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Nox

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Everything posted by Nox

  1. Nox
    Obviously an awful trade for Detroit. Really bad.
  2. Nox
    +1. This was probably Friedman's best transaction.
  3. Nox
    My god Stoeten is a f***ing knob.
  4. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Another potential golden transaction. CHP, can we get your stamp of approval here?
  5. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    What in my summary did you not say or imply? Why would I want to be creative in the above post? The ad hominems that you resort to are fairly indicative of what you have to contribute to the discussion. Or maybe you're just particularly snarly the day after a bottom 5 team in the league hung 6 on your precious Buds.
  6. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    CHP Troll's Notes -Tyler Bozak makes Phil Kessel better -The hockey market is efficient -Shot differential has no correlation on point totals for the Leafs only Any other key points I'm missing?
  7. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Tyler Bozak is probably a replacement level player. Yet he was signed to top 6 fwd $. Really interested to hear why this was a good idea.
  8. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    "Shots don't win games" "Not all shots are created equally" "Hockey metrics are bad" Blah blah blah
  9. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    I feel like this would be a fun little exercise. If 4 years of purely golden moves = -10 (per game!!!!!!!!!) shot differential, I suggest shorting this metaphoric gold.
  10. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Just going to quote this in case you try to delete it.
  11. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Good thing they didn't trade a legit prospect for him or anything. Oh wait.
  12. Nox
    Poor Boxy
  13. Nox
    Projection systems do this. FIP, SIERA and TIPS aren't even meant to be predictive. They just happen to be. Kind of.
  14. Nox
    Well, this goes back to what I've said in another thread. WAR should really only be used for projections. Using it to look back at past performances isn't a good use of it. WAR can tell you what a player's past results are worth but it doesn't tell you how lucky (or unlucky) they were to obtain them. That's really not it's fault, as that's not what it was designed to do.
  15. Nox
    Mom's Basements November 25 Power Rankings 1) Porn 2) XBoxOne/PS4 3) @CCBreakingBlue 4) Stuffed animals 5) Porn You're a big star now! But in all seriousness, good work. The articles you've written are worthy of the attention they've received.
  16. Nox
    I'd be quite interested to see what they're doing exactly. First thing that comes to mind is maybe they're including all players and not just FAs and then people are just miss-using the number?
  17. Nox
    Who does that here?
  18. Nox
    But really, I don't understand how people cite $5M per WAR bc Fangraphs quoted that like 5 years ago. Are we really supposed to operate on the assumption that there's been 0% contract inflation since 2008? That's completely illogical, even without looking at a single number.
  19. Nox
    The data fairy.
  20. Nox
    Projected value is what WAR is designed for. It's an economic tool to evaluate potential trades and signings. To be honest, retrospective looks at player performance using WAR is one of it's biggest misapplications IMO.
  21. Nox
    Matt Swarz, Hardball Times Annual 2011. His number was just shy of $9M. I have reproduced the "study" (RE one fairly simple SQL query) in the past and came within a quarter million. The main thing people fail to realize when thinking about this is that we need to look at the actual number of WAR produced on the FA contracts. You don't pay for past WARz, you pay for the future WARz produced under contract. For example, if a 3 WAR player in 2009 and signs a 2 year FA contract before the 2010 season, we sum his 2010 and 2011 production and see how that compares to the $ he was paid. Rinse and repeat for all FA contracts and you get your league wide #s. Doing this by hand is obviously a colossal pain in the ass. With all the new money in baseball I'm guessing we would find this number is actually north of $10M this offseason.
  22. Nox
    Darrell doesn't understand why the great creator of the Darrells can't make this simple adjustment.
  23. Nox
    " ' " != " , "
  24. Nox
    It's killing me that I can't find the definitive paper (IMO) as to why short pitchers are at a disadvantage. It was from a physics Phd and his argument was entirely based on optics (the field of science, not the synonym for general perception). It's all about the plane created by tall pitchers and the lack thereof for shorter guys. The effective velo due to the way our eyes function is influenced greatly by this (the same is true for extreme side armers). I was fully of the opinion that short pitchers are unfairly judged but this made me reconsider. I've almost done a complete 180 and I'm very leery of small guys. The funny thing is, the traditional reasons why scouts hate short pitchers are almost completely ********. I really wish I could find where this paper was published. I've looked on and off for probably 6 months now and can't find it. Argh.
  25. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Gotta get the unstoppable Brooks Laich and Jason the "Ice Cheetah" Chimera more burn. Not to mention newly minted sniper Joel Ward. That team is really horrific. They'd probably be the worst team in the league without Ovi.
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