BJMB Top 15 prospects for 2017

[King]

Any votes for David Jacobs?

Frenchsoup chose not to send a list. So nope.

[King]

Eric Longenhagen doesn't like him either.

Where is your list, sir?

[BTS]

Where is your list, sir?

 

Not doing one. Not my thing.

[metafour]

More Billy Butler IMO

 

Billy Butler never had much power, so I don't really get this comparison at all.

[TheHurl]

How much can you buy into that though? Keith Law is the only person I've seen actively go out of his way to put down Tellez. And his reasoning is that he struckout a couple times against fireballers in the 2015 AFL (dead serious). He's done more than anyone could have asked for at this point, including hitting 310/404/559 vs RHP as a 21 year old in AA.

 

And I get the criticisms. He'll have no defensive value, and really have to hit to make a major league impact. But until he stops hitting it's hard to argue against him.

 

I think we pretty much see a guy like him every year. Some do okay...some become Mike Carp, Christian Walker, Bryce Brentz, Matt Davidson, Jon Singleton...etc.

 

Honestly because of his body type, lack of defensive value and lack of speed he's still got to hit more just to get his chance IMO. Keep in mind I have a bad body bias, I fully admit that. I've been wrong on guys like him before.

[metafour]

Honestly because of his body type, lack of defensive value and lack of speed he's still got to hit more just to get his chance IMO. Keep in mind I have a bad body bias, I fully admit that. I've been wrong on guys like him before.

 

His body doesn't even look bad. The "Tellez body" thing has quickly approached "Osuna body" hysteria wherein early worry about a "bad body" becomes gospel even after it stops being an actual concern. You can look at all sorts of footage of Tellez from this year; his body looks no different than ~95% of MLB 1B/DH types. He's clearly not very athletic, but it really has nothing to do with his body.

[TheHurl]

Billy Butler never had much power, so I don't really get this comparison at all.

 

Butler as a 20 year old in AA .331/.388/.499 with 15 HR's and 49 xbh...and struck out at a 12% rate. He is probably a very good comp.

[JoshBBR]

1. Vladamir Guerrero Jr.

2. Anthony Alford

3. Rowdy Tellez

4. Harold Ramirez

5. Richard Urena

6. Jon Harris

7. Dalton Pompey

8. Sean Reid-Foley

9. Bo Bichette

10. Angel Perdomo

11. Reese McGuire

12. Connor Greene

13. T.J. Zeuch

14. Justin Maese

15. J.B. Woodman

[Sammy225]

Butler as a 20 year old in AA .331/.388/.499 with 15 HR's and 49 xbh...and struck out at a 12% rate. He is probably a very good comp.

 

As Long as we get the KC version of Butler that is not a bad comparison the Oakland version sucked

[TheHurl]

His body doesn't even look bad. The "Tellez body" thing has quickly approached "Osuna body" hysteria wherein early worry about a "bad body" becomes gospel even after it stops being an actual concern. You can look at all sorts of footage of Tellez from this year; his body looks no different than ~95% of MLB 1B/DH types. He's clearly not very athletic, but it really has nothing to do with his body.

 

Osuna is certainly one I was wrong on and have (as I always do) admitted that. We can leave it as I'm not high on Tellez. Improving his conditioning, and continuing to hit at AAA could change that. I just don't think the Jays are going to hand him a spot, he's not that kind of guy at this point. It's just my opinion on the guy (type of guy, really as I've only seen him play a handful of times). I mean if you are going to hype Tellez as "impact" than the Phillies should be absolutely jerking off to his fellow Sacramentonian Rhys Hoskins, who hit 38 in AA this year (is 2 years older though)...and he's not a guy I'd be hyping either. I won't even get into Dylan Cozens. I will say that Tellez has a chance to be an impact guy and I ranked him 6th for that reason. I wouldn't bet on him that's all.

