Olerud363

When I get the chance I listen to Jays games on the at bat ap on the iphone. It sometimes keeps going when Mike takes calls... however seems to often cut him off early. So I rarely get to listen to him... or sometimes only a few minutes. Guess I should get the fan 590 app... looked for one a year ago but couldn't find it. Last year some guy used to call from down south in the states... and was a huge colby guy... it was always funning listening to them banter. Not sure if it was a relative of Colby's, or just a guy who watched him in high school. Anyway this is what Wilner can be good at when he tries... establishing a warm relationship and good repotoire with some callers. I guess I've never been exposed to his bad side that much. Don't get the chance to listen all that often. I also got on his bandwagon during the Cito episode. I want to attribute his flaws to the aftermath of CitoWilnerGate... but who knows. Maybe he is just flawed.

I wonder if something showed up in D'arnauds physical... or maybe the mets just had (legitamite) injury concern. The trade looks much more forgivable if there were serious concerns about D'arnaud.

I apologize because I think I was a bit rude to you in my reply. Thanks for being classy to just answer and not rudely. I guess the Farrell thing is more of a commentary on larger issues. I do not literally think that John Farrell himself, put randomly into any organization, would improve the teams on base percentage, that is he would not have any effect on it without buy-in from upper management. What I think that both Red Sox upper management and Farrell are on the same page and work well together. They like the same kind of players, and the same kind of coaches. I don't think that was the case in Toronto. I think we only heard the tip of the ice burg about why Farrell left.

Great post. This is the stuff I love. Snappy one sentence answers that mean nothing. No analysis, no thinking, no commentary, no view point. Just drivel. You and Beeston must be best buddies. The fact is that the Toronto Blue Jays are a bad organization. Stuck in a 20 year cycle of mediocroty. I'm always interested to hear ways to improve the situation. But hate posts that don't say anything. If you disagree with me fine. I think the Boston Red Sox are among the best 3 organizations in baseball. I find incredibly telling that they wanted John Farrell. I think John Farrell is going to be remembered with Torre and Francona. But the one sentence answer is part of the problem. "No just No". "Yes just Yes". I highly suspect guys like Paul Beeston have a lot of "1 scentence" meaningless interactions, but I can guarentee you that John Henry doesn't. One thing is for sure. You my friend have the team you deserve.

It's a trajic tale. Once upon a time there was a fiesty blue jays radio host... Surprisingly fiesty considering he looked like a dough boy (sorry Wilner buddy, but it's true). Living the dream. Nice family, nice house, great, great job. He was a heck of a guy and spoke up for the fans. He knew the fans (atleast some of the educated ones) didn't like Cito Gaston. So for us he took a stand and told Cito off. Rogers then put the muzzle on him. He got a suspension and hasn't been the same since. Now just basically a tub of glue spouting happy goofy pro-rogers propaganda.

This is why the Toronto Blue Jays are such a horrible organization. You can't have players with a .230 on base percentage. I mean you'd like to avoid players with even a .sub .300... but that will happen even on good teams. But sub .250?? And two of them. And Wilner won't even acknowledge this is a problem?? C'mon Wilner... you are better then this.

So if the manager doesn't have anything to do with on base percentage then who does (on the management side)?? The GM, the hitting coach?, the president?? All these people do. And one person can't change it by them selves. And that's my point. According to Lind Farrell didn't agree with Murphy. Farrell obviously believes deeply in on base percentage and was given a hitting coach who stated he "didn't believe in on base percentage." Farrell believes deeply in on base percentage and found himself in an organization that appears to not believe in on base percentage... why wouldn't he want to move on to an organization that believes in the same things he does?? It wasn't "dream job" because he's from Boston (he's not). It was dream job because he wanted to be with successful people who think like he does. So as I continue to update this thread I will give credit to five men... John Henry, Bill James, Larry Luchino, Ben Cherington and John Farrell. Because you are correct, it is not just Farrell alone who deserves credit... it is the five man championship caliber management team that deserve credit. The Boston Red Sox are the best organization is baseball... a team that retooled amazingly without giving up a single young player or draft pick. We should be giving them all including John Farrell incredible respect and admiration.

