Do the Blue Jays Have the Depth To Keep Pitching Deep?

The Toronto Blue Jays have played 24 games this season. Their starting pitchers have thrown at least five innings in all but two of those contests. No team in baseball has gotten more five-inning outings from its starting staff. 

José Berríos and Chris Bassitt have each gone five deep in all five of their starts. Most notably, Berríos fought his way to five innings on Opening Day, despite giving up runs in each of the first four frames. Bassitt, the surprise ace of the staff so far, faced his toughest challenge of the season last night, making it through 5 ⅓ despite a three-run first inning. 

Kevin Gausman has tossed 31 ⅓ innings over five starts, pitching into the sixth inning each time. That includes a strenuous game against the Mets, in which he failed to strike out a single batter, and a challenging start against the Astros earlier this week, in which he gave up a season-high three walks and four earned runs. He muscled his way through a four-run fifth inning in Houston and then threw a clean sixth for good measure.

Bowden Francis has also pitched into the sixth in each of his appearances, though he, too, has faced adversity at times. His walks are up compared to last season, and he has already given up five home runs in four games.

Even Easton Lucas went at least five innings in each of his first three career starts. His 5 ⅓-inning showing against the Red Sox was the deepest outing of his professional career. He also demonstrated tenacity against the Braves last week, making his way to the end of the fifth despite giving up eight earned runs that day. 

Indeed, the fact that Toronto’s starters have been able to work five innings, even on days they haven’t had their best stuff, is a big part of what makes this all so impressive. 

The only two times this season that John Schneider had to remove his starter before the sixth inning were when Max Scherzer exited early due to injury and when the inexperienced Lucas simply hit his breaking point this past Sunday. 

This is all by design. Berríos, Gausman, and Bassitt are workhorses. That’s why the Blue Jays acquired them. Since 2023, they rank second, fourth, and sixth, respectively, among AL starters in innings pitched. Scherzer might not fit into the workhorse category anymore, but he knows as well as anyone what it means to be a durable starting pitcher. He’s travelling with the team right now, despite his injury status, and there is little doubt the Blue Jays value his mentorship in the clubhouse almost as much as his presence on the mound. 

The Blue Jays seem to be raising their younger starters with similar workhorse values. Francis has pitched at least five innings in 15 of his 17 career starts. Meanwhile, the fact that Lucas went five deep in each of his first three outings is perhaps even stronger proof of how highly the Blue Jays value five-inning starts. Prior to joining the Blue Jays organization, he had never thrown more than four innings in a game in his professional career. 

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Blue Jays starters rank fifth in the majors in innings pitched this year. They’re sixth in innings pitched per game. But I wonder if “five-inning outings” is a more useful metric for evaluating a starting rotation’s ability to work deep into games. 

A team that gets seven innings from its starting pitcher one day and three innings the next would have the same total of starter innings as a team that gets five innings from its starter day in and day out. Yet, the second hypothetical team is in a stronger position to make a bullpen plan – and stick to it.  

For what it’s worth, Toronto’s bullpen has looked much improved so far this season. After finishing last in the AL (yes, even worse than the White Sox) with a 4.82 ERA and -2.5 FanGraphs WAR in 2024, Blue Jays relievers have a perfectly respectable 3.68 ERA in 2025. Even better than their ERA is their collective 1.63 Win Probability Added, which ranks second in the AL. They also rank fifth in the Junior Circuit in Statcast expected ERA and first in Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA). At this point in the season, those are all more meaningful numbers than bullpen ERA, which can be easily skewed by a few bad games or a few bad performers. 

Could the arm barn’s early-season success have anything to do with the fact that the starters are pitching deeper into games on a more consistent basis? Last year, when the bullpen was a disaster, Blue Jays starters tied for 10th in the AL with 115 five-inning starts. They're on pace for 149 such starts in 2025. That pace won't last, but that's beside the point. Toronto's relievers are thriving right now because the starters are putting them in a better position to do so. Without a doubt, many more factors are at play that can help explain the bullpen’s improvement, but I’m inclined to believe the starters have at least a little something to do with it. 

Now for the million-dollar question: Will the Blue Jays’ starters continue to support their relievers with consistent, five-inning starts? It’s a pretty safe bet that Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt, and even Francis will continue to do so. But then we get to the problem. To pitch five innings every day, the Blue Jays need five starters. They currently only have four. 

Thanks to a couple of off days coming up, the Jays could theoretically survive with a four-man rotation until May 3. That buys them some time, but not much. It’s highly unlikely Scherzer would be ready to pitch by then. Lucas could theoretically make another start (he'll be eligible to return from his optional assignment by early May), but presumably, the team optioned him to allow him to get some extended run as a starter at Triple-A. 

Furthermore, the Blue Jays might not want to wait that long to choose a new fifth starter. Schneider has made it clear he does not want to overwork Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt, and Francis. After all, he needs them fresh enough to pitch five innings on the days they do take the mound. 

So, who could step into the Blue Jays rotation, potentially as early as next week? Not long ago, Yariel Rodríguez might have seemed like the most obvious candidate. However, he has struggled pitching out of the bullpen this season. Moreover, the Blue Jays could have moved him back to the rotation when Scherzer initially got hurt. The fact that they kept him in the 'pen suggests they’re focused on his potential as a reliever right now. That’s not too surprising, considering how often he struggled to escape the fifth inning in his starts last year. 

Right-hander Jake Bloss is one of the most promising pitching prospects in the system, but he has yet to pitch more than 4 ⅔ innings in a game since he joined the Blue Jays organization. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson mentioned 25-year-old righty Lazaro Estrada as another prospect to watch. Yet, he, like Bloss, has not yet demonstrated he can reach the five-inning threshold in a Triple-A outing.

Perhaps, then, the two most likely rotation options to keep an eye on are Paxton Schultz and Eric Lauer. Schultz dazzled in 4 ⅓ innings of relief in his MLB debut. Although it’s been a while since he was a full-time starting pitcher, he has experience pitching into the sixth at Triple-A – unlike Bloss and Estrada. Lauer would be the more conventional choice, although he would require a spot on the 40-man roster. The 29-year-old, who signed a minor league deal with the Jays last December, has pitched five innings in each of his past three starts with the Buffalo Bisons. Over 112 big league starts from 2018-23, he averaged just over five innings per outing.

To fans who have been following baseball for decades, five innings might not feel like a long start. Yet, in this day and age, a starter who goes five deep is a starter who’s done his job. So far in 2025, no team’s starters have done that job better than Toronto’s. Indeed, getting deep outings from their starters seems to be a key component of the Blue Jays’ overall pitching strategy. Now that their depth at the back of the rotation is being tested, it will be more important than ever that Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt, and Francis continue to provide consistent innings four out of every five days.