Jimcanuck

A walk takes luck out of the equation though ie. hitting a bullet right at a player If the aim of the players is to win, they will prefer the walk every time

I think it was TL who commented that this board is much better than it used to be. And I will continue to help keep the discussion baseball related, and push back on comments such as yours.

and that's all i ever said

I already posted links that refer to this effect.

Reasonable. Thanks for the support.

Generally linear but less so for teams with strong offense / weak pitching and weak offense / strong pitching. There will be a skew for such teams.

Same concept. The other link I posted is specific and supports what I said. By the way, no need to make a baseball discussion personal.

If we were only talking about individual players, you could look at wOBA or wRC+ (or their cumulative counterparts) and be done. However, research has found that run scoring based as a function of these underlying events is not completely linear and that really good offenses typically score more runs than you would expect given their standard wOBA. BaseRuns addresses this problem. https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/ Took less than a minute to find the backup lol 4.6 Pythagoreon Intuition The relationship between wins and run differential isn’t perfect there are some circumstances that could some marginally different outcomes. Such as teams that when they win, win by a lot. This would cause you to have a high run differential for one game, but the win would only count as one win. If the team’s losses are closer in nature. this can have a compounding affect. And would lead to a team “beating” it’s Pythagorean winning percentage. A team that is over performing its Pythagorean could be considered lucky. It is also possible for teams to under perform their Pythagorean. A team that wins many of its games by only one run would have a low run differential and a higher win percentage. Winning a large number of close games is often attributed to luck, but it could also be a factor of team strategy. A good pitching staff paired with a weaker offense could produce a result like this. We can test this theory by seeing if teams with a top tier closer are more likely to under perform their Pythagorean Win Percentage. https://rstudio-pubs-static.s3.amazonaws.com/364713_31ea7e36210f40319036a083731bb2d4.html

Yes noise but a team with offense as a strength will have a higher run differential than a team with pitching as a strength. And it would not be a surprise if the team with good pitching has the better record. A good offense will beat up on bad pitching ("good hittin'") which skews the differential. Not a linear relationship between W-L and run differential.

No idea what was going through Montoyo's head. Probably just the standard closer in the 9th thinking. Agree Romano (or Murphy?) should have been brought in.

I'll let you decide what is fair from your end

The current troubles are all on the FO, IMO. Montoyo's late inning options are meh, s***, meh, and s***.

Just looked at your team, wanna send me a Ketel plus something for Seager offer?

Seager is about a week away from returning. Still time to get your offers in for Nelson Cruz or Corey Seager.

Spanky has done a 180 and is in my good books now. He doesn't master bait others like he used to.

There's like a ~3 MPH difference in average fastball velocity between MLB and AAA. So yes.

Ok. Urena?

Goins 2.0? Most likely, he gets a cup of MLB coffee.

JD can't stay healthy, and his D is average now and will only get worse

What about Vladito, Bichette, etc? Yes, prospects can be frustrating, but the truly elite guys you don't move to increase the chance of winning a WS from 15% to 19%. And Martin is elite.

Maeda and Cruz from the Twins

One of them might. I can see Teoscar doing it. All four, never.

Give the save to Vladito

Slapdick McGuire

LOL, I need to get into this league