A Close Look at Gage Stanifer's Rise Through the Minors and Improved Arsenal

Every year in this new age of pitching data and different methods of development, pitchers in the minor leagues have taken giant leaps forward into the starlight. Oftentimes, it is hard to tell whether the leap is from continued progression of natural talent, or from painstakingly rigorous workouts to improve deficient areas, or from sifting through the mountains of data at the fingertips of players, coaches, and trainers to find an edge. There is always the hope that a team has struck gold, found the holy grail, unearthed the buried treasures, or any number of superlatives that can be said to describe the eureka moment when a pitcher breaks out in the minor leagues.

The Toronto Blue Jays this year may have just hit the motherload, so to speak, with a prospect currently at High-A Vancouver (after being promoted from Single-A Dunedin). This pitcher possesses the potential to be a top-tier starting pitcher or, at the very least, a high-leverage shutdown reliever. Either way, he has gone from being relatively unknown in the dark depths of prospectdom to riding an ignited rocketship through the clouds and the mist of obscurity, coming out into the world of stardom. Well, maybe it's not that extreme, but it is definitely time to take notice of Gage Stanifer and the improvements he has made from last season. They have transformed him into one of the best, if not the best, pitching prospects on a High-A Vancouver team that is loaded with talent. Yes, he has been that good, and the numbers back it up. On a team bursting at the seams with elite pitchers and some unicorn pitch data, Stanifer is a gold nugget with eye-popping stats and pitch metrics. 

Background
Stanifer was drafted as an 18-year-old out of Westfield High School in Indiana during the 2022 MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He was selected 578th overall in the 19th round. From there, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound pitcher would wait to make his professional debut until 2023 in the Florida Coast League. He would pitch in 11 games, of which seven were as a starting pitcher.

His statline in his first full professional season was not anything remarkable and, in fact, was a bit disappointing. He pitched a total of 42.2 innings, had a 6.33 ERA, and struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced, but he had a walk rate of 11.9%. He did not do well at limiting contact, as he was hit hard to the tune of a .268 batting average against. This would all culminate in a FIP and xFIP that were only moderately better than his ERA, at 4.42 and 4.77, respectively. 

In 2024, Stanifer would move up from Rookie ball to Single-A Dunedin. Starting in 17 games and pitching in a total of 19, things did not improve, as many areas of his statistical profile declined or shifted in a negative direction. He would pitch 59.2 innings with an almost identical 6.34 ERA, while his strikeout rate decreased to 23.2% and his walk rate ballooned up to 18.1%. Despite ascending to the next level, he was able to limit some damage compared to the previous season, as batters would hit for a lower average (.249). However, his FIP and xFIP both increased to a troublesome 5.27 and 5.24. It was a rough season and one in which hitters did very well against him when it came to hitting the ball in the air. He only had a groundball rate of 38.5%, and this was actually somehow an improvement from the year before, when it was just 31.4%. He needed to make changes to get things back on track. 

The 2025 season has represented a night-and-day transformation for Stanifer. He remained at the Single-A level to start the year, but he did so with a newly refined pitch mix and much-improved individual pitches. He has exemplified improvement on the mound on his way to being one of the best pitchers in the Blue Jays' farm system across the first two months of the season.

Each game he has pitched so far this season has been in a piggyback role following Trey Yesavage, so the innings have been mostly capped at a maximum of four each appearance. Even with that limitation, he has pitched in 11 games across Single-A and High-A, throwing 41 innings with a sparkling 1.32 ERA (eighth in the minor leagues, min. 40 IP). He has struck out hitters at a 39.5% rate, dropped his walk rate down to 13.6%, and leads minor league baseball with a .116 batting average against (minimum 40 IP). Even his FIP and xFIP are in stark contrast to 2024, as they currently sit at 2.28 and 2.86, respectively. He also has a 16.5% swinging strike rate, which is good enough for top 10 in the minor leagues (min. 40 IP). His groundball rate has increased by almost 30%, and his ability to throw strikes has increased by five percent. This season, he has completely transformed into one of the most dominant and exciting pitching prospects in the Blue Jays' system and one of the top breakout arms in the minor leagues. 

What Changed?
Let's take a deeper look into Stanifer's profile and see how he became a star at Single-A Dunedin this season, a level where he had some issues in the past.

The first noticeable difference in his pitching profile this season, and probably the driving factor in his pending meteoric rise in the prospect world, is the jump in velocity on his fastball. Starting this past offseason, he has shown an increase in velocity, all the way to the top end of the pitching spectrum: triple digits! He hit 100.2 mph, to be exact, in an offseason workout. 

