Jays are 77.6% to win the division and 63.2% to clinch the bye.
The bye is more important than being the 3rd best division winner.
Yeah, I guess we do cheer for Boston against Houston now? That is weird to say.
Jays have 3x HOU, 3x BOS, 3x NYY on their remaining schedule. Other teams are CHC, TEX, MIA, PIT, MIN, MIL, CIN, BAL, TBR, KCR. So, for the most part no other realistic direct competitors.
Boston has HOU x2, NYY x7, TOR x3, DET x3
NYY has HOU x3, DET x3, TOR x3, BOS x7
NYY and BOS will beat up on each other for those 7 games and Toronto still has 3 games left against each of them to step on their necks. We are probably, uncomfortably, hoping BOS and NYY take some wins from HOU and DET to be honest.