How Do You Solve a Problem Like Berríos?

When the Blue Jays made the first big splash of the offseason by signing Dylan Cease, it was understandably the talk of the town. One curious thing I noted in the early discussions was the framing of the potential Toronto rotation. The most egregious (in my opinion) came from a TSN Instagram post. The post, straightforwardly titled “Potential Blue Jays Rotation in 2026,” showed Cease, centred in the foreground, flanked by Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage. Behind them, representing the potential fourth and fifth starters were Shane Bieber and… Eric Lauer? No disrespect to Lauer, who was one of the (relatively) unsung heroes of the 2025 team and arguably, at times, the most important member of the rotation, but that’s Berríos’ spot. We were all caught a little off guard by the Cease signing, so I don’t want to put *too much* weight on a social media post from the network that doesn’t have the rights to the Jays — but it was something I noticed.

Then it was Cody Ponce coming to Toronto on a three-year deal. Owen Hill laid out some of the possible ramifications for Berríos, and it comes down to how Toronto intends to use Ponce. Is he the fifth starter, or does he slide into a Lauer-type role? Those are questions you could fairly ask about Berríos, too,

Then it was a Mitch Bannon report that the Jays “will listen to trade offers” for Berríos. Let’s not forget, Berríos wasn’t just one of the 38 different players to throw a pitch for Toronto last season. He’s been the Opening Day starter in three of the four seasons he’s been here since the Jays acquired him from Minnesota in 2021. 

Given the time of year, I’ve been watching a lot of holiday-themed programming. I was all prepared to use the Island of Misfit Toys as a comparable – “What good is a Machine that’s lost its calibration?” – but I’m not sure that Berríos is as broken as that premise would lead us to. Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Berríos wasn’t great last season. His ERA (4.17) was the worst it’s been in three seasons, he threw his fewest innings (pandemic-shortened season aside) since 2017, and despite the drop in innings, he still walked more batters (56) than in any season since 2018. A quick look at his peripheral stats isn’t much better. His Statcast percentile ranks graphic is bluer than an Elvis Presley Christmas (there’s the seasonal analogy I needed!). His average fastball velocity was the lowest it’s been since he came to Toronto, while his average exit velocity and barrel rate were both at their highest. So where is the bright side?

Berríos’ season ended with a career-first appearance out of the bullpen, followed by another career-first: a trip to the injured list. Here’s where I’m going to throw in some speculation. I think he was pitching hurt most of the second half of last season and potentially longer. He was a little shaky out of the gates to start last season, but in May, he showed serious improvement, and in June, he was the best pitcher in the rotation. We recognized it at the time, and he was Jays Centre’s Pitcher of the Month in June and a runner-up in May. Looking at his splits, the numbers really spiked in July/August/September, culminating in that IL stint and a full absence through the playoffs. His arm angle was lower than in the previous two seasons, which could point to a player who was just gritting his way through the season, trying to maintain the IL–free streak he had through his career to that point. If that were the case, he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to ever try to mask an injury and ‘play through it.’ We’ll shelve the discussion of whether that’s heroic or stupid for another day. Considering that he had over 1,500 career innings pitched without ever hitting the IL, maybe pitching through pain has gotten him through previous seasons.

Ross Atkins told reporters that Berríos should “have a completely normal offseason and be ready for spring training.” I don’t want to completely hand-wave away his 2025 season, but if the results were influenced by injury and he’s healthy for next season, isn’t he a lock for at least the last rotation spot? John Schneider has shown himself to be loyal to “his guys,” and Berríos has a track record of durability if nothing else.

When the announcement was first made of his move to the ‘pen in September, Berríos said a lot of the right things about wanting to help the team and doing whatever it took to win – but he was less convincing than some of his teammates when similar moves occurred. He is undoubtedly a guy who wants to start. He’s also a guy with three years remaining on his contract. Now, if the trade rumours are anything more than ‘of course we’ll listen to a trade offer for a player, we’ll listen to an offer for anyone on the roster, that’s literally our job’ then would Toronto be selling low just to clear salary?

I think the most likely outcome is that Berríos goes into spring training as a Blue Jay and starts the season as the fifth man in the rotation. His days as the Opening Day starter are likely behind him now, but there’s nothing to definitively suggest that he can’t put up close to 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00, and if that’s your fifth guy, that’s not bad. Toronto was also more aggressive with its management of pitchers last year than in previous years, and if Berríos breaks camp in his expected spot, it might be with the shortest leash of his career.