Since this is an on base percentage thread here is a list of key Red Sox and Blue Jays career on base percentages. Every team will have some guys that get on base, and guys that don't. But I this list makes the obvious point... the red sox are clustered at the top.... jays at the bottom. There are outliers... but the sox dealt with their sub .300 guy by sending him to pawtucket... our sub .300 guy is a rising superstar. I think this list shows why Farrell would be attracted to the red sox (not only dream job). The red sox not only respect on base percentage, but respect career statistics... while the jays seem to judge their guys on their "best" one dream season. 1. SOX Ortiz .381 2. SOX Pedroia .372 3. SOX Nava .361 4. JAYS Bautista .360 5. SOX Napoli .356 6. SOX Ellsbury .350 7. JAYS EE .345 8. JAYS Reyes .342 9. SOX Victorino .341 10. JAYS Melky .337 11. SOX Gomes .334 12. JAYS Izturus .332 13. SOX Drew .327 14. JAYS Lawrie .324 15. JAYS Lind ,.321 16. JAYS Bonifacio .319 17. JAYS Rasmus .313 18. SOX Salty .305 19. SOX Middlebrooks .283 20. JAYS Arencibia JAYS .269

If D.J. Davis was 20 and in rookie ball he should be shot... He was born July 25th 1994. He will be 19 in a month. And even that is to old for rookie ball (for a 1st round draft pick). For a later pick, an athletic guy who you take a chance on, fine. But 1st round picks should be out of rookie ball by their second year. I don't think I've ever seen a high pick repeat rookie ball. Snider went to full season, Gose went to full season, Sean Green went straight to Dunedin... I have never heard of a 1st round pick repeat rookie ball and end up being successful. So that is part 1 of my D.J. Davis complaint. The second part is strikeout to walk ratio. I don't care about anything else because the sample is small. But k/bb has less of a luck factor. His k/bb is 10-1. awful. And the Farrell thing... it is a commentary about smart baseball people going to work with other smart people. I am not saying Farrell is solely responsible for the red sox on base percentage... What I have been saying all along is that I think he left the Jays because they would not work with him to build a high on base percentage team.. they would not get him the coaches and players he needed for this. So Farrell left (in part) to work with people who would work with him to get the coaches and players needed for a high on base percentage team. Note that Farrell brought Butterfield with him, but (obviously) wanted no part of "his" hitting coach, Murphy.

So what?? What is your theory of baseball?? Why are the red sox doing well?? My theory is that the red sox organization is a sabermetric organization, john farrell is a very smart baseball man. Smart people find each other. You claim to be into sabermetrics but show no respect at all for the best sabermetrics organization in baseball. The boston red sox. Your as phony as they come. I wish you'd take the sabermetrics off your signature... it's a disrespect to true sabermetric people...

Jesus christ?? Argue with me if you want... but did you even read my post?? "And no I don't think John Farrell himself is completely responsible for the Boston offense doing well. But I think there is a synergy. Good baseball minds find each other, John Farrell left the Blue Jays for the Red Sox, not just because of "dream job" but because he wanted to be with fellow keen minds." And 10 at bat sample?? It's a 37 at bat sample... which is obvious meaningless. My concern is the fact that he's stuck in rookie ball, and not making any progress with the strike zone. He's almost 19. He shouldn't be 1-10 bb/k in rookie ball.

Your obviously not really a sabermetrics guy... sabermetrics, atleast the Bill James version isn't just overanalyzing stats. It's looking at all the facts, statistical and non-statistical and putting them together to try and form an overall picture of whats going on. We're often dealing with very small sample sizes so we need to add some more information. D.J. Davis is turning 19 soon, and has a 1-10 bb/k ratio in Bluefield. Do you know what Bluefield is?? Let me share some history with you. Up to 2007 the blue jays did not have a gulf coast league team. They had a team called pulaski in the Appalachian league, which is the same league as Blue Field is in, which is where Travis Snider went... 1 week after getting drafted. Snider blew this league apart. Mike Trout, when he was Davis's age was at Rancho Cucamonga, an A+ league, 3 levels higher then Davis. Xander Bogaerts was showing huge power in A ball... 2 levels above where Davis is. Even Anthony Gose was 2 levels ahead of where Davis is now. Bluefield is rookie ball... it's worrisome that Davis was sent there (instead of Vancouver)... it's even more worrisome that he's struggling with the strike zone in a rookie league... Maybe Davis will still be good... who knows. But still in rookie ball his second year AND struggling with the strikezone is not a good sign.

