Could It Be Miller Time for the Blue Jays?

[Jim Scott]

At the 2025 trade deadline, the Padres traded shortstop Leo De Vries (a top-10 prospect in all of MLB) and pitchers Henry Baez, Braden Nett and Eduarniel Núñez to the A’s for fireballer closer Mason Miller and solid starter JP Sears. It was widely regarded as a high price for the Padres to pay, but Miller was (and is) considered one of the best closers in baseball. This past season, his 15.18 K/9 and average fastball velocity of 101.2 mph were both the highest in the majors by comfortable margins, and his Stuff+ of 123 was fifth best among pitchers with at least 50 IP (the highest Stuff+ in 2025? New Jay Tyler Rogers with 128!)

Among the main selling points for Miller are his team control and cost. He has just under three years of service time and is not expected to become a free agent until after the 2029 season. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2026, with a projected salary (per MLB Trade Rumors) in the $3.4 million range. That's cheap for a top closer.

Miller certainly sounds like a keeper. But Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is unpredictable, so when rumours are being floated that he is in discussion with the Mets about a possible Miller deal, they can not be easily dismissed. But it raises the question: Should the Jays be in the Miller derby?

Let’s start with the fit. A Blue Jays bullpen of Miller – Hoffman – Rogers – García – Varland – Lauer – Fluharty – Little (Ponce? Miles? Bastardo? Tiedemann?) would be one of the best (if not THE best) in baseball. And it would have the advantage of depth, with the top four all having closing experience.

There is also a chance of Miller being converted back to a starting role, one he briefly held in his first season with the A's, putting up a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 3.49 xERA in four starts before suffering a UCL sprain. The Jays are said to be  looking for arms "capable of starting".  But stretching him out would be dangerous, given the stress that his extreme velocity places on his arm. His "mild" UCL sprain in 2023 led to a four-month stint on the injured list. The reward of trying to move him to the rotation might not outweigh the risk.

So, what would the Padres be looking for in a Miller trade? Most writers agree that the Padres’ most immediate needs are two or three starting pitchers (with Dylan Cease lost and Yu Darvish hurt) and at least one power bat of the 1B/DH type (with Luis Arráez and Ryan O’Hearn both free agents). An uber-prospect to replace De Vries would also be welcome.

The Jays do not have a prospect of De Vries’ calibre. As Trey Yesavage is likely off the table, the top prospect going back to the Padres would likely have to be Arjun Nimmala or JoJo Parker.

For the first starting pitcher, the Jays might have to start with Eric Lauer. In 15 starts (74 IP) in 2025, he pitched to a 3.77 ERA. Alternatively, the Jays could offer José Berrós with cash to reduce his cost.

For the additional pitcher(s), the Padres would likely expect arms with some MLB experience and upside, but with issues that would need to be resolved. Bowden Francis had a poor 2025, but in 13 starts (77 innings) in 2024, he had an outstanding 2.92 ERA and .221 OBP. Jake Bloss had Tommy John surgery in May 2025, but he was considered a top-100 prospect by FanGraphs before he went down, and he had a 3.18 ERA across the minors in 2024. And Ricky Tiedemann was ranked #22 on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list prior to the 2024 season.

If the Jays did choose to include a slugger, it might make sense to discuss Anthony Santander (again, with a potential paydown). Santander had a poor 2025, largely due to injury, but from 2022-24, his 105 home runs were sixth in baseball, and his .234 ISO was top 20. If the Jays succeeded in signing Kyle Tucker, their outfield could be crowded (assuming Springer as the primary DH), with Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, and Myles Straw all competing for the remaining two outfield spots. And Santander projects better as a DH, which would perfectly fit San Diego’s needs.

So, suppose the deal were Nimmala/Parker + Lauer/Berrios+$$$/Tiedemann + Bloss/Francis? Would the Padres accept? Or what if the Jays offered Francis + Berríos + Santander + $$$, possibly with an additional prospect?

The Bottom Line

It is always dangerous paying top dollar – whether in cash or in player capital – for a top reliever, as their performance can be unpredictable and inconsistent. But in Miller’s case, the talent is unquestionable. Is it high enough, and does a player who only pitches about 60 innings a year merit, the very high price the Jays would have to pay?

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