The two cases could not be more different. For one, Bauer admitted to the activity, which apparently violates MLB's code of conduct, and this was confirmed by an independent arbitrator. For Franco, there are non-incriminating pictures and allegations. He has made no admissions.
Since Bauer admitted to the activity, criminality hinged on the question of consent. In the Franco case, there is a question as to whether the alleged activity occurred at all. Unless MLB has some evidence, it is difficult to see how a lengthy suspension is justified. They may be able to justify a suspension, and manage their liability risk, by using the fact of settlements (which will be confidential) as evidence of something inappropriate. The duration of the suspension is anyone's guess.
It has been suggested that Franco started the relationships when he was a minor, which if true, would certainly complicate things.
I'm so confident in the eventual outcome that yesterday I made an offer of Bichette for Franco+.