How Does the Blue Jays’ Pitching and Defence Stack Up to That of Recent World Series Teams?

As the first game of the American League Division Series approaches, media members and others will comment on how the Toronto Blue Jays compare to other 2025 postseason teams, including the Yankees. Such analysis is interesting. However, it would be thought-provoking to examine how Toronto compares at the macro level with the teams that have recently played in the World Series.

This examination consists of two parts. In the first segment, How Does the Blue Jays’ Offence Stack Up to That of Recent World Series Teams?, I discussed how Toronto’s offence measures up with World Series teams for the 2014-2024 period. In the second part of the examination, I focus on the Blue Jays’ pitching and defence and assess how the club compares with the World Series participants from 2015 to 2024.

Please note that for this analysis, I excluded 2020 for the reason I outlined in my previous article: The abbreviated, 60-game schedule was not representative of a typical MLB season. In the analysis that follows, I also omitted 2014 because FanGraphs’ splits leaderboard did not include the relevant data from before the 2015 season. 

I organized the analysis as follows:

• Distribution of runs allowed
• Pitching (starters and relievers)
• Starting pitchers
• Relievers
• Defence

As I noted in the previous article, compared to the regular season, the following observations concerning the postseason are essential to keep in mind:

• Runs per game are lower.
• Home runs per game are similar.
• The share of runs via home runs is higher.

The relevant charts are below.

Table 1 shows the distribution of runs allowed. That is, the percentage of runs allowed that is the result of home runs, and the percentage attributable to balls in play, balks, and other non-home run plays. For simplicity’s sake, I will lump all runs not arising from home runs to be runs from balls in play (“BIP”).

Based on the conclusions from my previous article, compared to the 2025 regular season, the number of runs allowed per game will likely be lower, and the runs per home run and home run rate will remain materially the same during the 2025 postseason. Therefore, teams that had a higher share of runs allowed via home runs during the regular season will likely allow more runs in total compared to teams with a lower share of runs allowed attributable to home runs. Why? Because runs from BIP per game are likely to decline, which makes sense because postseason teams typically have good pitching staffs. Consequently, to score runs from BIP, teams need to string non-homer hits together, which is more difficult when facing good pitching.

Accordingly, given Toronto’s slightly elevated percentage of runs allowed attributable to home runs (46% versus the 42% average), the Blue Jays' pitching (starters and relievers) appears to lag the recent World Series teams. However, a deeper dive into Toronto’s starters and bullpen is required.

Table 2 shows how Toronto’s pitching (starters and relievers) measures up against recent World Series teams. The numbers are not kind to the Blue Jays. Toronto’s 2025 wOBA, ERA-, FIP-, and HR/9 rankings are near or in the bottom third of MLB teams. The average rankings in these metrics for the World Series ballclubs are near or in the top third in their respective seasons. Not good. Onto Table 3!

Oops, not good. Except for K%-BB%, Toronto’s starters rank in the bottom third of MLB teams. We need another table. Behold Table 4! Okay, better news.

I constructed Table 4 as follows:

• Concerning the World Series teams, I included the season stats of the three starters with the most innings pitched in the postseason.
• I assumed Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage will rack up the most starter innings for Toronto during the 2025 postseason.
• For all teams reflected in the table, I used a simple, unweighted average of the noted metrics.

I settled on three starters per team because, as noted in my article, The Blue Jays' Top Three Starters Need A Boost At The Trade Deadline: Here Are Options, for the 2014-2024 period, 83% of all postseason starts for World Series teams were attributable to three starters.

Table 4 shows that the listed metrics of the Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage trio align with the average of recent World Series teams. Undoubtedly, there are caveats concerning Bieber and Yesavage, given the small sample size in 2025. However, at least on paper, Toronto’s trio measures up favourably with the World Series ballclubs.

Concerning relievers, consider Table 5. Based on wOBA, FIP-, HR/9, and K-BB%, Toronto’s bullpen is in line with the average regular-season metrics of World Series teams. There are cautionary matters to note:

• The composition of a bullpen changes throughout the season. Many teams add to their relief corps ahead of the trade deadline. For example, Toronto added Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland before the 2025 trade deadline. 
• Teams often bolster postseason bullpens by moving pitchers from the starting rotation into the relief corps.
• Accordingly, the team metrics for the whole of the regular season may not accurately reflect the quality of the bullpen in the postseason for the noted World Series teams. 

A final word on pitching. As the chart below shows, relievers have increased their share of innings pitched during the postseason since 2015. In 2024, starters accounted for 48% of innings pitched, much less than the 61% of total innings hurled by starters during the 2015 postseason. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise if Toronto’s relievers pitch a greater share of innings in the 2025 postseason than their 42% share of regular-season innings suggests. Furthermore, fans of the Blue Jays should be encouraged that Toronto’s bullpen, which struggled in August with a 4.62 FIP and 4.55 xERA, rebounded with a 3.60 FIP and 4.02 xERA in September. 

The final element to examine is defence. Table 6 has the goods. Not much needs to be said other than Toronto’s defence compares favourably with World Series teams after 2017. Please note that Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run Value data starts with the 2018 regular season.

The Last Word
Toronto’s defence is elite, be it among 2025 MLB teams or recent World Series teams.

However, at first blush, Toronto’s pitching does not compare favourably with recent World Series teams. Toronto’s relatively higher percentage of runs allowed attributable to home runs is cause for some concern. Also, whereas the average World Series team (2015-2024) ranks in or near the top third of pitching staffs, Toronto’s is closer to the bottom third of 2025 pitching staffs.

However, an examination of likely starters reveals that the metrics of the Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage trio align with those of the average World Series team. Furthermore, the bullpen’s metrics are comparable to those of the average bullpen from recent World Series teams. In summary, Toronto’s pitching compares favourably with the average World Series team from the 2015-2024 period.