Laika

Sometimes. It’s a case by case basis. It would be hard to justify a mechanical overhaul to a player like SWR in light of the results to date. I’m assuming he also does not have a horrific arm action like Osuna... it’s probably just a bit late

Injury risk. If a pitcher's arm is not on time it increases stress on the arm. This is perhaps the biggest reason Roberto Osuna was sent straight to the bullpen.

Most players have home/away splits. I don't care about them very much in any given season let alone a very shortened one like 2020. xwOBA does not care about park though. It's just EV, LA, and speed I think. Completely neutral. Completely disagree with his offense being a function of Yankee stadium. He should be fine anywhere.

Manoah had an elite statistical profile in college. Arguably the top D1 player based on stats alone. He missed bats, had good control, and a good batted ball profile. He was also able to get opposite handed hitters out even without much of a changeup. Law's concerns RE: SWR are based partially on mechanics. But, SWR is also a control + strikeout guy without an amazing batted ball profile. The one blemish on his MiLB stats is a tendency to give up line drives. Perhaps he is filling up the zone with non-elite stuff? The number of pitches someone has can be focused on too much. Give me a guy with a 70/60/45 arsenal over a guy with a 55/55/50/50 bag, or whatever. Just playing Keith's advocate, here.

I don't think there's an elephant. 2019 wOBA - .375 (517 batted balls) xwOBA - .384 2020 wOBA - .422 (175 batted balls) xwOBA - .355 extremely good xwOBA figures in 2016 and 2017 too. Even if leaving Yankee stadium will decrease the HR totals a bit, those are probably just turning into doubles.

Fangraphs thinks Semien will cost more than LeMahieu. Either player helps Toronto a lot IMO but I have some personal fears with Semien. He was a shite defender until recently and has been a below average hitter in the vast majority of his seasons. DJLM's last two offensive seasons have been so fundamentally sound that his bat inspires a good deal of confidence going forward, confidence that I don't have in any specific part of Semien's game.

There is already talk about cities basically bidding on being the Raptors' contingency plan for next season. The Blue Jays will have an ironclad contingency plan that probably sees the organization get most of the gate revenue. I know that does not do much for lost impulse season ticket sales, but I'm not sure the uncertainty about where 2021 will be played for Toronto really matters allllllll that much.

Swap out Jansen for Kirk and it might be a top 1 offense

Kluber is cooked.

Baseball free agency moves very slowly

In this market I'm thinking a bunch of veterans, including Archer, will end up signing one year deals for insignificant dollar amounts. $1M to $8M range and the decisions will mostly be about player preference (city, playing time, etc.)

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-offseason-bold-predictions Bauer to Jays? J.T. to Mets? 7 bold predictions 1. The Blue Jays will blow your mind Hey, Blue Jays fans, how does adding Francisco Lindor sound? Or how about Trevor Bauer? Or in the immortal words of a little girl on an Old El Paso commercial that became a popular meme, “Why don’t we have both?” OK, so the "both" idea is crazy. But … not necessarily impossible? (Important legal notice: I am not responsible for the unmet expectations of Torontonians should any of the following not actually happen.) As of this writing, the Blue Jays’ payroll is projected to be under $80 million, well below what it would have been in 2020 had the virus not intervened. Bauer is one of the most fascinating free agents in history, given his past stated preference for only signing one-year deals (a stance from which he has already begun to backtrack), his outspoken social media presence and the simple fact that he’s the only free-agent starter coming off an elite season. Doing a one-year deal would be ridiculously risky for him, but I do think it’s possible that Bauer signs a shorter-term deal -- perhaps three or four years -- for max average annual value, and the Blue Jays are a team that could pull it off. And while Toronto fans despised him during the 2016 ALCS when he pitched for Cleveland, they’ll get over it if/when he’s grouped with Hyun Jin Ryu and Nate Pearson atop the rotation. 2020 Free Agent: Trevor Bauer Oct 24, 2020 · 0:29 2020 Free Agent: Trevor Bauer Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins have a history with Bauer from their Cleveland days, and they have a history with Lindor, too. Yes, they already have a fantastic young shortstop in Bo Bichette, but they recognize the need for an established presence in the lineup and their need to improve defensively. They also have the farm-system depth (MLB Pipeline ranked them seventh in the sport) and, again, the financial room to get a Lindor deal done, with Bichette shifting to third. The cost for Lindor will likely not be as punitive in these circumstances as it would normally be. Put Bauer and Lindor on a team with a bunch of burgeoning stars, and you’d have to talk about the Blue Jays as a serious threat to win the World Series next season. I don’t know that even one of these things will happen, let alone both. But I do know a big move is well within the realm of possibility for Toronto, and that makes it an interesting club this winter.

