NorthOf49
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Okay I have a few free minutes right now so I'll see if I can pump out a News and Notes piece. Yay do it! I like that article concept a lot. People will think it's click-bait hyperbole but it isn't.
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Pen fluff is fine, since they actually have a good pen and some relievers aren't getting their due from Gibby or the media (Hendriks, Lowe, Cecil). If you want a negative piece idea, you could write about how Dickey and Estrada are liable to fall apart, leaving the Jays rotation in a bind. Rotation depth is an issue.
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I just meant that in the sense that I want to help you come up with easily-written articles. I'm aware of the struggle. I think of fluff as being the cheerleading "Player X is great/Jays are so good!" article. Among BlueJaysPlus's last few articles are "Ryan Goins changed his approach," "Josh Donaldson is amazing," "Chris Colabello is really good," "this is the best Jays team ever." That's what I don't like writing... biased/sensational stuff. Catching up with the team by running down some news and offering objective opinions doesn't need to be fluff.
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No they aren't! It'd just be a bunch of links, a comment on the Hutch decision, a comment about Dickey's option situation, a comment on Tulo and a comment on Donaldson's MVP campaign. Good, cheap content. Did you know you've only written one article (the Martin pop-ups one) in the past month?
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Ok. I would like to get the news and notes articles happening though. They're a solution to the whole thing where we don't like writing fluff pieces about how the Jays have been playing well. You can run down the news and offer positive and negative opinions.
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I'm very busy this week, not expecting to get anything published. Next Monday-Wednesday I will be completely free and am looking forward to being able to pump out multiple good posts. GD, it would be nice if you could write up a quick news and notes piece for tomorrow. Just 500 words with some points about the team's bullpen, Tulo's struggles, etc.
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Someone could churn out a "Liam Hendriks is just as good as Roberto Osuna" article pretty quickly. You'd only need 700 words and people would find it compelling.
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This year he wouldn't because of the strikeouts. Over his career he probably comes out okay. The hard hit stats are what carry him though and are why the Jays keep playing him.
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GD, can you edit the initial post with the ideas suggested? I like the idea of an "idea board."
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Tango/MGL talked about this recently, probably on the Tango blog. I believe it is indeed 17%. They should definitely try Osuna as a starter. If he started in the minors this year (beginning at Dunedin or New Hampshire), he'd probably be a call-up candidate right now as a starter. So they wouldn't really be rushing him. The issue is just that he'll be 21 and doesn't have many pro innings.
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I'd probably include a paragraph on his defense. Also, try to put the stats in context better; mention how Smoak compares to other major league hitters. Maybe this could mean a scatter plot comparing K%-BB% (either direct or weighted with HBP using wOBA -- create a quick "production on non-contact PA" stat) and Hard% over the past five seasons. Smoak will perform pretty well in both and you can point out which other players are around him. You mention his hard-hit stats and plate discipline, but then also mention a whole bunch of other stats so the reader will get confused about what's important and think you're just cherrypicking stats that make him look good. The theme is that he has decent discipline and also hits the ball hard.
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GD, any thought of re-starting Bird Seed? We could really use a regular bullet points post that runs down the Jays news and offers some saber-inclined opinion. Include links to other Jays blogs; it seems that if you include them in your links posts, they start to include you in theirs.
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Publishing tomorrow morning: Aaron Sanchez Approaches Batters Differently As A Reliever http://www.breakingblue.ca/?p=3053 (My first R non-scatterplot graphics in post)
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- Do extreme ground ball pitchers give up more infield hits, in same way extreme fly pitcher pitchers get more infield flies? - Do players play better or worse in the years before and after the Blue Jays? - Single-start SwStr% patterns - Explain how a good closer can actually be as value as a mid-rotation starter, after accounting for leverage - Patterns in managers who beat Pythagorean expectation (could be written from Gibbons point of view) - Do pitchers pitch differently after errors than they do after other balls in play or following bad umpire calls? - Count-leveraged zone percentage (really like this idea... could unlock zone% as a useful pitcher concept) - Aaron Sanchez count/zone contrast (almost done) - Quantifying the batted ball bias in ERA Feel free to offer suggestions to these and even adopt one for your own article.
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GD, that would be a useful extension, sure. Feel free to create a thread where we can keep track of these ideas. Including article ideas. I have a bunch of ideas but can't get to them all and it would probably foster idea generation too if we shared.
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Baubau, when you're finished writing your article, you can post in here and we'll edit it. We usually post first thing in the morning, so if it's done late on Tuesday then 8-9 am Wednesday would be a good publishing time.
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GD, are you going to update TIPS (and xxFIP)? I don't know about xSeries. It may not be useful... talk me into it. Anyway, on that note, I was scrolling through Blue Jays Plus as I'm wont to do (I just like seeing what other blogs are putting out), and I came across this paragraph about Chris Colabello: Where did they get those numbers? They read like our stuff but they aren't our specific figures and the source isn't cited. Anyway, the analysis in the article is meaningless. I'm confident that Baubau can crush it with his Smoak piece.
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Justin Smoak would be a great topic. The media thinks that the Jays like Smoak primarily because of his glove, but it's really the breakout potential suggested by his advanced batted ball stats.
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Ju1cedd, please add Baubau... also the forum has been over-run by trolls and spam... posting has become pretty pointless.
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I'm going to pump out a 600-800 article on Kevin Pillar for tomorrow. I'm also still going to write the Aaron Sanchez reliever article (zone% by count, comparing starting/relieving), I've just been busy the last two nights (was at the games!). Would be great if you could pump out a 600 word piece on Estrada, John_Havok. GD got over 100 views on his Martin article yesterday and it was barely promoted (standard board and twitter). The Blue Jays hype is real and 600 word articles are fine. Is Baubau signed up yet?
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Nice! Looking forward to it, Nick.
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Apparently Hurl has resigned as mod? Something should probably be done about moderation on the forums. Regulars are getting very frustrated. There are many more clicks out there to grab right now, because of the run the Jays are on. I'm writing an article about Aaron Sanchez's approach as a reliever, and would like to start writing about attendance patterns too. GD said he was going to write something for this week. If Baubau gets set up, he already has an article that can release tomorrow. BTS, you've outlined many times on the forum how Mark Buehrle is able to out-perform his peripherals (fielding his position, running game suppression). Could you possible just put those thoughts into a 600 word article? Having small articles like that to throw into the mix would go a long way.
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Alright, I published this on the predictive quality of xSeries, using July: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/08/09/using-july-stats-to-discern-predictive-quality-of-our-batted-ball-and-plate-discipline-models/ Will get something up on the Blue Jays soon as well.
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I'll have something up on Monday. Probably relating to the Jays current situation.
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+ $1MM right now since they'd have been taxed 100% on the overage. Dodgers are acquiring two C-level prospects for $1MM. Makes sense for both sides imo.
