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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    I understand this POV, but .... there's nothing out there to lift that really "heavy" amongst free agents. I don't buy Bellinger as a consistent 5+ win guy. It's clear MLB clubs don't either. There's some "would be cool to have" guys, but nothing that screams "add him and you're all but guaranteed playoffs" The heavy lifting needs to come from the guys already in house. Vlad for sure has to be at least a 4WAR guy minimum (ideally 5.5+). Varsho needs to be 3 minimum (ideally 4+). Springer needs to bounce back to 3+. Kirk needs to find that consistency. Those 4 guys alone trending up is the real heavy lifting. a breakout or random career season from someone else would be nice too from a guy like Schneider, Biggio, a healthy Jansen, or even a reliever not named Mayza, Green or Romano.
  2. John_Havok
    I'd say if there was no dark cloud of the BS over him, then yes for sure. But the guaranteed PR nightmare is a valid reason not to sign a guy without it crossing into collusion territory. It would be a very Tampa move to grab him though. Nobody watches their games anyway and it would only become a thing for visiting teams media on the road which could be shut down rather quickly with a few interviews demonstrating even the tiniest amount of admission that he understands why he is a PR nightmare and accepts even the tiniest shred of responsibility for his situation. Not guilt....responsibility. He does that and he's signed tomorrow.
  3. John_Havok
    Yeah i get that. Its just if you look at totality he's still provided massive value on his arb years so for me it's hard to get mad that he's getting paid this year when he put up MVP numbers for 600K in 2021. Whatever the $ per WAR numbers are at, he's already provided 10 WAR for about 23.5 million in salary Alonso really is the best comparable, and hes put up 14.5 for 23.3 million. Alonso has been more consistent for sure, counting stats are 192/498/402 in terms of HR/RBI/RUNS for Pete and 130/404/377 for Vlad. PAs are within 100 of each other so that's a wash. Awards favour Vlad with Hank Aaron, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, All MLB 1st Team, 2nd in MVP voting and 2 AS games including AS MVP. Alonso has ROY, 3 All-Star Games. If anything, Alonso and his agent left piles on the table when he got to arb the first times, which is now costing him even more piles now.
  4. John_Havok
    If you look at the totality of his work from year 0 to now, with comparables, the MVP #2 amd the Gold glove, given the way these things are decided, it was an easy win for him honestly. To all those who were taken in by random weirdos on Twitter “hearing” things….oops.
  5. John_Havok
    It's a sliding scale for sure but... spending money doesn't guarantee championships in MLB, all it really does is give you a higher probability of making the playoffs over time. Like anything with numbers, there's always exceptions on a single season basis, but when you look at playoff appearances over the long term, the more you spend, the more appearances you make in the playoffs. People fall in love with the DBacks, but there's a decent chance they put up more wins this season (say 86ish) and miss the playoffs entirely vs last season when they squeak in with 84 wins
  6. John_Havok
    Any particular reason why this random twitter guy is being hailed as a reliable source for the Vlad hearing outcomes when legit journalists haven't mentioned anything? 50/50 he's right without "hearing" anything
  7. John_Havok

    NHL Thread

    John_Havok replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Yeah it was a great watch. Gotta love the timing though, going to tie an NHL record win streak and have a long layoff between games. Nobody wants to stop playing games when you're winning. On the bright side (for them) they get Anaheim next so can start a new streak again in pretty short order.
  8. John_Havok
    Who's AveryChenier? Nobody.
  9. John_Havok
    Doesn't look like it https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/roster/40-man
  10. John_Havok
    The Vlad will be like..."Ya but 2nd in MVP 2021 and Gold Glove 2022" And the arbitrator will be like .."Vlad wins."
  11. John_Havok
    As “disappointing” as Harper has been, if you redid his draft in hindsight he probably still goes 1-1, just slightly ahead of Machado and Sale
  12. John_Havok

