Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: To Swing or Not To Swing

On May 10, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted in a Bluesky post that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has chased less in each of the past three seasons. I updated the data to May 18, and the 2025 trend continues. Let's take a closer look.

Table 1 shows that since 2023, Guerrero Jr.'s Chase% has steadily decreased from the previous season each year. In 2022, his 30.5% Chase% exceeded his 2023 28.8% mark, which was higher than 2024's 27.5% Chase% and this season's 21.8%. For context, consider Guerrero Jr.'s Chase% percentile rankings (the lowest Chase% would be the 100th percentile) for the 2022-2025 period. His Chase% percentile ranking has increased consistently from 43rd in 2022 to 85th this season.

Notably, Guerrero Jr.'s In-Zone Swing% has consistently declined since 2023. Regarding percentile rankings, his In-Zone Swing% has fallen from 90th to 20th. Unsurprisingly, Guerrero Jr.'s overall Swing% has also declined. His combined swing rate (Swing%) percentile ranking has dropped from 73rd in 2023 to 10th this campaign. Is Guerrero Jr. a more patient/passive batter in all situations than he was a few years ago? Let's turn to Table 2 and Table 3.

For context, I present Table 2. As of May 18, Guerrero Jr. has 200 plate appearances. Concerning men on base ("MOB") and runners in scoring position (RISP) situations, he has fewer than 91 plate appearances. Hence, a small sample size warning. Nonetheless, some patterns in various situations have developed since 2022.

Also, regarding Table 3, I highlighted numbers that exceeded the MLB average by three or more percentage points and situations where the MLB average surpassed Guerrero Jr.'s number by at least three percentage points. The three-percentage-point cutoff aligns with the approximately three percentage point difference between the 75th percentile Chase% and the median for the 2022-2024 period.

Observation time!

Chase%

• Concerning Chase%, Guerrero Jr. has chased at a lower rate with no men on base than the MLB average since 2023. This season, his 16.9 Chase% is considerably lower than the average.
• However, with men on base, Guerrero Jr. has been close to the average starting in 2022.
• Regarding RISP situations, his Chase Swing% consistently surpasses the MLB average. Notably, 2025 and 2023 are considerably higher than the average.
• Before 2025, with fewer than two strikes, Guerrero Jr.'s Chase Swing% exceeded each season's average.
• However, in 2025, his Chase% is almost five percentage points lower. This low Chase% is consistent with hitting coach David Popkins' batting approach, which I outlined in an earlier article.
• Guerrero Jr. has chased at a much lower rate with two strikes compared to the MLB average this and last season.

In-Zone Swing%

• Suppose a passive hitter swings at in-zone pitches at a rate lower than the MLB average. Hence, an aggressive batter swings at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate. Therefore, one description of 2025 Guerrero Jr. is that he is a passive batter in non-two-strike scenarios. Before 2024, he was an aggressive batter in all in-zone scenarios.

In summary, 2025 Guerrero Jr. is chasing at a relatively low rate, whether in counts with fewer than two strikes or with two strikes. However, his Chase% continues to exceed the MLB average in RISP situations. Concerning In-Zone Swing%, the 2025 version of Guerrero Jr. is a passive batter. This latter observation is consistent with his Heart Zone Swing% with fewer than two strikes. In 2024, Guerrero Jr. swung at 52% of the Heart Zone pitches with fewer than two strikes. This season, his Swing% on these pitches is 38%. The 2025 number is a small sample (42 swings). However, Guerrero Jr. would have had to have swung at those pitches 57 times to achieve 2024's 52% mark, which is a lot more. Therefore, 2025 Guerrero Jr. is passive in counts with fewer than two strikes. 

From the Popkins' hitting philosophy perspective (slug in slug counts), we should expect lower chase rates. On this front, Guerrero Jr. is executing the noted philosophy thus far in 2025. However, concerning In-Zone Swing%, his rate in non-two-strike situations is below the MLB average. Furthermore, as of May 8, Guerrero Jr.'s Heart Zone Swing% was below the MLB median (I have not updated the data after my May 11 article). Hence, concerning In-Zone and Heart Zone Swing% data, Guerrero Jr. is not executing Popkins' philosophy.

Let's move from Swing% to Contact%.

Contact%

Table 4 shows Contact% numbers in various situations. Concerning out-of-zone pitches, except for 2025 RISP situations, Guerrero Jr.'s Contact% was markedly higher than the MLB average in 2024 and has continued to be thus far in 2025. On in-zone pitches, his 2025 contact rates are close to the MLB average. 

An interesting 2025 development is Guerrero Jr.'s elevated K% from 2024's 13.8% mark. In 2025, his K% is 17.2% (the MLB average is 22.0%). Guerrero Jr.'s increased strikeout rate (2025 compared to 2024) is due to lower chase contact and in-zone contact rates with two strikes. Furthermore, as a percentage of all strikeouts, his called strikeout rate is higher (26% in 2025 compared to 21% last season). Notably, his 14.8% walk rate in 2025 is higher than 2024's 10.3% (the 2025 MLB average is 8.7%).

The Last Word
Guerrero Jr.'s 85th percentile ranking in Chase% shows that he chases at a very low rate. However, his In-Zone Swing% is 20th percentile (the highest Swing% is the 100th percentile). Given the low Chase% and In-Zone Swing%, one description of Guerrero Jr. is that he is a passive hitter, whether the pitch is in or out of the strike zone. Another explanation is that he is a disciplined batter on pitches out of the zone and passive regarding in-zone pitches. Furthermore, his relatively low Heart Zone Swing% with fewer than two strikes indicates passivity and not implementing an element of Popkins' hitting philosophy. We will have the rest of the 2025 season to determine the valid description.