[43211234]

1. Vladamir Guerrero Jr.

2. Anthony Alford

3. Rowdy Tellez

4. Harold Ramirez

5. Richard Urena

6. Jon Harris

7. Dalton Pompey

8. Sean Reid-Foley

9. Bo Bichette

10. Angel Perdomo

11. Reese McGuire

12. Connor Greene

13. T.J. Zeuch

14. Justin Maese

15. J.B. Woodman

 

Welcome to the board, Josh!

 

Unfortunately Dalton Pompey is not eligible for your list, so you'll have to make an adjustment.

[Bobthe4th]

1. Vladamir Guerrero Jr.

2. Anthony Alford

3. Rowdy Tellez

4. Harold Ramirez

5. Richard Urena

6. Jon Harris

7. Dalton Pompey

8. Sean Reid-Foley

9. Bo Bichette

10. Angel Perdomo

11. Reese McGuire

12. Connor Greene

13. T.J. Zeuch

14. Justin Maese

15. J.B. Woodman

 

Just to let you know that Pompey is not eligible as he's played enough to lose his rookie status.

 

You may want to edit your list in a PM to King.

[Bobthe4th]

Welcome to the board, Josh!

 

Unfortunately Dalton Pompey is not eligible for your list, so you'll have to make an adjustment.

 

Just to let you know that Pompey is not eligible as he's played enough to lose his rookie status.

 

You may want to edit your list in a PM to King.

 

And people say that this board is unfriendly to newcomers!

[TheHurl]

As Long as we get the KC version of Butler that is not a bad comparison the Oakland version sucked

 

yeah the 120 - 140 wRC+ guy wouldn't be bad as I can't see Tellez being that bad on the basepaths...I mean Billy Butler is about to pass Paul Konerko as the worst career baserunning stats in history.

[metafour]

Butler as a 20 year old in AA .331/.388/.499 with 15 HR's and 49 xbh...and struck out at a 12% rate. He is probably a very good comp.

 

I think that you are stat-line scouting. Butler has spent the majority of his MLB career as a contact-oriented slap hitter; which is why he ranks near the top in BA, BABIP, LD%, K%, etc. among qualified DH and near the bottom in ISO, Pull%, etc.

 

I guess that it is possible that Tellez turns into Butler; but he hasn't really shown anything to suggest that he's going to come up and turn into a 6'4 240+ pound hitter who sprays line drives all over the field. Billy Butler is a career .320 BABIP hitter despite the fact that he possesses zero athleticism.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Not doing one. Not my thing.

 

Come on ITS do one, there's really no right or wrong when doing one!

 

Plus since I did one, not like anyone will mock you knowing how knowledgable you are!

 

They will be to busy mocking me!!! Lol

[Laika]

I think a prospect's offensive profile is way more important than body or defence (if the defensive position is not premium).

 

In the case of Tellez, we're talking about a 21 year old. He could change his body in a year. We've seen Osuna change his body dramatically. As far as defence goes, he's playing 1B not SS. He doesn't need arm strength, accuracy or running speed. He just has to catch the ball.

 

You can't tell me he absolutely can't learn how to catch the ball. We were all told Lawrie couldn't do anything defensively and when he came up we were blown away. Hell, we were told EE was a statue at 1B and it turns out he could play the whole year there just fine.

 

It's the same thing with Vladdy Jr (because arm is not a question). So you're telling me this 17 year old can't become more athletic over the next 5 years? He could be the best defensive 3B for all we know. Are guys like Donaldson just born good defensively? I don't think so. It's literally those years from 17 to 25 where you become better.

 

You're misunderstanding. It's not about can or can't, it's about probabilities and likelihood.

[TheHurl]

I think that you are stat-line scouting. Butler has spent the majority of his MLB career as a contact-oriented slap hitter; which is why he ranks near the top in BA, BABIP, LD%, K%, etc. among qualified DH and near the bottom in ISO, Pull%, etc.

 

I guess that it is possible that Tellez turns into Butler; but he hasn't really shown anything to suggest that he's going to come up and turn into a 6'4 240+ pound hitter who sprays line drives all over the field. Billy Butler is a career .320 BABIP hitter despite the fact that he possesses zero athleticism.