    NHL Thread

    John_Havok replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    For sure. Thats a great return. If you squint, the player himself they got back slots right in for Lindholm on Calgarys roster, plus 2 D-men prospects that havent even signed their entry level deals yet, a first rounder... like the conditional 4th doesnt even need to be there for the return to be amazing. What Toronto got to offer for Tanev?? Understand Im not a Flames fan its just that given my proximity to the city it dominates the sports news cycles
  13. John_Havok

    NHL Thread

    John_Havok replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Nah, Calgary knows they aren't making the playoffs and Vancouver is unlikely to resign him imo when Petterson is UFA after the season and they'll be focused on him.
  14. John_Havok
    I know, it makes no sense, but when you see multiple guys struggle offensively, and see the same trend in their batted ball profiles going from pull heavy to more centre/spray at the same time, it makes me wonder.
  15. John_Havok
    If I had to guess, I'd say it's almost like they want all the guys to be similar hitters rather than focusing on what makes each hitter great and just limiting the flaws.
  16. John_Havok
    How about dem Braves?
  17. John_Havok
    You know how it is, if someone hasn't heard of prospect X that must mean nobody else has either.
  18. John_Havok
    Yeah it's hard to leg Vlad's openness to coaching. On one hand, he clearly took advice on things between 2020 and 2021...but then got worse in the two seasons following. So...one could reasonable fall on 1 of 3 scenarios ... Either he never actually took any advice prior to 2021 and succeeded inspite of that, then continued to change nothing and subsequently got worse, or He did take advice prior to 2021 then rested on his laurels and stopped taking advice and subsequently got worse..or He continued to seek advice after 2021 but got the advice was horribly wrong and he got worse. Injury could have also played a role in the worsening outcomes regardless of whether he did or didn't take advice in any of those years
  19. John_Havok
    Also true. Fortunately theres not a ton of sweeper dominant starters out there. about 100 MLB pitchers in total used sweepers at the start of last season according to some MLB article i just read, and my guess is the majority of them are relievers. I havent looked up any data to back that up though. Ohtani throws one of the best though.
  20. John_Havok
    I think the lowest profits in 2022 was Cleveland at 38 million. Currently the team is valuated at 1.3 billion. Now, DickPole could probably explain this far better than I could, and 3% (38 million out of 1.3 billion) doesn't look like a lot for annual returns on it's own, but when these teams are raking in tens of millions in ancillary income that doesn't get reported on the MLB team's books, that 3% turns to much higher % very quickly. And Baltimore in 2022? Baltimore had the highest profit margin of any team in 2022. Revenues 262 million, EBITDA of 65 million for a margin of 25%. 1.7 billion valuation. Other teams had higher EBITDA in terms of actual dollars of course, like say... Boston at 72 million, but with their much higher revenue of over 500 million, their margin was only 14% with a much much higher valuation. Don't let these small market teams fool you. They're making tens of millions every year on baseball and other streams related to baseball and can absolutely afford to spend more on their product, they just choose not to.
  21. John_Havok
    Situational deficiency imo, rather than a chronic one. Without a legit LH power threat in important PH situations (especially playoff ones) it's a bit easier for opposing team's managers to work their bullpen to their advantage.
  22. John_Havok
    I get your reasoning but…what’s the realistic alternatives in the FA market that would have address the LH power issue knowing Pederson wanted a specific coast and Bellinger wants more money and years than any sane org is willing to pay? Ohtani was never coming here. Seems like a lot of the frustration is centred around this FA crop being overall pretty s***** overall without much in the way of realistic improvements, especially in the LH power hitter department.
  23. John_Havok
    Conversation and stating things with certainty are two different things. I can state with certainty that people here who state payroll specific things with certainty, are idiots.
  24. John_Havok
    Still hits lefties very well...140 WRC+ against them last year and 125 career. Just keep him off the damn field. Between him and IKF, they've just recreated Chapman
  25. John_Havok
    Because it's true?
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