Laika

Imagine if the Padres swoop in and sign Sugano for like 3/$36. On the day Lindor goes to the Mets - Blue Jays fans would be super sad.

Weird to think that a guy his age would return to Japan with a mind to try MLB again next year. If he does return to Japan it's probably because the Yomiuri Giants just decided to offer him way more money than he thought they would.

Pretty mediocre return for adding Carrasco, I would say. Rosario is okay but more of a 2 or 3 year placeholder, now entering arb. He's a player who is kind of playing at his floor so maybe there is upside left. Gimenez is a slapdick prospect who you would just expect to be as good as Rosario. He has trade value though as a 50 FV six year infielder. Don't know much about Wolf and Greene but they are further away HS picks.. Dasan Brown types I guess. Makes me wonder how much more then even got by adding Carrasco. Shouldn't Lindor alone have been able to fetch Rosario, Wolf, and Greene? HMmmmmmmmmmmmm

I don't disagree, but he's a big 2021 sleeper candidate for me. He hasn't been worth his contract but he's a dude to watch. He could still be worth it and there are serious signs of life.

Kikuchi might be fine. He had a solid 2020 if you look past the ERA. Velocity was up too.

So Sugano is taking this down to the wire (5 PM ET) and wants to match or beat the Kikuchi deal. The Kikuchi deal is: $10M $16M $17M Then four $16.5M team options that must be exercised together BUT there is also a player option for year 4 at $13M. So the guarantee was 4/$56M. Seems like a lot for Sugano mostly considering his age. Kikuchi was 28 in year 1 of this contract, Sugano will be 31. In terms of NPB performance, Sugano's stats are better than Kikuchi's career stats across the board but Kikuchi had a couple of strong years before coming over including a 2017 where is K rate was way up and his walk rate was way down. There was a narrative of stuff improvement for Kikuchi IIRC and MLB teams may have liked his ability to translate over because of his stuff. Sugano might also be willing to accept something like 3/$39 from an MLB team and this is all just firm negotiation. We will see!

Sugano a ninja? Maybe he's already signed and no reporter has the scoop

He's probably ignored by a few posters, lol

Sugano to the Angels I think. 4 years.

Stuff on Sugano too:

Lower long-term cost would just be one of many factors.

Blake Treinen 2/17 to the Dodgers. 1M buyout on a year 3 option. Actually a hair above the FG Crowd and MLBTR predictions.

Robbie Grossman 2/$10 to DET Seems... high? Didn't expect him or players of his caliber to get anything more than one year deals, really.

he's a real firecracker

stfu Mike

A new stadium will probably have turf too, if there are teams trending towards it in MLB.

Synthetic Grass: Globe Life Field features a specially designed synthetic grass playing surface that was provided by Shaw Sports Turf with installation completed by Texas-based Paragon Sports Constructors. The choice to go with Shaw Sports Turf was rooted in data, and supported by extensive research as it relates to player safety. The goal was not to only have the highest performing synthetic grass but also to have the highest performing surface for baseball. GLF’s playing surface is the B1K natural system, which employs a natural, sustainable infill called Geofill. The system results in excellent ball surface and player surface interaction. B1K is a dual fiber turf system comprised of Shaw’s high-performance Strenexe® XD slit film and Bolt® monofilament. This system provides excellent durability and functionality by minimizing the infill from “splashing,” maintaining adequate infill levels across the field. The Bolt fiber provides realistic ball roll, friction and natural grass aesthetics. The Geofill infill used in the system is made of coconut husks and fibers, which is a rapidly renewable resource. The infill requires much less water than natural grass. A concrete subsurface is the base of the turf system, which is extremely flat to accommodate the turf system, its buildup and layers, a drainage mat and a shock-resistant mat. The infield and warning track will be clay surfaces, There will also be a retractable mound for easy storage during non-baseball events on the field.

Sugano day is a big deal for me. Every time I try to play my $50M game above ^ I end up with Toronto signing Sugano. Just seems like a real upside play without much risk. I mean if he is an SP4 instead of an SP2, Toronto still isn't going to feel the contract... but if he is an SP2 the WAR profit is large and could vault the team into a top ~5 MLB squad. (check the projections - any significant additions have Toronto leap-frogging multiple teams in projected WAR).

I think my intent was that total team payroll would only go up by $50M or so. I doubt they add that much 2021 payroll! Would be neat but I would be shocked.

Yeah. Here is your confirmation that Toronto will have to offer him 3 years, though:

Spanky was angry last night. Grr.

You wouldn't pay the best projected reliever in baseball that??? Will Smith Sr got 3/40 last year...

So it's the end of an era, obviously. What would blowing it up look like?

Say you have $50M in AAV you can spend. No going over. Assume these contracts: Bauer 5/150 ($30 AAV) Springer 5/135 ($27 AAV) Realmuto 5/100 ($20 AAV) DJLM 4/80 ($20 AAV) Ozuna 4/76 ($19 AAV) Paxton 3/57 ($19 AAV) Semien 3/54 ($18 AAV) Tanaka 3/51 ($17 AAV) Didi 3/48 ($16 AAV) Hendriks 3/45 ($15 AAV) Turner 3/45 ($15 AAV) Brantley 3/45 ($15 AAV) Simmons 3/39 ($13 AAV) Kluber 1/13 ($13 AAV) Hamels 1/13 ($13 AAV) Sugano 3/36 ($12 AAV) Odorizzi 3/36 ($12 AAV) Pederson 2/20 ($10 AAV) Wong 3/30 ($10 AAV) Walker 2/20 ($10 AAV) Quintana 2/20 ($10 AAV) Happ 2/18 ($9 AAV) Hand 3/27 ($9 AAV) Archer 1/9 ($9 AAV) Cesar Hernandez 2/16 ($8 AAV) Garrett Richards 2/16 ($8 AAV) Treinen 2/16 ($8 AAV) Puig, La Stella, Hill...1/8 ($8 AAV) For anyone else assume the AAV here: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker or just use $5M if there is no prediction there. (you can assume that smaller $1M and $2M additions don't affect payroll) Who are you signing? Two big fish or spreading the money around?

We don't really know how much payroll they are willing to add. They had payrolls north of $160M a couple of years ago. 2021 projected payroll is a pittance of that. What is it, like $75M tops? They have the room to add a lot. I don't think signing Sugano makes them out on anybody. I mean, if you are giving Springer a $30M AAV it would be stupid to stop there... the team's pitching is the biggest problem. I could see them rolling over the $120M payroll mark for the right combination of players. I don't think they will approach $160 any time soon. I think they will also try their best to avoid any contracts that could interfere with potential extensions for the core.