First off, value of a win is more like $8m. Second, he's projected for 1 WAR over an entire season. His BABIP was much higher than his career average this year. I don't see why Steamer projects his base running so poorly, but I'd probably set it at 1.5 personally, so (1.5*8)-7=$5m surplus value, or $3.5m with your figure. That's assuming he plays, like, 145 games.