Youngsters on here should post this one on the fridge... Got this advice in various forms when I was young. Very true, very true.

Absolutely correct here. I have a friend who is similar (fat f***, lots of women). He is very confident and not afraid of rejection. I lucked out and found a good women... but if I was still in the game I'd play it as follows. I'd always have a list of 5 that I was working on. If your looking for long term have 5 that you see regularly and if you aren't getting anywhere with one go on to the next. If you're doing the bar scene... walk into the bar, scope out 5, and work your magic... not getting anywhere with one go onto the next. If you just focus on one you can come off as to needy. As soon as a women see's you going to talk to another she gets more interested.

If we take a look at the sox and jays offseason acuisitions we have the following (let me know if I missed some). Us: Izturus, Bonifacio, Cabrerra, Reyes, Thole Them: Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Gomes, Mike Carp. Sox actually got 3 power hitters... contact hitters don't necessarilly put up high on base percentages. The best on base guys we have right now are EE and Bautista. Waiver wire power hitters like Carp.

You are correct. It's not as simple as the coaches "telling" the players "not" to get on base. It's a complicated problem that starts from the day the players enter the organization, and actually starts the day before that when our great "baseball ninja" and "savy beast" and their crew decide what players, coaches, and consultants to bring in.

My breaking point was looking at D.J. Davis's stats in bluefield, and Deck McGuires stats in new hampshire. Even at a very young age the Jays are getting no where (in terms of plate discipline) with D.J. Davis. D.J. Davis... 1 walk 10 strikeouts, in BlueField... f'n short season. Travis Snider dominated that league in his draft year. Second year he dominated Lansing. D.J. Davis in year two, when Snider was blowing apart the midwest league, is still struggling in a rookie league... it isn't even considered A-ball. The same minds that brought you Deck McGuire (5somethhing era in aa in what is essentially development year 4) have brought you D.J. Davis. These things are correlated. And now because of the stupid 11 game win streak we get this s*** for at least 5 more years. And they get the 14th pick next year which they will mess up.

Farrell .350 team on base championship caliber team Blue Jays .312 team on base a team going no where, with nothing to hope for, nothing good, nothing meaningful. Yeah I'm negative sometimes. I'm not trying to troll. Several times I've laid out my view of the Toronto Blue Jays circa 1994-2013... but just so people understand where I am coming from here it is again. The Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in an endless cycle of mediocroty. They win 75 to 85 games. The organization is full of crony politicians. On base percentage is very important. That is "captain obvious" as someone said. I follow on base percentage closely... not only for the sake of on base percentage itself, but because I think it is a good surrogate marker of the overall health of an organization. A good organization, like the Boston Red Sox, has a high team on base percentage because they are a terrific organization and run by very smart people. This shows up in many ways, The team on base percentage is ussually high. They retool with smart pickups, they acquire a group of players (dempster, victorino, gomes, drew) that they can buy low (in both dollars and young players), that are sabermetric pickups. They retool without giving up a single young player or draft pick. A high team on base percentage indicates a good organization... a smart organization that can react well to problems. If a pitcher such as Ricky Romero or John Lester starts to fall apart mid career an organization with a high on base percentage can fix him, while an organization with a low team on base percentage cannot. Not that on base percentage itself has anything to do with pitching mechanics... it is just that both problems are to be addressed by the same minds. A high on base percentage indicates a smart organization. A smart organization can fix problems. So John Lester will atleast get his career stabalized while Ricky Romero will not. If a team has a high on base percentage they will tend to find the old "slop-baller" on the cheap, a Ryan Dempster. The team with the low on base percentage, run by inferior minds, will go for the more expensive (in terms of young players) R.A. Dickey and Buerhle. And no I don't think John Farrell himself is completely responsible for the Boston offense doing well. But I think there is a synergy. Good baseball minds find each other, John Farrell left the Blue Jays for the Red Sox, not just because of "dream job" but because he wanted to be with fellow keen minds. So in the end we had an 11 game winning streak... which is part of the endless cycle of mediocroty. Without it we would of won 65 and maybe something would of been done to end the cycle. But the cycle continues for... well at least several years more. The 11 game winning streak was part of the cycle. The 11 game winning streak means the Jays win 79, or 77, or 83, or maybe even 86. Or maybe 78. I don't know what the number will be. Just a number of hopelessness. The 15th overall pick to be wasted on a Deck McGuire type or a D.J. Davis * and the same s*** next year. There are no good young players. No farm system. No developing an exciting young team. No high round draft pick. No exciting player to follow in the farm. In a lot of ways this is the lowest it's ever been. #Beastly. #itneverends. *(note that good players don't spend 2 years in short season. Mike Trout was allready contending for batting titles and on the top prospect lists at this point... even Anthony Gose (as good as he is turning out) was holding his own in full-season.

