The Economy of Blue Jays Baseball

Wednesday night’s report that Dylan Cease had signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Blue Jays sent ripples across Major League Baseball. The signing will push the Jays’ 2026 payroll close to $270 million and may result in less flexibility for additional big signings.

MLB is big business. The league generated over $12 billion in revenue in 2024, with the average team valuation sitting at $2.6 billion.

In 2000, Rogers bought an 80% stake in the Blue Jays for $165 million in cash and stocks. They purchased the remaining stake from Interbrew in 2004. Today, the Jays are worth between $2.15 billion and $2.4 billion.

Consistent success over the years has played a role in that valuation, but so has a holistic approach to running the organization. Rogers owns everything from the stadium to the broadcasting rights and everything in between.

If you aren’t an accountant, it can be challenging to parse out exactly how much money the Jays are making for Rogers. The team’s net stadium revenue was $300 million in 2024. Its operating income was a loss of $34 million. Forbes suggests those numbers were a bit higher, at $384 million in revenue and a loss of $60 million. Keep in mind, the losses don’t take into account ticket sales, broadcast revenue, merchandise and overall brand awareness. Again, those numbers are from 2024, not last year.

With the Jays coming within a game of the World Series title this fall, their extended postseason run ensured additional revenue in their coffers.

For a sense of what an organization rakes in during the playoffs, consider that the collective agreement with the players’ association allocated the players $129.1 million of ticket revenue in 2024. And that's just the players' portion.

Heck, the World Series 50/50 winner took home $25 million!?

All that to say, it isn’t surprising that the Jays have been spending and presumably will continue spending this offseason.

Last season, the Mets had MLB’s largest payroll on Opening Day, in part because Shohei Ohtani and other Dodgers' players' contracts are heavily deferred. Last season, $68 million of Ohtani's $70 million salary was deferred. Cease, for what it's worth, also has deferrals in his deal that bring his average annual salary down from $30 million to $26 million. Anthony Santander, Toronto's biggest signing last winter, also has significant deferrals in his deal.

The Jays' Opening Day payroll ranked fifth amongst MLB teams at just under $240 million, nearly $20 million more than the next closest teams (Rangers and Astros). Being close to half a billion still left the Jays more than $40 million behind the team just ahead of them on the list. The Phillies, at fourth overall in spending, had an Opening Day payroll of $284 million.

At the end of the season, the Jays' payroll stayed steady in fifth spot, well over $100 million lower than the World Series champion Dodgers.

For comparison's sake, the Marlins, Athletics and Rays all had payrolls under $80 million. In fact, the Marlins’ payroll on Opening Day last season was $67 million.

The disparity between the Jays and the very top spenders is even more pronounced when you take into account MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), which financially penalizes teams that exceed a set threshold. Last season, the first threshold for penalties was $241 million. The Dodgers once again established a new record for a luxury tax payment at $168 million. That was on top of their payroll costs.

The Jays' CBT bill last season was only $10 million.

Exchange rates and taxes can put the Jays at a bit of a disadvantage. While most of their revenue is in Canadian dollars, their payroll is in US currency.

MLB’s revenue sharing is different than the CBT, as it distributes national revenue evenly to all teams.

One of the unknowns when it comes to the Jays' revenue is how much Rogers generates from the “broadcast deal” with itself. The Dodgers have a 25-year, $8.35 billion deal with Spectrum for local rights that pays out an average of $334 million per season through 2038.

Where does that leave the Jays when it comes to spending for the 2026 season? President Mark Shapiro has indicated that ownership has bought in (literally) on continuing to build. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s big extension early last season and now the signing of Cease demonstrate the validity of that sentiment.

The 2026 Jays still need pieces. They need relief pitching, and they need at least one infielder. That infielder is either Bo Bichette or someone else if they shift players around.

Those additions won’t come cheap, even if they come via trades. The talent pool in the system doesn’t sound like it is quite ready, so spending will play a role in how competitive a team the Jays field in 2026.

With the Cease contract, the Jays’ spending will be heavily invested in six players (Guerrero, Cease, Santander, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Shane Bieber). Signing a marquee player like Bichette or Kyle Tucker would undoubtedly push the payroll closer to the likes of the Phillies ($284 million in 2025) and the Yankees ($293 million).

While spending usually bodes well for teams, the Mets last season were the exception. Pending labour unrest might also be a big wrinkle on the horizon. The current collective agreement between MLB and its players expires in December 2026. The stumbling block will be the owners' fixation on establishing a salary cap.

With the potential for a labour disruption that could impact the 2027 season, the Jays have decided to take an aggressive approach that mirrors that of other top-five spending franchises. Signing Cease so early in the offseason is an indication of that. They are investing heavily in core talent, leveraging fan engagement across Canada and globally, and maximizing sponsorship opportunities.

The 2027 season isn't guaranteed, so the Jays are positioning themselves to make another deep run in 2026. After that, the Jays, along with all of MLB, will need to navigate uncertain waters. Remember what happened in 1994? If not, the recent Netflix documentary about the Montreal Expos highlights the building of what would have been a dynasty. Unfortunately, the work stoppage and a lack of ownership direction ultimately cost the city its team.

The Jays are in a more enviable position. They are owned by a big company that is able to connect the dots when it comes to spending, success and revenue. They have a fanbase that extends beyond the city to an entire country. While the economics of baseball don’t make it easy on the team, they have found a formula that works. Here’s hoping that formula can weather a few more signings and a potential labour disruption.