Make or Break Players on the 2025 Blue Jays: Orelvis Martínez

We’re not all that far removed from the Toronto Blue Jays’ young core being the envy of the league, with what appeared to be a stacked farm system with waves of talent set to make winning sustainable in Toronto for a long time. The Jays broke the 90-win plateau in 2021 and 2022 and won 89 games en route to a playoff berth in 2023. But in 2024, disaster struck, as the Jays found themselves well out of the playoff race and stumbling to just 74 wins. 

We can point to several decisions regarding baseball operations and on-field moments to explain why the Jays have ended up in this less-than-ideal position. Still, the most glaring is that the concept of waves of talent never comes to fruition. Instead of the elite young core being supplemented by a combination of free agent signings and prospect graduations, the Jays have (with a few exceptions) only been able to add to their big league roster through free agency or trades. This led to the Jays being forced to bring in and rely on guys like Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Daniel Vogelbach, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, all of whom were asked to play bigger roles than they should have been playing on a winning team.  

We all know how that turned out, so in 2025, the Jays will need some homegrown talent to punch above their weight class. One player who could finally put to rest the ‘Blue Jays can’t develop players’ allegations is Orelvis Martinez.

What Went Wrong in 2024?
Well, this is a pretty easy one…

Orelvis Martínez was rocking an .869 OPS with 17 homers at Triple-A Buffalo when he earned the call to the big leagues as the corresponding move to a Bo Bichette IL stint in late June.  He had just enough time to make his first-ever big league appearance, going 1-3 with a single, before he was popped for PEDs and handed an 80-game suspension, ending his season.

Between the injury to Bichette and the ensuing firesale of veterans, Martínez’s suspension meant he had squandered an opportunity to carve out everyday at-bats in the big leagues. I’m sure the Jays were just as disappointed that they didn’t get a chance to see what Martínez could do against big-league pitching in a low-stress environment. What could have been a breakout second half for Martínez, or at least one filled with valuable lessons about the difference between the major and minor leagues, instead turned into a valuable lesson about reading the ingredients on his prescriptions.  

What Can Go Right in 2025?
Martínez has been a fun prospect to follow for half a decade at this point, as he’s routinely found himself near the top of the home run leaderboards and has been able to do so without seeing his strikeout and walk rates completely crater as he’s progressed from level to level.  

If only slightly, across 319 Triple-A plate appearances in 2024, Martínez improved on the numbers from his first 244 in 2023. It’s noteworthy that Martínez dropped his Triple-A strikeout rate from 27% in 2023 to below 24% in 2024 while getting on base and hitting for power at better rates. This is a step in development that every team prays to see their power-hitting prospects get to. While Martínez did so marginally and in a small sample size, he did so at the highest level of the minors and four years younger than the average age. The Blue Jays were impressed enough to want to see what he could do in the big leagues in what was a slightly aggressive promotion at the time.

The difference between the highest level of the minor leagues and the big leagues is said to be the largest jump in quality of competition in a professional baseball player’s career, so no one is expecting Orelvis to come up to the big leagues at 23 years old and plug his .869 OPS and 30 homers into the lineup, but his ability to hit for power is tantalizing. If Martínez can continue to display an improved ability to put the ball in play and make better swing decisions in spring training, his power will make him an attractive option to break camp with the Blue Jays.  He'll be in the lineup daily if he continues to display these skills against big-league pitching.  

How Will This Impact the Blue Jays?
Through what looks to be a strong offseason with the additions of Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, Max Scherzer, Jeff Hoffman, and Yimi García, the Jays have put themselves in a better position heading into 2025 than they did a year ago.  However, as is the case with any 74-win team trying to retool through free agency, there are a few holes on the roster that will need to be filled by internal options.  Number one on the list is third base.  

ZiPS projects that Ernie Clement will get the bulk of the work at third base, but his versatility across three infield positions suits him very well for a utility role. Clement will play an important role for the 2025 Blue Jays, but he certainly doesn’t have a strong enough claim of third base that we can pencil him into the opening-day lineup. The Jays would be thrilled if Orelvis Martínez could hit enough to force Clement into a bench role like the one he thrived in last season. Clement hit .385 in 13 pinch-hitting at-bats in 2024, and his ability to put the bat on the ball plays extremely well off the bench late in games.  

Marínez could also factor in at second base, although you may have to squint a bit to see it as the newly acquired platinum glover Andrés Giménez has a claim to the position.  Giménez and Martínez hit from opposite sides of the plate, so we could see Martínez get a chance to platoon a bit and get starts at second base against left-handed pitchers.

Most importantly, Orelvis Martínez’s profile offers a fix to the most glaring hole on the Blue Jays’ roster: power. Given the opportunity, it wouldn’t be silly to suggest that Martínez can hit more home runs over a season than Clement and Giménez combined. With just two players on the roster who broke the 20-home-run mark in 2024, the Blue Jays would be foolish not to give him an opportunity he can’t.  

Marínez will play the entire 2025 season at just 23 years of age, so this is far from a make-or-break season for him regarding his ability to be a productive big leaguer. Still, with the Blue Jays’ questions about the positions he plays, he will have an opportunity to break and impact winning for a team desperate for contributions from homegrown players.