Based on a larger injury-plagued sample dating back to July last year. I have no doubt that if truly healthy Brett Lawrie would be fine. Truly healthy meaning not just in the lineup... but healthy and in the lineup. I have my doubts that he will ever be healthy... one thing is a fluke. But in 2011 there were 2 hand injuries (the second occurred with 1 week left so no one noticed... but would of been a 2 month injury). In 2012 there was the rib thing, which affected his hitting quite a bit. 2013 rib again, and the ankle sprain. Has been playing... 6 weeks out of the last 4 months?? Has been really healthy... at all?? Injuries can ruin a career... and 5 major injuries in 2.5 years is quite a bit. To me the injury load is just to much... he's missing to much development time... and if it happened 5 times it will likely happen many, many more times. I started a thread looking at guys that started real young and real injury prone and came on to have great healthy careers... Gary Shefield was the only one I could think of. I've said it before, but at 23 Lawrie reached the stage Gruber did at 29 or Sizemore did at 26... without having 3 or 4 healthy years.

2011 Brett Lawrie, an illusion, a fluke, but man... I wish that was real. 2013 Brett Lawrie, a punk, a waste, a knuckle head. worst of the worst. 2011 - our whiz ninja GM finds a home grown canadian star. 2013 - turns out our fat stupid waste of space GM just found a injury prone, attitude problem that can't hit.

This wasn't meant to be a doom and gloom post. My main point was AA has now put himself in a place to be ripped apart if the Jays win 87 and miss the playoffs. The reason is that he's now actively decided to continue to support Boni. You cannot have a player play full time and put up a .230 on base average. At some point you have to give up on the player. What point is that?? With the roster crunch AA had the perfect opportunity to cut bait on Boni... or go to a 7-man bullpen and make Boni a bench player. He chose not too at this point. Maybe the choice will work out. But if it doesn't this will be remembered as a day where the Jays lost a couple of wins.

Actually AA allready demoted both Lind and EE and any team could of had them. These situations were different. There was really no Mr. X who was playing better then Lind/EE at the time but got the demotion instead.

That is my point though. The 1998 and 1999 teams had a tonne of talent that performed well. In the end they were an mid 80s win team missing the playoffs by a few games. In retrospect one could point out a few little moves that made the difference. There are several key players as you mentions. But AA doesn't really have control (as of now) over wether Dickey's back holds out and he gets movement on the knuckleball, or wether Lawrie comes back healthy and plays well. What he can control are the various little roster moves the rest of the way. That is why I compared Cruz and Kawasaki. The Cruz demotion cost the Jays a win or two. The Kawasaki demotion might too (based on Boni and Kawasaki's present production). So that is why AA now has to win big. If he loses biig he's going to be ripped apart. If he loses small every little move will be nitpicked (as it was for Ash).

I ask all these idiots to take a look at the videos of Boni's extra base hits and Kawasaki's. Both have about the same "power" tool, both have about the same "hit" tool, Kawasaki has a better "defense" tool (he can play short stop). Boni is a bit faster. But Kawasaki can bunt and has a better stolen base percentage. Ridiculous stuff. If it was a body building competition ofcourse Boni would win infinite to nothing... but when you look closely at the "tools", speed, range, the arm, the way the ball comes off the bat... it's incredibly close. When you consider actual baseball skills, pitch recognition, jumps, etc. Kawasaki is way better.

Thank you. A simple, obvious, but overlooked point. Kawasaki has good defensive tools. If he didn't he wouldn't of played 50+ games as a major league short stop.