It's pretty big, so I'll just do the top 20:
1) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Not only is Goldy a slam-dunk to sit at the top of this list, but he’s so valuable right now that he gives some of the brightest and youngest stars of this generation a run for their money across other positions. In other words:
2) Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
3) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
4) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
I’m on record saying that I don’t think Rizzo is quite as good as he’s currently being made out to be, and I’m not convinced he’s either a first rounder right now, or will be one over the remainder of his career. However, the only other guy here who is right now is Cabrera, and Rizzo has more than six years on him in the right direction. Abreu, on the other hand, is nearly four years younger than Cabrera and is not enough of an upgrade this instant to trade the end of a peak for the prime of one. Abreu will spend the next four years in U.S. Cellular and his contact rate improved during his second year in the United States. That leaves him with the potential for some .300-30 homer seasons before he reaches free agency. Cabrera still has the most 2016 value of this bunch, but even though he’s one of the great hitters of this generation, he’s still approaching his decline and injury phase—which will reduce his long-term impact.
5) Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
6) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
In many ways, these are two similar ships passing in the night. Votto had the bounce back in 2015, which buoyed his dynasty league value mostly due to the resurgence of his power. Hosmer had his strongest fantasy season to date and still has plenty of supporters who believe that more power is yet to come. However, the great thing about Hosmer’s dynasty league value is that he doesn’t need to hit 25 homers to be a consistently high-end fantasy first baseman.
7) Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers
8) Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
9) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
This one may be the first group that gets a “huh” from the crowd. Both Encarnacion and Freeman get plenty of support from their sides of the spectrum (E5 from the “now” contingent and Freeman from the “there’s got to be more here” crowd), yet they both sit behind Fielder, who is not held in the same esteem across many leagues. The question is why that’s the case. The question marks were valid heading into 2015, as he had come off major neck surgery, but played in 158 games (just as Fielder does) and continued his great contact rate (just as Fielder does), only with a tinge less power. Encarnacion is great and wonderful, but when the 30’s come, give me the player who has a better track record of health and batting average. Freeman, on the other hand, will mire in a terribad Braves lineup for the next couple of years and just doesn’t have the upside to surpass either 30-something slugger ahead of him.
10) A.J. Reed, Houston Astros
This may seem aggressive, but as the depth on this list exposes itself to you—both in the aging and the only moderately interesting—the value of a potential top-five first baseman sticks out. That is what we’re dealing with, as Reed could be a .280-.290 hitter with 30-plus homers, and he could be in the majors as soon as the second half of 2016. In fact, he’s exciting enough that I had this commissioned from the one and only @holly_holl:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images2/AJ_Reed_1.png
11) Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
12) Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
13) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
14) Lucas Duda, New York Mets
15) Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals
16) Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
17) Evan Gattis, Houston Astros
18) Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
And here starts the glut. Pujols and Gonzalez are aging and no longer put up the impact numbers of their primes. That said, Pujols did hit 40 homers last year, and if he can stay on the field, is a threat to approach that number again (though it comes at much more of a price than it did last decade). Gonzalez has been very consistent, but the batting average has drifted down to the barely helping range and expecting more than 20-25 homers going forward isn’t a great bet. Belt and Duda fall into the same bucket here but for different reasons. Belt’s health is always a concern and his strikeout rate requires more power output than he’s shown. Duda is generally on the field, but inconsistency has plagued him and held him back from taking a step towards the next tier.
Who knows what we’ll get from Morales in 2016, but the 2015 version was mostly the same one that Angels’ fans saw before his freak injury back in 2010. Of course he’s much older now though. Santana is still on the right side of 30, for now, but just can’t get enough traction with his batting average to move much higher than this. Gattis is DH-only, and unlike Prince Fielder, who knows when/if he’ll get any positional eligibility. My heart wants to put Zimmerman higher up on this list, but he’s just not a good bet to stay healthy. If you could guarantee me 135 games, I still think he could push .270 and 25 homers, but there are other wishes I’d ask for first.
19) David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
For a player we know is retiring after 2016 to rank in the top-20 on a dynasty list, he has to be pretty special, and Ortiz is just that. I’m having a sad thinking that this is the last time I’m going to get to put him on this list.
20) Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates