The Blue Jays Face A Daunting Second-Half Strength of Schedule To Stay Atop The AL East

Even though the Blue Jays find themselves with a 55-41 record and leading the AL East halfway through the season, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays are all at most 5 1/2 games behind. The first-place standing is somewhat misleading because the Blue Jays had the 12th-easiest schedule in the first half of the season, but only had a +17 run differential, which is tied for the second-lowest among teams with winning records.

It's a different picture looking at the second half's strength of schedule. Staying atop the division will be a challenge since the Blue Jays have the fifth-strongest remaining schedule. Division foes, the Red Sox (sixth-strongest), the Yankees (12th-easiest), and the Rays (10th-easiest), all could pose serious threats to overtaking the Blue Jays and claiming the AL East crown.

Even Power Rankings Guru has the AL East title race coming down to the wire. Their current prediction for win total is Yankees at 90.2, Blue Jays at 87.6, Red Sox at 86.2, and the Rays at 84.7. The Blue Jays have 66 games remaining, which are split evenly between home and away games.

The team began the second half at home against the San Francisco Giants in a three-game series, followed by a division rival, the New York Yankees. After sweeping the Yankees in a four-game series the first week in July, the Yankees return to the Rogers Centre July 21-23. This three-game series is crucial for the Blue Jays to extend their lead over the other teams in the division race.

Excluding the division teams, the Blue Jays also face a challenge playing against four current division leaders: the Detroit Tigers (four games), as well as three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs, and the Houston Astros, each. The Dodgers and Cubs will be a difficult stretch because the Blue Jays play them back-to-back with a travel day after Sunday's game.

September will provide ample opportunities to gain ground in the divisional race. The key divisional series in September will be a three-game series from the 5th to the 7th against the Yankees, a four-game series from the 15th to the 18th against the Rays, and a crucial final stretch with six games being at home against the Red Sox and Rays. 

Even with the daunting schedule ahead, Power Ranking Guru gives the Blue Jays a 75.2 percent chance of making the playoffs as of this writing. This is extremely impressive, considering they received only a 29.5 percent to start the season. The 75.2 percent chance of making a postseason appearance is behind the Yankees (89.5), but ahead of the Red Sox (63.1) and the Rays (47.1). Their graph projects the Blue Jays to be the top Wild Card seed and would host the Seattle Mariners in a one-game series.

Regardless of the outcome, after starting the season 14-16 and all the chaos surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract, fans may have felt discouraged about the season. However, the team took care of business against weaker teams, setting themselves up nicely for the second half. It'll be an exciting next couple of months to watch how the AL East title run plays out.