Are the Blue Jays the Most Well-Rounded Team for the AL Postseason Race?

The Wild Card Series will begin September 30, but there's still much to fight for. The Blue Jays and Astros have slim leads in their divisions, while the Tigers seem to have secured the AL Central. The race for the top two seeds, which come with first-round byes, remains close.

For most of the season, the Blue Jays have looked like a strong team and a serious World Series contender. August was a setback; they had the 11th-best record in MLB in the month (15-12), but their bullpen took a massive step backward. Tommy Nance was the lone bright spot in the bullpen, with a 0.59 ERA and a 17:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the month. The 34-year-old was the only reliever who threw at least four innings with under a 4.00 ERA in August.

Despite the bullpen's struggles, the starting rotation has continued to thrive. Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt all posted sub-4.00 ERAs in August.

Bieber, returning from Tommy John surgery, has posted a 4.15 ERA across three games, skewed by a rough outing against the Reds last week. He had a 2.38 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his first two starts.

Scherzer produced his best month of the season in August, posting a 3.34 ERA, although he gave up four earned runs to each of the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers in his last two outings of the month. The 41-year-old had a respectable 23:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the outings, though.

Gausman has been up and down all season, but he has had back-to-back successful months with ERAs of 2.51 and 3.55 in July and August, respectively. The ace of the rotation is looking in good form after posting a 35:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio last month.

Bassitt struggled after a strong April (2.86 ERA), but improved in August to 3.67 ERA. However, he developed control issues, allowing 14 walks and at least two in every outing, which has continued in September.

José Berríos, once a standout, has posted 5.83 and 4.64 ERAs over the past two months, with 10 home runs allowed. Only once did he exceed 90 pitches in 10 outings. He and Bassitt are likely to compete for the fourth ALDS rotation spot, with the loser headed to the bullpen or off the roster.

Despite uneven pitching, the offense is still shining. Since August 1, the Blue Jays rank first in batting average and OBP, second in OPS, and fourth in runs and RBI. Davis Schneider surprised in August, hitting .327/.377/.673 with five home runs and 16 RBIs as a utility player filling in due to injuries. 

The Blue Jays have a potent offense and rotation, and if their bullpen regains its mid-season form, this team will be well-rounded and ready to contend for the World Series. To assess their chances, let's examine the contenders they may face as they aim to represent the American League.

New York Yankees
The Yankees trail by two games in the AL East but lead the Wild Card race. Like the Blue Jays, they thrive on offense and starting pitching, though their bullpen has struggled less. In August, Cam Schlittler (1.60 ERA), Will Warren (2.84), Carlos Rodón (3.15), and Luis Gil (3.68) excelled. Max Fried struggled in July and August, but posted much better ERAs in earlier months, and he's looked much better in his last few starts.

The Yankees have been slightly better than the Blue Jays in both offensive and bullpen production, ranking among the top three clubs in most key offensive statistics. With Aaron Judge coming back from injury and five relievers posting ERAs under 4.00 last month, these two teams look very closely matched overall.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are third in the AL East, sitting 3.5 games behind the Blue Jays and holding the second Wild Card position with a three-game lead for the final spot. They differ from their division rivals ahead of them because they have a mediocre offense, but a stellar bullpen. Aroldis Chapman leads the 'pen, having not allowed a run to score in his last 17 outings; he has only allowed six earned runs in 60 outings all season. He's also converted 29 saves in 31 opportunities. Opposing teams don't want to be trailing in the ninth inning, because you know who is coming out of the bullpen, and he's been unhittable all year. Chapman has held opposing hitters to a .112 batting average.

Boston also has some talented starting pitchers to ease pressure on their middling offense. Starters Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito posted sub-3.20 ERAs in August, as did seven relievers with at least five innings each. However, only Roman Anthony and Trevor Story have provided consistent offensive production lately. They combined for 11 home runs in August, while the rest of the team combined for 18.

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have taken advantage of the AL Central's struggles this season, boasting a 29-17 record in the division. Their offense, like the Red Sox's, ranks closer to the middle of the pack in most key offensive categories, both lately and on the season.

Collectively, their starting pitchers have performed well on the season, but in August, Tarik Skubal (2.52 ERA) was their only starter to finish the month with an ERA under 4.00. The bullpen, meanwhile, is now reeling from the loss of Kyle Finnegan. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Washington Nationals, he was outstanding in August, not allowing a run in 12 outings for the Tigers.

So, despite having the best record in the American League, the Tigers don't look like a scary team, and they won't unless their pitching staff as a whole takes a massive step forward in September.

Houston Astros
The Astros started the season off hot through June, with a 50-34 record, but they cooled off in July (12-13) and August (13-15). On offense, Christian Walker experienced a power surge in August, hitting eight of his 22 home runs, scoring 16 times, and knocking in 19. Aside from Walker, however, the Astros' offense struggled in August, ranking 29 in runs and RBI. The team was glad to welcome back three-time All-Star Yordan Alvarez from a hand fracture that had kept him out of the lineup since May 2.

Houston's pitching staff ranked 19th in ERA in August (4.36), despite their ace, Hunter Brown, posting a 1.67 ERA in 37 2/3 innings and fellow starter Jason Alexander having his best month of production by far (2.17). The bullpen was carried by Bryan Abreu, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert following Josh Hader's injury. Each of Abreu, Ort, and Okert threw 12 or more innings in August with an ERA of 2.30 or better. The Astros might not currently look like a team to be feared, but they have extensive postseason experience and have consistently found ways to succeed in October.

Among the American League contenders, the Blue Jays and Yankees appear to be the most well-rounded teams, though the Tigers are also favourites due to their favourable position in the standings. However, earning the number one seed might not be ideal, as the current postseason picture indicates that the top seed would likely face the Yankees in the ALDS, and then possibly the number two seed in the ALCS. This could mean two particularly tough series — though in October, anything can happen.