Article: Which Blue Jays Could Win End-of-Season Awards?

[Leo Morgenstern]

With less than three weeks left to play in the regular season, most of the major end-of-year awards are still up for grabs – and plenty of Blue Jays are in the running. I've sorted all of Toronto's award candidates into five tiers: Likely Winners, Strong Contenders, In the Running, It's Possible, and Unlikely But Worth Discussing. I think those names are all pretty self-explanatory, so let's dive right in.

Stats updated prior to games on September 10.

Likely Winners

• George Springer: Silver Slugger (DH)

Toronto has plenty of award contenders, but there's only one award I'm highly confident will go to a Blue Jay. George Springer is far and away the best choice for the Silver Slugger at DH. It is now the position at which he's played more than half his games, and among primary designated hitters in the American League, no one else can touch Springer statistically. Aaron Judge is really his only competition, and that's only if we wind up with another 2018 J.D. Martinez situation. Unless Judge wins at both positions, his Silver Slugger will be for right field, not DH.

Strong Contenders

• John Schneider: Manager of the Year
• Alejandro Kirk: Gold Glove (C)
• Ty France: Gold Glove (1B)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: All-MLB Second Team (1B)

There are two clear favourites for the AL Manager of the Year Award: John Schneider and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch. Ultimately, I think it will come down to whether the Blue Jays or Tigers finish with the best record in the American League.

Alejandro Kirk is just as deserving of the Gold Glove as any other AL catcher. Among Gold Glove-eligible AL catchers, he ranks first in FRV (by a wide margin) and third in DRS. He's a more famous name than other contenders like Dillon Dingler and Carlos Narvaez, and his superior offensive numbers will give him an edge over guys like Adley Rutschman and Austin Wells. (Neither reputation nor offense is supposed to matter in Gold Glove voting, but they often do.) Ultimately, I think Kirk's biggest competition is Cal Raleigh. Raleigh has worse metrics across the board, but he's the reigning winner, and his eye-popping offensive numbers will definitely win him some votes.

Ty France might not be a full-time starting first baseman anymore, but he was for most of the season in Minnesota, giving him more than enough playing time to qualify for Gold Glove consideration. He leads AL first basemen in FRV, and his DRS ranks second only to Carlos Santana – who plays for the Cubs now. 

I'm not saying Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won't make the All-MLB First Team, but he has tough competition in the form of A's rookie Nick Kurtz. Presuming Kurtz beats Guerrero for the First Team first base spot, Toronto's superstar should be the clear choice for the Second Team, though Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Olson will also be in the running.

In the Running

• Ernie Clement: Gold Glove (Utility)
• George Springer: Comeback Player of the Year
• Bo Bichette: Comeback Player of the Year
• Alejandro Kirk: All-MLB Second Team (C)

Ernie Clement has spent a good amount of time at both second and third base this season, and he's going to get more reps at shortstop while Bo Bichette is on the IL. He has been a full-time player this season without a full-time position, and he's been excellent in that role, racking up 11 OAA, a +8 FRV, and 17 DRS. That's precisely the kind of player the utility Gold Glove was established to celebrate. Unfortunately, he'll have a tough time beating out Mauricio Dubón, a previous winner who has the edge in most metrics.

Springer and Bichette both have a strong case for the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Springer has rebounded in his age-35 campaign after a couple of years of decline, while Bichette has bounced back to his typical form following an injury-marred disappointment of a season. However, as strong as their cases might be, I don't see how anyone other than Jacob deGrom could take home this honour.

Kirk doesn't have a shot at the All-MLB First Team – Raleigh has that one in the bag – but he's in the running for the Second Team. According to FanGraphs WAR, Kirk and Dodgers catcher Will Smith have been similarly valuable this season. It will probably come down to whether voters prioritize offense or defense; Smith has far superior offensive numbers, but Kirk is far more productive with the glove. 

It's Possible

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Silver Slugger (1B), All-MLB First Team (1B)
• Bo Bichette: Silver Slugger (SS)
• George Springer: All-MLB Second Team (DH)
• Alejandro Kirk: Platinum Glove (C)

As I mentioned above, Guerrero is in competition with Kurtz for the AL Silver Slugger and All-MLB First Team honours at first base. Kurtz has the superior rate stats, but Guerrero has the edge in several counting stat categories, since he's played 138 games to Kurtz's 101. If Kurtz slows down at all over the final weeks of the season, Guerrero could absolutely overtake him as the favourite for both prizes.

I would have put Bichette in the "Strong Contender" category if it weren't for his recent injury that very likely took him out of the running for the Silver Slugger at shortstop. Bichette has been every bit as productive at the plate as other top contenders Bobby Witt Jr. and Jeremy Peña, but the more time he misses, the more time Witt and Peña have to pull ahead.

It's going to be Springer vs. Schwarber for the DH spot on the All-MLB Second Team, with Shohei Ohtani the obvious favourite for the First Team spot. With all due respect to Springer and the season he's having, I think Schwarber is more deserving – he has 648 plate appearances to Springer's 505 – but their rate stats are similar, and I could see it going either way.

If Kirk wins the Gold Glove, a Platinum Glove is a real possibility, too. I'd argue Ceddanne Rafaela is the most deserving candidate, but Kirk definitely has a case. That said, the Platinum Glove is hard to predict. Not only do players have to win a Gold Glove to be eligible, but the Platinum Glove is a partially fan-voted award.

Unlikely But Worth Discussing

• George Springer: Edgar Martínez Award

The Outstanding DH Award is Ohtani's to lose, but there will surely be conversations in the coming months about Springer and Schwarber's candidacy. Ohtani has the superior numbers, no doubt about it, but he's also won three years in a row, and voter fatigue is a very real issue. There is absolutely no reason Springer or Schwarber should win, but the topic will come up, so I'm getting ahead of it.

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