Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Is Still an Offensive Weapon, But Not in the Way He Used To Be

All statistics from before first pitch on May 5.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a productive offensive weapon for the Toronto Blue Jays, but his power numbers are near the worst of his eight-year career. This season, Guerrero is slashing .333/.421/.437 with 21 runs and 15 knocked in, but only two home runs. That number of home runs is fewer than Brandon Valenzuela's three, and he's a defense-first catcher who started the season in Triple-A.

Vladdy is the face of the Blue Jays franchise and the team's $500 million man, even though he has never matched the 48 home runs he hit in 2021, ranging from 23 to 32 each season following. One of the main reasons for the power decrease since his breakout is that the righty batter has exceeded that season's 9.4-degree average launch angle only once. That one season was 2023, when Guerrero hit 26 home runs with a 10.5-degree average angle. Since then, he hasn't exceeded 8.2 degrees, which is his current mark. His fly ball rate is also the lowest it's been in several years.

What's even more concerning is that Vladdy is posting some of his worst quality-of-contact numbers since his 2019 rookie season. His hard-hit rate (43.8 percent), barrel percentage (10.7 percent), and average exit velocity (91.2 mph) are his lowest since 2019 or 2020, his first two MLB seasons. These decreases, combined with his failure to elevate the ball, have led to Guerrero's struggles to hit home runs. 

While taking a deep dive into his statistics, it's important to remember that although his declines in some areas are concerning, the season is only a few weeks old, so the sample is small.

Where the Blue Jays first baseman is thriving is in the contact department, with a career-best 12.1% strikeout rate. His expected batting average of .316 ranks in the 97th percentile and would tie his career high set in 2024. This metric is backed by his high line-drive rate and noticeable up-the-middle approach. 

The Blue Jays' highest-paid player has been more content driving the ball to center than pulling it, with a straightaway rate nearly 10 percentage points higher than his pull rate. With this strategy, it's harder to hit a home run, but it shows that his timing is near perfect. It seems his mentality at the plate is to be a top-of-the-order hitter trying to get on base, instead of a three or four-hole hitter who will use power to drive in runs. 

Though the mindset and mentality might be concerning, none of it means that Vladdy isn't an exceptional player. What's frustrating is that he is only 27 and has the natural talent to produce more power. The fix could be as simple as a slight mechanical change in his swing to pull the ball more often and generate more fly balls. 

If not, the Blue Jays will need to move forward with a plan to add power around Guerrero, as the current roster ranks 22nd in MLB in home runs. Kazuma Okamoto is carrying the load, with nine of the team's 33 home runs, but hopefully, answers are on their way. 

Addison Barger has begun a rehab stint in Single A, where he homered in his first game. The slugger struggled mightily to start the season, posting a .279 OPS and -16 wRC+ before he hit the injured list. The Blue Jays desperately need Barger to overcome his struggles and bring power to a roster that has no one besides Okamoto with more than four home runs this season. 

For Blue Jays fans, it may be time to change your expectations for the $500 million man. He might no longer be the slugger you once knew. Now, he looks like the "get on-base guy" that he used to drive in. He's still to be appreciated and cheered for, as he's the team's offensive leader and will be for many years to come.