Article: ALDS Preview: Guess Who’s Coming to Toronto?

[Mike LeSage]

They made us wait until Game 162 before making it official, but the Toronto Blue Jays are the American League Champions. With the number one seed, they have given themselves homefield advantage and a bye directly to the ALDS. They await either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. We can argue the merits of the way MLB organizes its brackets, so that the one-seeded Jays will face either the #2 or #4 team (by record) in the League, but that’s long been the way the Jays have been forced to live in the AL East. Fittingly, the path out of the East goes through Toronto this year. Interestingly, Toronto has never faced the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. So let’s take a look at those two rivals and see if there is one we’d rather face.

Team: New York Yankees
Record: 94-68
Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (1-6 at Rogers Centre)
Top Hitters (fWAR): Aaron Judge (10.1), Cody Bellinger (4.9), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.4)
Judge is 6-for-23 (.261) in 35 plate appearances with zero home runs and 0 RBI against current Jays pitchers. His home runs came against Chris Bassitt (x2) and Yimi García - both currently on the IL. Bassitt is, of course, eligible to come off the IL and may find himself as the starter in Game 3 or 4, so it is not a matchup to ignore. Bellinger hit .298 against Toronto this year with a pair of homers (Scherzer and Fluhart,y) with his best performances coming at Rogers Centre. Chisholm Jr. did the majority of his damage against Toronto in a pair of Scherzer starts (2 for 4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI). 

Top Pitchers (fWAR): Max Fried (4.8), Carlos Rodon (3.2), Will Warren (2.1)
Fried went 2-1 against the Jays this season, but posted an ERA just over four in four games and was responsible for the Canada Day homers surrendered to George Springer and Andrés Giménez. Rodón only faced the Jays twice, taking a loss and a no-decision. He only lasted five innings in each outing and held a WHIP of 1.9. Alejandro Kirk was 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles against Rodón. Warren only faced the Jays once and gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs in four innings - wouldn’t we love to see that again?

Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman faced the Yankees four times this season, going 2-1. In his first start, he lacked the command we expect from our ace, and he didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, walking five and giving up three hits to go along with six earned runs. His last two starts were much more in line with vintage Gausman: 15 combined innings and only allowing one earned run each game (both times a solo shot for Giancarlo Stanton).

Team: Boston Red Sox
Record: 89-73
Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (4-3 at Rogers Centre)
Top Hitters (fWAR): Jarren Duran (3.8), Ceddanne Rafaela (3.6), Alex Bregman (3.5)
Duran’s only home run against the Jays came against Bowden Franci, and otherwise he’s hit .240 against the Jays this season. Most notably, he has been hit twice (Hoffman and Heineman), so we may need to look for him crowding the plate in late innings. Rafaela’s only homer against Toronto came off Paxton Schultz, and his two hits against Scherzer are the most given up by any Jay. Over the season, Rafaela hit .231 in 39 ABs against the Jays. Bregman had a 3-for-5 day against Bowden Francis early in the season, but struggled overall against the Jays. He hit .205 on the season against Toronto, and in the series here last week, we went 1-for-11 across the three games played.

Top Pitchers (fWAR): Garrett Crochet (5.8), Aroldis Chapman (2.6), Garrett Whitlock (2.2)
Crochet is probably the pitcher on both teams I would least like to see again. He faced the Jays three times this season and got better with each start, culminating in an eight-inning, three-hit, dominant performance at Rogers Centre last week. Similarly, Chapman has not had many issues with the Blue Jays' bats he has faced this season. In five appearances, totaling five innings of work, he has not allowed a run and has only given up two hits, against seven strikeouts. Whitlock also has only five innings of work against the Jays this year, and they were able to get to him once for three earned runs, giving him a 5.40 ERA against Toronto. However, in his other three appearances, he allowed zero runs, gave up one hit, and struck out five batters.

Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman only made two starts against the Red Sox and was a real mixed bag. In his first outing, he pitched one of his best games of the season, going eight innings and striking out 10 batters against four hits and zero earned runs. His more recent start against them saw Gausman getting touched up on his third time through the order and taking the loss after giving up four runs.

So who do we want?
We’ve seen how quickly things can change over the course of a week, and whoever comes out of the Wild Card round will have just beaten a very good opponent. The Yankees are on a hot streak to close out the regular season, going 9-1 down the stretch. The Red Sox at 6-4 are much closer to the Jays own 5-5 in their last ten. The Yankees’ bats are more fearsome, but the Boston pitching has given Toronto more fits. Boston is the better defensive team, with a fielding run value of +22, compared to the Yankees’ +7 (the Jays lead the League with a +45). Ultimately, I think I’d rather take my chances with Boston, but really, I just want every game of the Wild Card series to go to extra innings and whoever makes their way up here to be tired as hell.

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