Is The Blue Jays’ Defence Slipping Just When It Matters The Most?

As of September 10, according to the Fielding Run Value metric (“FRV”), the Toronto Blue Jays have MLB’s best defence with a +40 FRV. However, Toronto’s relative ranking slipped after June. By June 30, Toronto’s defence posted a 36 FRV in 748 innings, 17 FRV units better than the next best team (Atlanta). During the July 1 to September 10 period, Blue Jay defenders recorded a +3 FRV in 539 innings, which is MLB’s 15th-best. Boston and Texas have the best FRV marks after June (+22 FRV). So, why has Toronto’s defence deteriorated after June? Let us dive into the topic.

Table 1 is an FRV summary of the pre-July and post-June periods for Toronto and a selection of teams either chasing Toronto for the East Division title (Yankees and Red Sox) or teams recently leading the other American League divisions (Tigers and Astros). The bottom section of the table contains FRV data per 500 innings, which equalizes the time in the field, thereby making comparisons easier. The area of Toronto’s defence that has deteriorated the most is the infield. Before July, Toronto’s infielders generated the fourth-highest FRV (+8 FRV per 500 innings) among MLB teams. However, Blue Jay infielders have produced the second-worst infield defence (-10 FRV per 500 innings).

Among Toronto infielders, only Ty France and Andrés Giménez have produced positive FRV numbers after June. However, four players have performed poorly once the calendar turned to July: Addison Barger, Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The items to note are as follows:

• Unfortunately, Baseball Savant does not break down FRV range data (fielder comes in, moves to his right, etc.). Therefore, I used OAA for the analysis. A word of caution: Defensive metrics often fluctuate from one month to another. 
• Barger produced a -4 OAA in July and August (182 innings). When moving to his left, his pre-July OAA was +1; it was -2 after.
• Defensively, Bichette is a below-average shortstop. From 2021 to 2025, among shortstops with at least 2,700 innings, his -23 FRV ranks 31st of 32 shortstops. Concerning OAA, Bichette posted a -4 by the end of June. In July, he was awful. His -9 OAA was horrible. Concerning his movements to a batted ball, the August OAA details are as follows: in (-4), right (-1), and left (-5). That is balanced fielding!
• Let’s admit it. Bichette is too slow to play a competent shortstop. In 2021, his Sprint Speed ranked in the 75th percentile; in 2025, his ranking is in the 20th percentile. Bichette's 2025 Sprint Speed ranks 51st among shortstops; he ranked 26th in 2021. His 2025 30ft Running Split is in the 11th percentile; it was 46th in 2021. Bichette is neither fast nor quick.
• Clement has played very well in the field (+9 FRV for the season). However, he recorded eight of his nine FRV total by the end of May. As a third baseman, he posted a +4 OAA in 220 innings by the end of May, and a +2 OAA in 364 innings after. At second base, Clement recorded a +5 OAA in 139 innings before June, and zero in 183 innings after. Perhaps Clement is a little worn out. As of September 11, his 530 plate appearances exceed his next highest season total (452 in 2024) by 78 (17%). Clement has played more in 2025 than he has in any other MLB season.
• Clement's notable OAA changes in his detailed range metrics were moving to his right (+5 OAA less after June) and left (+4 OAA less after June).
• Guerrero Jr. was below-average in July, as evidenced by his -3 OAA. After July, his OAA is zero. For the season, Guerrero Jr.’s -3 OAA ranks 26th among 38 qualified first basemen. Concerning FRV, among first basemen with at least 500 innings, Guerrero Jr. slots in at 17 of 28. Notwithstanding the great throws and crowd-pleasing over-the-head catches of pop-ups, Guerrero is a slightly below-average defender, which he has been since June.
• Concerning noteworthy OAA range data, Guerrero Jr.'s OAA when moving to his right was +1 before July, and -2 after.

