https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/
Good read regarding Chapman.
TL;DR: Chapman has the major’s third-highest average exit velocity on fly balls, and he’s in the top dozen in both projected distance and xwOBA, but those shots just aren’t doing the damage that’s expected. Perhaps as temperatures rise, he’ll have better carry and better luck.
Based on his EV, Launch Angle, Distance etc, his expected AVG on flyballs should be .364, expected SLG should be 1.370, xwOBA .729; he is basically a combined -0.481 on those metrics to his live stats.
That doesn't obviously let him off the hook for chasing sliders in 3-2 counts in bases loaded situations, every single time he is up in such instances. Instead of playing protect the plate for fastballs and taking a walk on anything off-plate, but it is something to understand that of all the people on our team, he has been the most gibbed.