Chase Lee Is a Worthwhile Upside Play for the Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays added $37 million to their fast-growing payroll last Friday night, but just a few hours before they signed Tyler Rogers, they completed their first trade of the offseason. Right-hander Chase Lee is on his way over from the Tigers, with lefty relief prospect Johan Simon going the other way. It's a one-for-one swap of bullpen arms.

Here's the skinny on Lee: He's 27 years old and made his MLB debut in 2025, so he has six years left of team control. He pitched in low leverage for Detroit, and while his first taste of the majors wasn't a disaster by any stretch, he did get knocked around a bit (4.10 ERA, 5.16 xERA, 4.53 FIP). However, he was good enough at Triple A to warrant a call-up, with a career strikeout rate just under 30% in parts of four seasons. He managed a 20.7% K-BB there in 2025 despite a 6.47 ERA, which ballooned thanks in large part to a shockingly low 48% strand rate. The Tigers, choosing to trust the strong peripherals, gave him a look, and here we are.

Lee is a side-armer. His 80-mph sweeper is his best weapon, averaging a whopping 19 inches of glove-side movement from a -4° arm angle. He has a sinker that sits 89 mph with plenty of drop from that low arm slot, and he also uses a four-seamer to change hitters' eye levels, as well as a changeup against lefties. Pitch quality models are torn as to which fastball is better; he deployed the four-seam more to lefties while the sinker was his go-to against righties, but the sweeper plays. It got a 120 Stuff+ score at FanGraphs in 2025, while PitchingBot's stuff model gave it a 60 on the 20-80 scale. 

Lee was able to crack Baseball America's list of the top 30 Tigers prospects earlier this year, mostly because of how much upside the sweeper has. He also earned a 60 grade for his control from BA's panel of evaluators, and since being traded from Texas to Detroit in the Andrew Chafin deal in 2024, he has put up zone rates in the high-50s at every level he has pitched. He throws a lot of strikes, but unlike most side-armers, he also got plenty of strikeouts coming up through the minors. He ran into one too many barrels once he reached the majors (13.9% Barrel/BBE, second percentile), but with a plus breaking ball and multiple fastball shapes from an unfamiliar release point, the best is yet to come.

The Blue Jays entered Friday with the likes of Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland, Yimi García, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, Tommy Nance, and Eric Lauer crowding the bullpen depth chart. On top of that, they just selected Spencer Miles in the Rule 5 draft. Lee has minor league options to spare, and he wound up being the first of two relievers with a negative arm angle that Toronto acquired in short succession, and the other one is making eight figures for the next three years. It's safe to assume Lee will start 2026 in Buffalo, but the potential is there for him to become a big league middle reliever in the near future. 

What's interesting about this deal is that to acquire this low-slot reliever with a nasty breaking ball, it cost the Blue Jays... a low-slot reliever with a nasty breaking ball. Simon is a 24-year-old lefty who saw Double-A action for the first time this past year, and it went swimmingly (2.38 ERA, 32.7% K, 11.1 IP). He had to spend parts of four years in Rookie ball to get a walk problem under control, not seeing Class A until eight months ago, so he's far from a finished product.

Of all pitching prospects who threw at least 250 sliders in 2025, Simon's slider was the very best according to Baseball America's Stuff+ model. It touches the mid-80s from a low 3/4 delivery, making it an absolute nightmare for lefty hitters. He hopped from Dunedin to Vancouver to New Hampshire this summer, so he's certainly on a positive trajectory, but the injuries and inconsistency that kept him in rookie ball have prevented him from becoming a ranked prospect to this point.

This seems like a smart deal for both teams, involving two high-upside pitchers who are fairly similar, albeit with different handedness and at different points in their careers. Detroit needed to clear a 40-man roster spot to make the re-signing of reliever Kyle Finnegan a possibility, and both teams still get the chance to develop an under-the-radar reliever with a great sweeper. Lee won't get a long MLB leash on a Blue Jays team urgently trying to win, but he figures to be on the short list whenever injuries arise or the flexibility of having an optionable piece is needed.