What does it all mean? Toronto’s infield defence cratered after June, due largely to Bichette and Clement. For the balance of the season, assuming Barger’s return to form, Bichette’s stay on the Injured List (however long it lasts), Clement’s above-average play at short (+1 OAA in September in 36 innings), Giménez’s superb defence (+7 FRV, tied for MLB’s second-highest score among second-basemen), Guerrero Jr.’s close to average defence, and the additions of France (first base) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (second or third base), Toronto’s infield defence should be better than it was in the July-August period.

Concerning the outfield defence, please take a look at Table 4. My takeaways from the data are as follows:

• To the extent that John Schneider can limit George Springer’s outfield time, the better. Springer has been below-average in the field this season. Springer’s reduced time in the outfield after June is the main reason Toronto’s outfield’s FRV per 500 increased from +3 to +6.
• Davis Schneider, Barger, and Nathan Lukes are either slightly above or below average.
• Among centerfielders with at least 400 innings in centerfield, on a per 500 innings basis, Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw have posted +7 FRV scores, tied for third best.

As shown in Table 2, despite an improved FRV/500 after June, Toronto’s outfield defence slipped from fifth best to sixth (per 500 innings), which was still particularly good. For the balance of the season, and assuming Springer’s outfield time is minimal, I expect Toronto’s outfield defence to be a team strength. Onto the catchers!

In 2025, Toronto’s catchers have excelled. As depicted in Table 2, Blue Jay catchers ranked first in FRV before July, and third after June. Want some details? Behold Table 5!

For the season, Alejandro Kirk has a FRV score of +19, second only to San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey (+27 FRV). Tyler Heineman slides into number eight with his +8 FRV. Kirk’s post-June Catcher Framing and Catcher Blocking scores (per 500 innings) are like his pre-July scores. Heineman’s Catcher Framing prowess declined after June, as evidenced by his pre-July +7 FRV slipping to +3 after June (all FRV numbers are per 500 innings). Both catchers underperformed in the Catcher Throwing Department after June. Let us dig into this area some more.

During recent Blue Jays’ broadcasts, commentators have noted that Kirk has not thrown out a baserunner in 20 or so steal attempts. Caught Stealing% (“CS%”) is a terrible statistic because even people who use CS% acknowledge the importance of the pitcher in a team’s attempt to limit an opponent’s running game. Thankfully, Baseball Savant developed the Catcher Throwing metric, which is “based on several inputs at the time the pitch crosses the plate, most notably: runner distance from second, runner speed, pitch location, pitcher/batter handedness, and awareness of pitchouts or delayed steals. It’s the Statcast translation of the long-time saying “you steal off the pitcher, not the catcher.”

Concerning pop time, both Kirk and Heineman are better than they were in 2024. Kirk's 2025 Pop Time is 1.94 seconds, better than 2024's 2.00. Heineman's 2025 1.91 Pop Time is a tick quicker than 2024's 1.92. So, why did Toronto catchers underperform (according to Catcher Throwing) after June compared to before July? Unfortunately, Baseball Savant’s Catcher Throwing data does not include monthly breakdowns. In the case of Heineman, the drop from +2 Catcher Throwing to zero could be due to small sample size noise. Concerning Kirk, in addition to the small sample size, the answer may lie within the table below.

An examination of the breakdown (right side of the image) reveals that 2025 Kirk has not benefited from teamwork (bounced throws, great tags, and missed slides) as he did in 2024. Perhaps Kirk’s Catcher Throwing before July benefited from teamwork, but not so much after. Notwithstanding Catcher Throwing, I expect Toronto’s elite defence from the catcher position to continue as the 2025 season unfolds.

The Last Word
For the 2025 season to date, the Blue Jays have a top-tier defence. However, the performance of Toronto’s defenders as a group slipped to middle-of-the-pack during the July 1- September 10 period. Although there were modest performance changes from the outfielder and catcher groups, the defensive weakness after June was the infield. The notable culprits are Bichette, who posted a -8 FRV/500 after June, worse than his pre-July -2 FRV/500, and Clement, who generated a -1 FRV/500 after June and a 7 FRV/500 before. Yet, I expect Toronto’s infield defence to regain its form, not to mention the outfield and catcher units maintaining their performance level, for the balance of the season.