The velocity gains haven't been just on his fastball though, as Stanifer has increased the speed of his entire pitch mix:

Improved Pitches and Pitch Mix

Sinker
This season, Stanifer's sinker (more of a two-seam fastball) has become an elite unicorn pitch for the most part. For the season at Dunedin, the pitch averaged 95.4 mph, 17.7” of IVB, 12.8” of HB, 2378 RPM, a release height of 5.65 feet, and 6.2 feet of extension. All of those numbers are an improvement compared to the 2024 season. The IVB is up five inches, the horizontal break is three inches more than last year, and he has put more spin on the baseball. All of these changes have led to a sinker that is playing beautifully up in the zone, where he uses the pitch frequently. The high IVB and horizontal break make the pitch much harder for hitters to connect with at the top of the zone and allow for less hard contact. Stanifer is now using the pitch almost exclusively as his predominant fastball. It's up to 65.2% usage compared to 52.9% in the 2024 season. The added velocity and improved pitch shape have led to an excellent fastball, grading out as almost a 70-grade pitch for the season so far by @TJStats (image and pitching grades by @TJStats below). The whiff rate on the pitch has also increased from 25.6% (2024) up to 36.8% (2025). 

The overall improvement of Stanifer's fastball has led to an extreme drop in the number of hits he has allowed off the pitch this year. The batting average arising from his sinkers plummeted from .342 last season down to an almost minuscule .159 this season when he was at Single-A. 

The upper end of the pitch was on display in his final start at Single-A Dunedin before he was promoted to High-A Vancouver. In that game, the sinker ended up grading as a 72 by @TJStats, and the tjStuff+ was 110. It was truly an elite pitch that night, with an average of 19.2” of induced vertical break and 12.7” of horizontal movement, with batters whiffing 56.3% of the time. One of the outlier traits seen in his last start was that the sinker had a vertical approach angle of -3.7°. This means that as the ball crossed the plate, it did so at a very flat angle. The flatter VAA also results in the pitch working much better up in the strike zone. 

Slider
Stanifer's slider, like his sinker, is not a typical one. It is a form of a gyro slider or death ball slider. The pitch is characterized by a bigger emphasis on vertical drop with limited horizontal movement. This season at Dunedin, the pitch had an average velocity of 84.7 mph with 42.9” of vertical break, to go with only 1.3” of horizontal break (currently to his arm side). Like with his sinker, these numbers are an improvement on the pitch metrics from his 2024 season. Specifically, the slider is two miles per hour faster, has 1.4” more of vertical break, and is breaking less horizontally. The pitch works great with his sinker because it has the opposite directional movement coming from a similar release point. The sinker works horizontally and the slider vertically, while having a 10+ mph difference in velocity.

Interestingly enough, the whiff rate on the slider has dropped slightly this year, going from 50% down to a 47.3% rate. That's still an excellent amount of swing and miss on the pitch. Stanifer is also throwing the pitch a little more often this season, up to 23.1%. Even though the whiff rate has decreased a little bit, hitters are doing a lot less with the pitch. Over the 92 sliders he threw, hitters did not have a single hit off the pitch in Single-A. As you can see in the @TJStats image above, the slider grades out as a 50, with a tjStuff+ of 103. It's not as dynamic and special as the sinker, but it's still a good pitch and one Single-A hitters were not able to handle at all when paired with the sinker. 

Changeup
Stanifer's third main pitch this season has been a changeup. In his stint at Single-A Dunedin, he only threw the pitch 9% of the time, and it was the least missed pitch by hitters from his repertoire. Batters were only missing 13.3% of the time when they swung at the pitch. The main difference in the changeup this season is in its velocity. It is now coming in at an average of 87.3 mph instead of 85.1 mph. However, with the increased velocity, hitters had just a .111 batting average on the pitch in Single-A this season compared to a .214 batting average in 2024.

Simplified Mechanics
In 2024, Stanifer used a more traditional windup with no runners on base. He would bring the glove up to his head, then step back, turn, and go into the pitch. Now he is using a traditional stretch setup and set position. His hands remain lower at his stomach, and the transfer up to his head has been removed. 

What's Next
Stanifer hasn't been the prospect name many Toronto Blue Jays fans are following this season, but maybe he should be. To offer major league equivalents for each of his pitches, when minor league hitters step into the box, they are going up against a sinker that compares to Josh Hader's or Robert Suarez's, a slider similar to Clay Holmes's, a changeup reminiscent of Spencer Strider's, and a four-seam fastball like Caden Dana's. If one were to build a starting pitcher in a science lab, one would find it pretty difficult to put together a more unique and exciting profile.

On the stacked Dunedin and Vancouver rosters, Stanifer has one of the best pitchers, as well as one of the best in all of Single-A and High-A for many reasons. After their promotions to High-A, he, Trey Yesavage (now moving to Double-A), and Khal Stephen are onto the next chapter of the season. With his improved pitches and pitch mix, Stanifer will look to continue his success and cement his breakout on the mound. He will likely need to improve his changeup and increase its usage to take the next step. Maybe it won't be as a star pitching prospect, but he has that ceiling considering the kind of pitcher he has become. He is now one of the most exciting and dynamic arms in the Toronto Blue Jays' farm system, and hopefully fans enjoy watching his rise through the minor leagues. 

Stats updated following Stanifer's latest appearance on June 6.

Interested in learning more about the Toronto Blue Jays' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!