For fun I asked Chat GPT to sus it out, going back 15 years.
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A) Top-10 WAR / Cy Young pitchers who reached Arbitration-3. This is the smallest group — it’s relatively rare for true aces to go year-to-year all the way to Arb-3.
David Price (Tigers) — Arb-3 2015 (record arbitration salary)
Corbin Burnes (Brewers) — Arb-3 2024, then traded
Trevor Bauer (Reds) — Final arb year 2020
Even among top-10 WAR pitchers, very few actually walk the full Arb-1 → Arb-3 path without something intervening.
B) Top-10 WAR / Cy Young pitchers who signed extensions. This is the dominant outcome for elite pitchers their teams want to keep.
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) — Major extension in 2014
Jacob deGrom (Mets) — Extension in 2019 (ended arbitration entirely)
Max Scherzer (Tigers) — Extension before free agency
Chris Sale (White Sox) — Early extension buying out arb
Corey Kluber (Guardians pitcher"]) — Extension covering arb + options
Justin Verlander (Tigers) — Extended pre-free agency
Zack Greinke (Royals) — Extension early in career
Gerrit Cole (Astros) — Extension after trade, before FA
Blake Snell (Rays) — Extension buying out arbitrationL
C Top-10 WAR / Cy Young pitchers who were traded instead. This is the second most common path once salaries spike.
Gerrit Cole — Pirates → Astros (2018)
David Price — Rays → Tigers (2014)
Corbin Burnes — Brewers → Orioles (2024)
Blake Snell — Rays → Padres (2020)
Shane Bieber — Guardians → Blue Jays (2025)
Max Scherzer — Tigers → Nationals (2014)
For top-10 WAR / Cy Young pitchers over the last 15 years:
Most common: ✍️ Extension
Second: 🔄 Trade
Least common: ⚖️ Playing straight through to Arb-3