How optimistic can Blue Jays fans realistically be about right-hander Jeff Hoffman? What's his realistic outcome, floor and ceiling?
-- Michael D., Toronto
Jim Callis
Hoffman had a chance to go No. 1 overall to the Astros in the 2014 First-Year Player Draft and likely wouldn't have gotten past the Cubs at No. 4 had he not injured his elbow in late April and required Tommy John surgery. Teams obviously prefer that their first-round picks don't have elbow reconstruction on their résumés, but with his talent and the track record of Tommy John surgery, there's plenty of cause for optimism.
A healthy Hoffman had a mid-90s fastball capable of hitting 98 mph, a big-breaking curveball and a deceptive changeup. He showed the potential for two plus-plus pitches and a third plus offering, combined with a good pitcher's frame and projected solid command.
Hoffman has a ceiling of a legitimate No. 1 starter and that hasn't changed. Though Tommy John surgery comes with no guarantees, so many pitchers have regained their stuff afterward that there's no reason to think he won't as well. Barring further injury, he should become at least a mid-rotation starter for the Blue Jays.
The only significant change to Hoffman's outlook is his big league ETA. He might have reached Toronto before the end of 2015 if he hadn't been hurt. Now 2017 is a more realistic goal.