 

You do know that Tellez's biggest strength is that he hits the ball to all fields and has good opposite field power? Honestly I'd think it would be great if he became a Billy Butler hitter. I'd say that is his upside.

 

PS. you have an odd interpretation of slap hitter

[wamco]

What percent chance do you give rowdy to become the hitter that morales has been the past few years?

 

Don't bank on rowdy losing weight in BUFFALO. WINGS and RUM for days!!!

Bars open til 4AM!!!

[TheHurl]

In the case of Tellez, we're talking about a 21 year old. He could change his body in a year. We've seen Osuna change his body dramatically. As far as defence goes, he's playing 1B not SS. He doesn't need arm strength, accuracy or running speed. He just has to catch the ball.

 

I fully admitted that my opinion on Tellez could change if he improved his athleticism. As for not needing running speed or defense at 1B...please see the Billy Butler discussion. This is a guy that has been a 115 wRC+ over a 6000 PA career and the baserunning and Defense has brought his career WAR down to half of what Lyle Freakin' Overbay put up.

 

Hell, we were told EE was a statue at 1B and it turns out he could play the whole year there just fine.

 

Who told you that? I'd say that anyone who has the range to play 3B can become a solid 1B. I think that was generally the opinion here.

 

It's the same thing with Vladdy Jr (because arm is not a question). So you're telling me this 17 year old can't become more athletic over the next 5 years? He could be the best defensive 3B for all we know. Are guys like Donaldson just born good defensively? I don't think so. It's literally those years from 17 to 25 where you become better.

 

I think the biggest question about Vladdy Jr. is that they think he will outgrow 3B. People often somehow interpret that as bad. It's incorrect.

[metafour]

Honestly I'd think it would be great if he became a Billy Butler hitter. I'd say that is his upside.

 

You think that his upside is as a 15 HR hitter who posts virtually the same ISO Power rating as Francisco Lindor? That sounds like Rowdy Tellez to you?

 

Just because he hits the ball to all fields; doesn't mean that he is Billy Butler (who is the exact description of what a slap hitting DH/1B looks like). Billy Butler is 260 pounds and posts power numbers similar to half the middle infielders in baseball. His BABIP is abnormally high despite the fact that he cant run at all. He achieves this by...slap-hitting and selling out for contact. This isn't even a knock on Butler who during his prime was a very good contact hitter; I'm just not sure how you can conclude that Tellez turns into this TYPE of hitter just because they had similar AA stats. Butler did have power coming out of HS and going through the minors; but it seemed that once he hit the MLB he prioritized a level swing over driving the baseball. Tellez hasn't done anything to suggest that he will look to emulate that hitting strategy.

[TheHurl]

You think that his upside is as a 15 HR hitter who posts virtually the same ISO Power rating as Francisco Lindor? That sounds like Rowdy Tellez to you?

 

Just because he hits the ball to all fields; doesn't mean that he is Billy Butler (who is the exact description of what a slap hitting DH/1B looks like). Billy Butler is 260 pounds and posts power numbers similar to half the middle infielders in baseball. His BABIP is abnormally high despite the fact that he cant run at all. He achieves this by...slap-hitting and selling out for contact. This isn't even a knock on Butler who during his prime was a very good contact hitter; I'm just not sure how you can conclude that Tellez turns into this TYPE of hitter just because they had similar AA stats. Butler did have power coming out of HS and going through the minors; but it seemed that once he hit the MLB he prioritized a level swing over driving the baseball. Tellez hasn't done anything to suggest that he will look to emulate that hitting strategy.

 

Butler peak had him at 73, 60, 63 and 63 xbh. Including a 29 HR season. I'd say that is okay power. How about we just leave comps out of it and say. I believe that Tellez is not very athletic and if he changes his swing to gain the additional power the K-rates will increase too much. I think he appears to be a pretty good contact hitter who will have to overcome some obstacles to become an impact guy.