Solaxys

bref; I don't think the Off on fangraphs is actually a WAR metric.

Obviously this can be an absolute horrible take, but the Vlad I saw last year is not the Vlad this year. He was pretty close to Kirk last year: 12.3% BB rate, 15.8% K Rate This year, he's chasing like he can hit any bad pitch out of the park (like his dad) and its getting exploited. He hasn't stopped doing it. He is guessing a lot of the time instead of taking a solid approach of sitting on the pitches he can drive and walking otherwise (like Kirk does, like he did last year). I don't know what the physics of launch angle issue is but you don't go through a full season of 700 PAs and forget how to do it again, that like makes 0 sense. You don't fix something mechanically, have a MVP season, and then forget how to do it. Maybe he got lazy over the offseason? maybe he thinks he has it made? maybe the league has indeed cracked him and he can't get it together? is 2019/2020 vlad the actual vlad and he got lucky last year? Who knows. I hope he figures it out. But until he does, a contract is a bad idea. If he does, then f*** it, pay the premium and sign him.

I'd suggest just looking at oWAR since Vlad's defensive issues really didn't help the last three years, where he definitely has gotten better this year. Olreud: 1.6, 1.3, 3.1, 7.5 = 13.5 over 2178 PA (0.0062) Vladdy: 2.3, 1.0, 6.6, 1.6 Extrapolating 2020 and this year to full 162 + rounding up for benefit of doubt: 2.3, 2.7, 6.6, 2.9 = 14.5 over 2556 PA (0.0057) --- At the end of the day, if Vladdy does not figure out how to get his GB% back down and recognize pitches like last year, not sure he's going to be worth the premium. The Jays don't have the capital to compensate for mistakes (like the Yankees/Dodgers or Mets this year do) and considering we have some heavy contracts already and contracts coming off in 2024 that need more influx of cash to capitalize two more years of contention, we better be damn sure Vlad is worth the capital and will produce 5-6 WAR as he is projected to rather than 2-3 WAR.

Just that one time, it was something good/reasonable. Just once though.

I remember Pat Tabler saying once on broadcast which I thought was the smartest thing he has ever said live. Paraphrased: for a player to be considered bad, good, or elite at the MLB level, he has to show it in back-to-back years. You look at Miggy's statsheet, he has had 3 straight great years (ages 22-24), and then 8 straight elite years (ages 26 - 33). Unreal.

Just curious on this, how? fWAR at 1.7, bWAR at 1.6 where we already played 90 games (more than half of 162). Unless he goes on an absolutely massive offensive tear, he can't be projecting more than 3.5 WAR. One thing to note though is his defense has improved quite a lot.

I think we just all miss the Vlad from 2021, who collectively accumulated 3.03 WPA for the first half of the season, where he is at 0.67 now. Aside from his 3-HR game against Cole, nothing he has done comes to mind immediately and starkly. The single that won the Sox game was all right, but its not a exclamation point. All I remember him this year for is his celebrations, media quotes, and balls going through his glove. Might be logical fallacy, but personally that's it. Vlad was an absolute feared hitter last year even when he was slumping; this year, not so much, everyone knows the 'trick' to get him out or at least get him to ground out. He's late on hanging sliders/middle-middle fastballs (if you look at his splits, his pull% is down by 4 while his centerfield% is up by 6% - so things that could be HRs are just warning-track flyouts), gets Teo-esque levels of fooled by away/down pitches (O-swing went by 5%), GB% still 7% higher than last year (closer to 2019/2020 than last year), his soft-contact overall went up by 6% while hard contact went down because he is chasing those outside pitches, grounded into 14 DPs (when he only did 20 the entirety of last year). Shrugs. 'Field' metrics do not change any of those %s (so we can't attribute it to AAA park that most of baseball likes to say). Not sure what changed, why his stance changed (and changed AGAIN like a week and a half ago), why he regressed to 2020 shenanigans and hasn't adapted despite having 300+ PAs already, etc. etc. etc. The entire expectation of WS was predicated on Vladdy being 2021 Vladdy, so understandably when he isn't performing to that level, we should all lower our expectations for the ballclub as well. That 8th inning 3-pitch K BS is still in my mind; perfect time to do damage and take the lead and he just went up there guessing on 3 pitches against a 10 ERA pitcher. You just expect more from your two-time all-star "hitting savant with mammoth power".

Unless Kirk comes cheap, you wait for at least another year to see if he can replicate these insane numbers (11% Walk Rate, 9.6% K Rate, .406 xWOBA, .883 OPS, 2.9 WAR through half a season while not playing every day - like, actually wtf.) Just as with Vlad and Bo, the league might adapt (and maybe they kind of did: he's 94 wRC+ in July with .341 SLG) and we have to see if he can rebound. He has exactly the same issues Vlad does wrt health metrics, and thankfully he is being rested frequently to alleviate fatigue (while Vlad plays mostly every day). I am still apprehensive of the speed and the need to use DH as a workload regulation spot than a true powerhouse slot, so unless Kirk can repeat these numbers (which I hope he does), got to tread lightly. Kirk is under control until 2027 and his first ARB is 2024, so we can definitely see what happens next year. Same with Moreno - he has yet to show any power whatsoever up here (his SLG < his OBP up here and barely staying above in AAA across 156 ABs). He's athletic as f*** though, so maybe there's some development to be made. As with Kirk, unless he comes super cheap, you wait. There's no reason to commit until he can either show power or utility in multiple positions owing to his athleticism. I rather sign Jansen to a team-friendly contract until this window closes (2025/2026) than take a gamble on Moreno.

We should be murder row for lefties yet we don't do well against them, its like the bafflingest of bafflingness this season. Three hitting coaches and not one figured out what the f*** is happening there lol

By yesterday's Jays, yes; today's, no.

Mariners comeback from a 5-run deficit; gonna lose our WC spot today if Texas doesn't win. Edit: nvm, we'll be tied with RSox for 3rd spot; Mariners will take WC2

Lefty/lefty but Mayza went yesterday is the only thing I can think of & last time Cimber pitched to a lefty, the ball left the park.

This is an interesting move.

okay 10 ERA dude, we can't chain hits; now that feels like s***.

well look at that groundball

Our xBA is .371; we need to rehire and then fire Charlie so we get the gods from yesterday back on our side

We're hitting their pitcher pretty hard with nothing to show; it'll come around

4th hard hit, nothing to show

Every inning has been spicy heh

We can't get these AAA guys off bases lol - the ol' KC Royals are back at it.

Another warning track lol

Oof that was missiled --- warning tracked

he popped up lol, rip.

Outmatched by Zepra