Blue Jays Unclutch Plays: Loperfido's Dagger, And Untimely Baserunning

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

Last Monday, the Jays completed the march back to .500, their first day with a breakeven record since May 29. This was immediately followed by what could be a season-defining 6-game losing streak. The final 2 games of their series against the Astros were lost in the late innings, and 3 of the 4 losses in the demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Rangers were decided by 1 run. The offense continues to be a non-factor early in games, starting pitchers aren't delivering much length, and their season suddenly appears bleak. Thanks to all of that, this edition of Clutch Plays will examine the pivotal plays of the past week in reverse order. Here are the moments that stung the most.

Pitching

3. Kevin Gausman: Wyatt Langford 3-run HR, Top 3, 6/25 (-20.6% WPA)

Gausman has been a symbol of consistency and stability throughout his entire Blue Jays tenure, but in his past two starts, he hasn't looked anything like himself. He gave up a solo shot to Joc Pederson, the first batter he faced, in Thursday's opener against Texas, before leaving a slider a little too high to Wyatt Langford with a couple of men on. Langford was placed on the IL a couple days later, but with this homer, he made sure to leave his mark on this series.

2. Louis Varland: Wild Pitch, Top 9, 6/28 (-32.9% WPA) 

Just minutes after the Jays finally tied the game on Nathan Lukes's homer, Varland bounced a first-pitch changeup to Corey Seager. Alejandro Kirk couldn't spear it on the backhand, and even worse, couldn't find the ball as it rolled deep into foul territory to the first-base side of home. This allowed Jarred Kelenic, pinch-running for Josh Jung after his 2-out double kept the inning alive, to score all the way from second as the eventual winning run, capping off a sequence that perfectly encapsulated how things have been going in Toronto lately.

1. Braydon Fisher: Joey Loperfido 3-run HR, Top 11, 6/23 (-57.5% WPA)

It's hard not to feel sympathetic for Fisher, who posted a huge 0 in the 10th inning to put the Jays in a good position to win it in the bottom half. However, the top of the order could not deliver, and Fisher had to go back out for the 11th. He struck out 2 after intentionally walking Yordan Alvarez and got to 2 strikes against Joey Loperfido, but ultimately fell one pitch short as the former Blue Jay cranked what is likely to be the highest WPA hit of the season against his old team.

Hitting

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Flyout vs Logan VanWey, Bot 10, 6/23 (-13.1% WPA}

Guerrero, whose OPS on the season now sits below .700 after the least productive months of his career, had many chances to deliver in a big moment for his team over the course of the past two series. This one will hurt the most. It wasn't a terrible swing on a well-located slider from Logan VanWey, but the ball harmlessly settled into Brice Matthews's glove at the edge of the track in right-center, setting into motion the events that would lead to the Jays losing in the 11th.

2. George Springer: Groundout vs Logan VanWey, Bot 10, 6/23 (-20.2% WPA)

Before Guerrero's first-pitch flyout, George Springer had a chance to walk it off without even recording a hit. Things began on a promising note as he got ahead 1-0, but his ensuing swing on a VanWey slider well off the outside corner of the plate was an apt representation of how the Jays' plate discipline struggles have held them back this year. He was lucky to even make contact and in hindsight, it might've been better if he didn't. Instead, it was a slow roller to short with the infield in and an easy second out.

1. George Springer: Flyout DP vs Bryan King, Bot 8, 6/24 (-20.7% WPA)

Luis Urias made a good first impression in his team debut, knocking a 2-run homer as part of a 2-hit game. The next night, though, he had a mental lapse at second base that couldn't have come in a bigger spot. With the Jays trailing 2-1 after Jeff Hoffman and Kazuma Okamoto got crossed up on a confusing pickoff play at first, Urias represented the tying run as Springer once again found himself ahead in the count. He got a middle-away fastball from Bryan King, the kind of pitch he's driven the other way to right field so many times when he's on, and drilled it into the right field corner. Cam Smith made a beautiful leaping catch at the wall, but Urias thought it dropped, and was a deer in the headlights by the time the throw came back to second.