up ground." If the Tigers are to surge, they'll need to improve on a 6.20 ERA their starters have posted over a 5-9 stretch. "We need to pitch better - there's no question," manager Brad Ausmus said. Detroit, however, has averaged 7.3 runs while winning the last four starts by Anibal Sanchez (6-7, 4.63 ERA). The right-hander, 3-0 during that stretch, didn't allow a run over 16 2-3 innings in the first two but has given up seven and five homers in 14 innings over the last two. Three of those homers and four runs came in seven innings while Sanchez didn't factor in the decision of Friday's 5-4 win over the Chicago White Sox. "When he's giving up home runs, it's balls not located where he wants them," manager Brad Ausmus said. "They're in the middle of the plate - maybe slightly elevated. There's no secret to it. When he's locating them, he's fine." Sanchez is 2-2 with a 4.41 ERA in six starts against Toronto (83-79) and has not yielded a home run in the last four. Edwin Encarnacion has homered off Sanchez, but is 1 for his last 6 against him. Hutchison (8-1, 4.99) has a 1.65 ERA in his last three outings but he's failed to complete six innings in each. He struck out eight and walked three while throwing 97 pitches through 5 2-3 of Sunday's 3-2 win over Texas. The Blue Jays can use a longer outing from the right-hander after seven relievers followed Matt Boyd after he allowed seven runs without recording an out in the first inning of Thursday's 12-6 loss to Boston. "They were hitting everything he threw up there," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. Hutchison has an 8.92 ERA in eight road starts but is 2-0 thanks to a major league-leading 10.85 run support average. His only appearance against the Tigers came in a 5-3 road win on June 3 of last year when he gave up three hits and struck out seven without a walk in seven scoreless innings. Martinez and Alex Avila went a combined 0 for 5 with three strikeouts against Hutchison in that contest. Martinez, though, is batting .358 with 11 home runs and 24 RBIs in his last 16 games. Avila has hit .200 with two homers and eight RBIs in 22 games this season but could see his first action since going on the disabled list May 9 with a knee injury.

By RA9 WAR, Buehrle had an excellent season last year (3.9 WAR in 202 IP) and he's following it up with another very good year (2.1 WAR in 106 IP so far).

It doesn't matter what the hell he's looking at. If we ourselves wanted to have a debate about who is the better player between Smoak and Navarro (spoiler alert: it's Smoak), we could use advanced stats and projections. Using those numbers to question the lineup is useless though, because Gibbons is not looking at wOBA or WAR or any form of projections. Even if you take their career numbers and you want to tunnel in on some ******** like clutch hitting, Smoak has far better career numbers across the board. Navarro Men in Scoring: 78 wRC+, 661 OPS (887 PA) Smoak Men in Scoring: 104 wRC+, 716 OPS (601 PA) Navarro High Leverage: 66 wRC+, 636 OPS (351 PA) Smoak High Leverage: 89 wRC+, 678 OPS (245 PA) Navarro vs RHP: 78 wRC+, 677 OPS (2296 PA) Smoak vs RHP: 101 wRC+, 740 OPS (1592 PA) Literally the only way you can select Navarro over Smoak is if the only number you're looking at is career batting average against righties, and career batting average with RiSP. And if that's the one and only single criteria that Gibbons is using to determine which of the two batters deserves priority, then f*** John Gibbons.

Because those are the numbers that Gibby is probably using. I'm trying to figure out what his reasoning is for his decisions. Do you honestly think Gibby is looking at projections when he sets his lineup?

I used to believe that John Gibbons was a good thing. I now believe that John Gibbons is a bad thing.

http://i.gyazo.com/7c500856b79a1cac71afbf6460f51fd7.png http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=0&season=2015&month=29&season1=2015&ind=0&team=14&rost=1&age=0&filter=&players=0

Oh I know. WHY THE f*** IS A GUY WITH A 70 wRC+ HITTING 5TH?

Why? Smoak's OPS is 206 points higher than Navarro's. His batting average is 27 points higher. He has three times the RBIs (24 to 8). Even against righties, Smoak's OPS is 111 points higher than Navarro's. What number could Gibbons possibly be looking at that justifies "Navarro > Smoak" in his mind?

