Guest: Any other bluejays close to the list?
12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Alan Roden. Lemme pull up his report for you
12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Roden has posted god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and he’s done so in pro ball while making several significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. In 2023, he was given Craig Counsell’s batting stance and a big leg kick, while his hands were lowered closer to his ear in 2024. The changes have helped Roden, who turned 25 in December, to access more power without trading off much contact…
12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: He slashed .293/.391/.475 split between Double- and Triple-A in 2024, running a 93% in-zone contact rate and 83% overall. His measureable power (37% hard-hit rate, 103 mph EV90) was a shade south of the overall big league average, but comfortably below what is typical for a corner outfielder. The short-levered Roden is best at accessing his power against breaking balls that finish middle-in. It’s against these pitches you can really see how much his swing allows him to use the ground to help generate power. Well-executed backfoot breaking balls, however, are Kryptonite to Roden’s bat path; he struggles to scoop those, and swings over the top of them. He’s adept at flattening his bat path to cover high fastballs to drive them the other way, but tends to expand the zone against them a little too often…
12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Roden received heavy consideration for the Top 100 list. Three things shaded his grade down into more of a platoon role. He’s much more chase-prone against fastballs and with two strikes (both relative to his chase in other counts, and to the big league average with two strikes), which suggests that his excellent walk rates from the minors will dip in the big leagues. He’s also a boxy 25-year-old, and I worry that he’ll be subject to athletic decline during his six-year window of team control. Roden is not currently on Toronto’s 40-man, and the Blue Jay’s big league corner outfield situation is very, very crowded. It’s imperative for things to shake out among the Loperfido/Barger/Lukes/Wagner group pairing with George Springer and playing opposite Anthony Santander. It might not be until 2026 that Roden, who will then be 26, gets to entrench himself as a Pavin Smith type contributor.
12:24