Is Eric Lauer Changing His Ways?

[Leo Morgenstern]

Eric Lauer wanted to prove he could start full-time in 2026. He hasn't had the results he was hoping for yet.

Much like the rest of the Blue Jays, Lauer looked sharp in the season's opening series against the Athletics. Then the floor fell out from under him. Battling through the flu, he lasted just two innings against the White Sox. Six days later, perhaps still suffering the aftereffects of his illness, he gave up seven runs to the Twins. To his credit, he gave up all seven in the third inning and stuck it out into the sixth, but his final line was hardly inspiring: two home runs, five walks, and just three strikeouts in 5.1 innings. 

Judging by the box score, Lauer's most recent outing last week against the Diamondbacks was a return to form. In five innings, he struck out four, walked just one, and limited Arizona to three runs. Yet, he expressed frustration that he entered after an opener, telling reporters after the game: "To be real blunt, I hate it. I can't stand it."

Lauer's response wasn't surprising. He has made it very clear he wants to be a regular starter. And while it's easy to understand the logic behind the opener – Lauer pitched through the sixth inning and only had to face Arizona's dangerous top three twice – it's just as easy to understand why he didn't like it. He's a competitor. He doesn't want to avoid opponents like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo. He wants to face them head-on. That's precisely the attitude you want in a pitcher, especially if that pitcher also understands that he ultimately has to do what's best for the team. As Lauer put it, "You work with what you got... We're trying to find ways to win."

The early part of Lauer's 2026 has been characterized by ups and downs, by jerks and tugs, by ebbs and flows. He spent the winter watching his chances of an Opening Day rotation slot dwindle. First, Shane Bieber picked up his player option. Then the Jays signed Dylan Cease. And Cody Ponce. And Max Scherzer. Like Schrödinger's pitcher, Lauer came into spring training as both a starter and a reliever simultaneously. He saw himself as a starter. The Blue Jays had him stretch out as a starter. Yet, the fans, the team, and Lauer himself all knew he was more likely to end up in the bullpen.

Until he didn't.

That's a tough way to prepare for the season, and the past few weeks haven't exactly helped him settle into a routine. So, when I say the 2026 season hasn't started the way Lauer was hoping it would, I don't mean that as an all-out criticism. It's just as much a justification. I'm not ready to judge Lauer for his 7.13 ERA or his -0.1 fWAR. Instead, I'm happy to let each new start be a blank slate, at least for the time being.

With that in mind, I'm not going to draw any serious conclusions about Lauer today. But I do want to examine the way he's deploying his arsenal this season and, in particular, one pitch. Fittingly, in a year that has already been marked by changes, that pitch is his changeup. 

Lauer threw 134 changeups last year, accounting for 8.0% of his total pitches. However, since he almost never throws the pitch against same-handed opponents, it's more meaningful to say he used it 10.3% of the time against righties. It was his quaternary weapon against right-handers, behind his four-seam fastball (45.2%), his cutter (20.2%), and his curveball (15.8%), and just ahead of his slider (8.3%).

Four starts into 2026, he's more than doubled his changeup usage. Lauer has already thrown 58 changeups to righties this year, almost half as many as he threw in all of 2025. With a 21.9% usage rate, it's become his secondary pitch against opposite-handed hitters. When he's ahead in the count, he's throwing it almost as often as his fastball. In two-strike counts, he's thrown as many changeups as all his other secondaries combined. 

The reason I find this adjustment so surprising is that, well, Lauer's changeup wasn't very good in 2025. Honestly, it kind of sucked. Right-handed opponents crushed the pitch, posting a 55.6% hard-hit rate, a .430 wOBA, and .544 xwOBA. By Statcast's run value per 100 pitches (RV/100), it was one of the 10 least effective changeups in the league. 

Of course, sometimes good pitches see bad results. But I don't think that's what this was. According to the pitch models PitchingBot and Stuff+, Lauer's changeup was well below average in terms of both stuff and location. There just wasn't anything to love about it. That's not to say it had no role in his arsenal; it came in at a similar speed to his cutter but broke in the opposite direction, giving him a way to get righties to chase outside. The problem was that it wasn't particularly good at accomplishing that goal.

The classic advice is to throw your best pitch more often, not your worst. I'm not sure what Lauer's up to.

Clearly, he thinks his changeup can be better this year. He's also throwing it a little differently, in pursuit of that goal. For one thing, he's getting more arm-side movement on the pitch this year. The result is an offering that's further differentiated from the rest of his arsenal. That's what you want from a changeup: change. 

Lauer is also locating his changeup in the zone more often, without sacrificing chase. That means more strikes. Indeed, he's already recorded two strikeouts on his changeup this year. That may not sound like much, but consider that he didn't strike out any right-handed batters with his changeup last season. 

Despite those adjustments, PitchingBot and Stuff+ remain unenthused by Lauer's changeup. It's also far too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from the results. So, over Lauer's next handful of outings, I'll be paying attention to when, where, and how often he throws his changeup. I'm happy to give him and Pete Walker the benefit of the doubt for now, but if he continues to underwhelm, eventually I'll start wondering why he changed an approach that worked pretty darn well in 2025.

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