From May 15 to May 25, the Jays played 11 games. Martin caught 10 of them, with six in a row from the 15th to the 20th. Since June 18, Martin hasn't caught more than two games in a row at any point. In the last 14 days, he's had five days off.

Navarro and Smoak are both switch hitters. Why is Navarro higher in the lineup than Smoak? Why is Travis lower than Navarro, Pillar and Carrera? Martin only caught two days in a row after back-to-back days off. If Martin can't catch, why is he not the DH?

Dislike. Guarantees one of them will win at least two of the next three games, so if the Jays don't want to fall further behind, they'll have to win or sweep the Tigers series. Gose is so terrible. Only a fool would have bought into his early season. Oh and btw, I think you forgot something from your PM's, lol. Because if they had Doubront yesterday, they probably would have played him in the first inning and let him get him 5-6IP. If the rotation has another meltdown like Boyd did, Doubront can be used as a very long reliever in that instance. They can't afford another game where they use 6+ arms, they're just about to begin a 10 game road trip, and they're up against a slate of aces who'll likely go deep into games.

Despite the fact that Osuna gave up two hits, a run, and didn't induce any double plays, it only took him 13 pitches to get through five batters in the 8th inning, three of which were swinging strikes.

I'm not ready to write off the Red Sox yet.

This thread and your original argument had nothing to do with Guerrero. You said "this trade hasn't done anything other than save Rogers around 2 million dollars" and that's not true. The "equation" is DeJong + Locastro vs 2M cash and an unrestricted IFA signing period in 2017. Many people will say that that's a fair trade. Whether or not Guerrero was worth all of what it cost to acquire him is another debate (a sensible one, but a waste of time, because we won't know the answer for years). This trade with the Dodgers in and of itself was not as bad as you made it out to be. The target here was not to save money for Rogers, the target here was to free themselves of one year of IFA penalties. Any money they saved here will be spent then.

No, they still would have had to make the Dodgers trade. I don't know if you see baseball as a video game, but you can't just slightly reduce a player's value and find a slightly less costly clone. The IFA market is worked on for months, and sometimes years in advance. There's no player like Vlad that you would have gotten for 250K less, and if there were, he'd have likely been tied to another team anyway. I agree that the price they paid for Guerrero was huge, but that's the cost of premium talent on the international market. The Cubs gave Soler a $30M contract when he was 19 years old.

If Sale were to face the Jays, I fully expect the Jays to end his 10K streak.

The Blue Jays had a spending cap of $2,324,100. Every dollar above that cap would be taxed at a rate of 100%. The Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for $3,900,000. This amount was $1,575,900 over their limit. Taxed at 100%, this put the Guerrero signing at $5,475,900. This also limited the Blue Jays to a max spending of 300K per player in the next two signing periods. Chase DeJong was drafted in 2012, and signed for $860,000. Along with Tim Locastro, he was traded to the Dodgers for $1,071,300 in international cap space. Because all of the cap space they acquired from the Dodgers fell into the 100% tax overage, the Blue Jays actually acquired twice the amount of the slots in actual cash value. All in all, in exchange for DeJong and Locastro, the Blue Jays acquired $2,142,600 in real money from the Dodgers, and reduced their international signings restrictions from two years to one. The Blue Jays did not get an insignificant return in their trade with the Dodgers.

The three slots that the Jays got from the Dodgers ($545,900, $368,700, $249,000).

What a strange tweet. I guess he tried to add context with his next tweet, but none of it makes any sense regardless. Why does Papelbon care if the Blue Jays win or lose? lol

The Blue Jays original bonus pool was at a cap of $2,324,100. If they were to acquire the full 50% of that amount from the Dodgers in the DeJong/Locastro deal ($1,162,050), that would put their new cap at $3,486,150. An additional 15% on the new cap ($522,922) would give them a limit of $4,009,072 in which they could sign Vlad Jr and only be penalized for one year, as opposed to two. If the Jays had been able to sign Vlad for 3.8M instead of 3.9M, they'd have only gone 10% over their max cap limit, and would have been able to spend 500K per player next year, instead of the 300K limit that they'll now have.