Article: The Blue Jays Still Control Their Own Destiny

[Leo Morgenstern]

On July 3, a surging Blue Jays ballclub completed a four-game sweep of the Yankees, officially taking over sole possession of first place in the AL East. Fans knew it might not last long. The Yankees won the division and the AL pennant last year, while the Blue Jays finished in the basement. The Yankees entered that series with the highest run differential in the sport, while the Blue Jays' run differential suggested they were lucky to be above .500. The Yankees were Goliath, and the Blue Jays weren't sure if they were David or just one of the many, many opponents Goliath defeated before David took him down.

But the Blue Jays held on. They held on for months. For 83 days in a row, the Blue Jays owned the highest win total in the AL East. For a solid chunk of that time, they owned the best record in the entire American League. Somewhere along the way, they started to convince us they were serious World Series contenders. On Sunday, they clinched the playoff berth to prove it.

Yet, aside from Sunday's oh-so-satisfying victory, the past seven games have been a reminder of the tough road that's still ahead. The Blue Jays lost four in a row to the Rays and Royals last week. Then, after a quick break to clinch a playoff spot, they returned to their losing ways, dropping a pair against the Red Sox on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nine days ago, the Blue Jays held a four-game lead over the Tigers for the AL's best record. They led the Yankees by five games in the AL East. Last night, with an 8-1 victory over the White Sox, the Yankees closed that gap, settling into a tie with the Blue Jays for the first time in 12 weeks. With four games left to play in the regular season, the AL East race has become a nail-biter.

Anxiety is high within the Blue Jays fanbase right now. I have to imagine it's even higher within the clubhouse. Thankfully, the Blue Jays still hold their fate in their own hands. They won the season series against New York eight games to five, which means that even though the two rivals have identical 90-68 records, Toronto effectively holds a one-game lead. If the Blue Jays can win their final four games over the next four days, they will win the AL East (and a first-round bye) no matter what the Yankees do. 

The Blue Jays' situation is making me think of my days as a little league pitcher. Perhaps the most common piece of advice I heard from coaches was to always focus on the batter with two outs, even with a runner in scoring position. Right now, the Blue Jays have the luxury of only needing to worry about what they can control: winning ballgames. They can ignore the Yankees taking a big lead off of second base. As long as they handle the task that's right in front of them, the Yankees don't matter. 

Of course, winning four in a row won't be easy. So, it's also comforting to remember that, with so few games left to play, owning the tiebreaker is a substantial advantage. Think of it this way. Toronto's four remaining games could go one of 16 ways. They could win all four (W-W-W-W), they could win the first one and lose the next three (W-L-L-L), they could lose the first three and win the last one (L-L-L-W), etc. The same is true for the Yankees. Multiply 16 by 16, and you get the total number of possible Blue Jays-Yankees win-loss combinations: 256. 

In 93 of those scenarios, the Blue Jays finish with a better record than the Yankees. In another 93, the Yankees finish with a better record than the Blue Jays. But that only accounts for 73% of all the possible combinations. In the remaining 70 potential scenarios, the Blue Jays and Yankees finish tied. So, in 163 out of 256 scenarios — almost two-thirds! — the Blue Jays win the AL East. 

All of this math is based on the presumption that any individual outcome is just as likely as any other. Obviously, that isn't really true. Far more factors affect the outcome of a baseball game than a coin flip. Still, I found it therapeutic to lay it out this way. The next few days will be tense, but don't forget that the Blue Jays are still in the driver's seat, and they still control their own destiny. 

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