Outscored, but Not Outplayed

The Toronto Blue Jays are a really good baseball team. There shouldn't be much debate about it either, following two straight series sweeps (including a four-game sweep against the New York Yankees) and four series victories in a row, the Blue Jays sit in first place in the AL East. They became the first team in the division to hit the 50-win mark, and they trail only the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers for the best record in the American League.

There is a small subset of people out there (looking at you, Michael Kay) who don't believe the Blue Jays are for real, with the main argument being that their run differential has been quite poor throughout the season. Jamie Campbell threw some shade towards Kay and the Yankees after the Blue Jays swept them on Thursday, saying,  "a certain Yankee broadcaster" is going to have to "go on his show tomorrow and admit that the Blue Jays are a first-place team because the standings prove it."

Now, at the end of the day, run differential doesn't really matter. They don't hand out a trophy at the end of the season for the team that outscored their opponents the most, nor do they award playoff spots that way either. All that matters is whether you score more than your opponent each day, and the Blue Jays have done that more often than not this season.

That said, run differential is usually a better predictor than current win-loss record of how a team is going to perform going forward. Blue Jays fans should know this well. Back in 2015, the Blue Jays were a game below .500 at the All-Star break despite their +84 run differential. Two weeks later, they added Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, and others, and they soared to a 48-23 record in the second half and marched right on to the ALCS. Alex Anthopoulos, Toronto's general manager at the time, cited the team's extreme run differential as a reason to push the chips in at the deadline, and it's safe to say it worked out.

Now, getting back to the 2025 team, the run differential conversation has felt like throwing a wet blanket on a season that has been incredibly fun so far. With any luck, maybe the Blue Jays continue on their current tear and we soon forget all about this. Still, it's worth taking a look to see what history says about a team's success with such a “poor” run differential halfway through the season.

At the end of June, the Blue Jays' run differential was -3. So, with that number in mind, we can take a look at how many clubs have gone on to make the playoffs after finishing June with a negative run differential since the league implemented a 10-team playoff structure in 2012:

• 2024: Tigers (-22)
• 2023: Marlins (-12), Brewers* (-22), Phillies (-8)
• 2022: None
• 2021: Cardinals (-42), Yankees (-3)
• 2020: N/A (COVID season)
• 2019: Brewers (-4), Cardinals* (-1)
• 2018: Rockies (-44)
• 2017: Twins (-55)
• 2016: None
• 2015: Mets* (-12)
• 2014: Pirates (-9)
• 2013: Dodgers* (-46)
• 2012: Orioles (-22), Tigers* (-9), Athletics*, (-4)

*Team ended up winning the division

It's quite an interesting list. In 11 of the past 13 seasons, there has been at least one team with a negative run differential at the end of June that made the postseason. In some cases, those teams had even more success. The 2015 Mets team, led by Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey, went all the way to the World Series. In addition, the 2012 Tigers team, led by Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Miguel Cabrera, also made it to the World Series.

Turning back to 2025, it's possible that the Guardians, Twins, or Royals find their way into the playoffs, but there is a good chance that the Blue Jays may be the only team with a negative run differential coming into July to make the postseason.

Making the postseason isn’t the only goal for this Blue Jays team; they’re going to want to win the division, and knowing that the Blue Jays have gone 0-6 in the Wild Card round since 2016, getting a first-round bye would be even more important for this team. So, that should be the goal, and the Jays are certainly making progress. As of this weekend, the Blue Jays overtook the Yankees as the favourites to win the division, according to FanGraphs' playoff odds:

Graph updated following games on July 6.

Run differential says something about a team, but it doesn't say everything. It doesn't tell you how clutch a team has been. It doesn't tell you that the Blue Jays are 16-10 in one-run games so far, or how they have been so good at moving runners over and getting them in when they need to late in games. All these things are key for helping teams, like the Blue Jays, win more games than expected.

This might even be the last time this season we're thinking about this. In July so far, the Blue Jays have a +15 run differential, and if they keep winning ballgames at their current pace, this stat won't matter much anymore – no matter what Michael Kay and other Yankee media members say.