I'm thinking about it, or something similar.

How old do you think Mr Clean is? What race do you think Mr Clean is? You’re probably a shorter, uglier Mr Clean who smells like Axe instead of lemons

lol, man, there are a lot more fish in the sea than the ones who were on your tv last year

I didn’t say that, I just said I’d rather pick up Anderson’s option than give Walker whatever he gets

JBJ complements the current OF extremely well since he is a great CF and a LHB. I think it would be wrong to think of any of the four as a 4th OF. They'd all play a lot and Buntoyo could do lots of cool stuff playing matchups and making defensive replacements etc.

Not clear the Rays even tried to give him away. Morton destroyed his own leverage by admitting that he really only wants to play for Tampa and might retire if they don't pick up his option. He lives in Florida, is at the end of his career, etc. I think Tampa has decided to call his bluff. They'll probably just sign him back for less guaranteed money.

Fangraphs contract estimates are up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/ Honestly, give me basically everybody at these numbers except for Realmuto and the other handful of players who Toronto just doesn't need. I don't see many bad contracts. Not sure I would target Gausman, Hendriks, Walker, Bradley Jr., Melancon, or Colome at these figures but if that's what Toronto ended up with I would not be unhappy. I just really hope there is a legitimate investment in the team this offseason. They need to do it based on the developmental stage of the roster. It would be such a shame if they got shy because of MLB's economics. It does not need to be Trevor Bauer or George Springer either - it could be a handful of smaller deals. Just add talent, anywhere. Even if the bat isn't an obvious fit, if the player is good bring him in. Sign some solid relievers if the FA starters are being pen-shy.

Probably tougher to move him in this economic climate but I agree and think if the team was motivated they would end up finding some sort of contract swap. Grichuk for a SP or RP who is making a bit too much money.

Hard to think of a worse manager for that team. Hahahahaha this is hilarious.

2021 Steamer Hyun-Jin Ryu: 3.1 fWAR The rest of Toronto's pitching staff combined: 3.0 fWAR (part of this is Steamer incorrectly projecting everyone outside of Ryu/Roark as pure relievers, but the point stands. the pitching side needs a lot of help)

Makes all the sense in the world for the Toronto Blue Jays but I wonder if they'll even get the chance to claim him The economics in MLB are going to lead to a lot of reasonable options getting declined. Sergio Romo yesterday

Kevin Cash messed up, at some point, no matter how you slice it. Maybe it was pulling Snell too early in game 6. Maybe it was going to Nick Anderson in game 6. Maybe it was leaving Glasnow in way too long in game 1. With the Snell/Anderson decision his brain is probably thinking - "It's Mookie Betts. With a man on I'd prefer a RHRP in this spot, especially considering this is Snell's third time through the order. I know Snell is dealing but I think whether or not a SP is dealing can be a mirage. I know Anderson has been bad this postseason but the sample size is small and he is our best projected RHRP." With the Glasnow decision he admitted to leaving him in because he thought, despite the pitch count, that Glasnow was their best chance to get some specific key strikeouts. He might have also been thinking about the series as a whole and acting on a desire to not burn through his pen in game 1. It's tough to see how the Glasnow and Snell decisions make sense together and they probably don't. BUT it's easy to appreciate how hard it is for a manager to make these decisions. All the data in the world can actually make managerial decisions even harder and we can probably appreciate this from the above. A human being still needs to make the call, in a pretty short decision window, of what to do. Cash needs to wrap his head around Snell's talent going forward in that situation, Anderson's projected talent, etc. Things develop quickly. If Barnes doesn't single to CF maybe Snell pitches two more complete innings.

Anderson's sudden decline in the playoffs was so bizarre. Cash might have just assumed, to the bitter end, that it was nothing but randomness.