Louis Varland Has Ditched his Sinker, & What That Means About The Blue Jays Pitching Plans

When Louis Varland arrived in Toronto, the Blue Jays were excited about the pitcher they were getting. Varland had a four-pitch mix, a fastball that averages 98.1 mph, a knuckle-curve that has a stunning 39.4 whiff%, and a sinker and slider to round out the repertoire. All in all, it's a 1.93 ERA, with a FIP and xFIP below three, getting ground balls and over a 50% rate, and before Marcus Semien took a front door slider that got just a little too much of the plate for a long ball on Friday, had allowed just three home runs on the season You can see why the Blue Jays were okay letting go of two high-end prospects in their system to get Varland, especially as he’s still 27 years old and isn't a free agent until 2031.

But the Blue Jays had more in mind when they acquired the flamethrowing right-hander. Under the eyes of Pete Walker and the rest of the coaches, Varland has immediately cut his sinker usage since joining the Blue Jays. 

Here is his pitch mix in 2025 with the Twins:

4-Seam Fastball: 44.9%
Knuckle Curve: 36.8%
Sinker: 7.4%
Slider: 6.3%
Change Up: 4.7%

And here is the mix since he got to Toronto:

4-Seam Fastball: 43.8%
Knuckle Curve: 46.7%
Sinker: 1.0%
Slider: 7.6%
Change Up: 1.0 %

This translates to Varland throwing exactly one sinker and one changeup since joining the Blue Jays at the start of the month.

It's noteworthy that Varland's sinker has been a good pitch. Batters are hitting .154 with a .385 OPS against the pitch, which, by those numbers alone, has been effective at getting results. Baseball Savant has the pitch at a +3 Run Value, meaning it's been a net positive pitch for him this season.

So why would the Blue Jays want to get rid of what you has been an effective offering for him? Well, let's start here:



As noted earlier, most of Varland's decreased sinker usage has come as an increase in the knuckle curve, and by the same run value stat, it's been his best pitch. A swinging strike rate of 20.2% on the season, a 66.7% GB rate, and batters are hitting .161 with a .414 OPS against the pitch, it makes sense why the Blue Jays would want him to use his best pitch more often, especially if he’s pitching in shorter outings in high relief. It adds on to a trend that has been happening league-wide as well. Per FanGraphs, here is the league's runs above average vs the sinker of the past five seasons, compared to the knuckle curveball over the same period:



League-wide, the sinker has been allowing more runs than any other individual pitch in baseball, and the knuckle curve has been a net positive for pitches as a whole on the season, so that it could be as simple as this. If a pitch is more likely to be hit, just don't throw it as much.

The Blue Jays not only do this with Varland, but they’ve done it with other pitchers they’ve acquired. Seranthony Dominguez, who was acquired just a few days before Varland, has also seen his pitch mix change quite a bit. In August, here’s where his usage rates stand vs what they were earlier with the Orioles:

4-Seam: 35.1% vs 43.6%
Sweeper: 27.0 % vs 19.3 %
Sinker: 18.9 % vs 12.6 %
Splitter: 17.6% vs 18.0%
Curveball: 1.4% vs 6.6 %

Just like Varland, the Blue Jays have dramatically increased Dominguez sweeper usage as well.

Take Tommy Nance, who Bryan Jaeger noted recently that Nance’s best pitch may be his curveball, but the Jays have him throwing his slider more often.

Even Jeff Hoffman, who was acquired in free agency, has seen his pitch usage change since joining the Blue Jays. He has been a little different, though; instead of dropping the fastball and throwing the slider more, he’s increased his fastball usage and has heavily favoured the splitter. As you can see here:



There doesn't seem to be a one-size-fits-all approach for making changes with the pitchers that they acquire, but the Blue Jays' scouts, front office, and coaches usually see something that they can use to make their players even better, and they have a plan in place to make that happen.

Where things become interesting is what the Blue Jays do with Shane Bieber? Historically, Bieber has been a five-pitch pitcher: four-seam fastball, slider, change-up, knuckle curve, and cutter. And it will be interesting to see what the Blue Jays will do (if anything) with his pitch mix.

If you look into the three minor league rehab starts he’s made since being in the Blue Jays system, he’s thrown:
79 four-seam fastballs (34.3% vs 35% in 2023*)
70 sliders (30.4% vs 21%)
45 cutters (19.6% vs 27%)
21 knuckle curves (9.1% vs 14%)
15 Changeups (6.5% vs 3%)
*2023 was Bieber's last full big league season

We won't get a full read on what the pitch mix will be until he makes his debut for the Blue Jays later this week. Still, if the minor league rehab assignment means anything, it seems like more sliders are in the cards for Shane Bieber, mimicking what the Blue Jays have done with Dominguez and Varland since their acquisitions.

The battle between hitting and pitching is always fluid. It is constantly changing, and at the end of the day, keeping runners off base and preventing your opponents from scoring runs is always going to be important. The Blue Jays coaches and front office members have a plan in place for how they are doing that, and changing the pitchers' pitch mixes seems to be one of the steps that the Blue Jays are hoping will lead this team deep into the postseason.