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Everything posted by Spanky__99
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2nd year Arb, he'll get like 2.5M.
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He'll opt for FA.
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He doesn't deserve Judge money, imo is all. The 2nd half of that contract is what makes me uneasy. Pay Bo and a stud reliever for that AAV he'll get, I'm comfortably in no thanks at that term.
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I'm using Fangraphs payroll chart... TORONTO BLUE JAYS PLAYER PAYROLL▼ Estimated 2026 Payroll: $233M Legend: FREE AGENT Club Option Player Option Mutual Option Vesting Option Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $258M Estimated Value|Money Owed to Team Players With Guaranteed Salaries▼ Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 26.7 6.157 14 yr, $500M (2026-39) $35,714,286 $40,214,286 $40,214,286 $39,214,286 $38,214,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286 George Springer 36.2 11.166 6 yr, $150M (2021-26) $25,000,000 $24,166,667 FREE AGENT Kevin Gausman 34.9 11.151 5 yr, $110M (2022-26) $22,000,000 $23,000,000 FREE AGENT Andrés Giménez 27.2 5.106 7 yr, $106.5M (2023-29), 2030 club option $19,371,429 $15,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,000,000 José Berríos 31.5 9.044 7 yr, $131M (2022-28); can opt out after 2026 $18,714,286 $18,714,286 $24,714,286 $24,714,286 FREE AGENT Shane Bieber 30.5 7.097 2 yr, $26M (2025-26) $14,555,102 $16,000,000 FREE AGENT Anthony Santander 31.1 7.162 5 yr, $92.5M (2025-29), 2030 club option; can opt out after 2027; can void by picking up option; deferrals lower AAV $14,314,441 $21,000,000 $21,000,000 $14,750,000 $12,750,000 $15,000,000 Alejandro Kirk 27.0 5.047 5 yr, $58M (2026-30) $11,600,000 $8,700,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 FREE AGENT Jeff Hoffman 32.9 7.084 3 yr, $33M (2025-27) $11,000,000 $12,666,667 $12,666,667 FREE AGENT Myles Straw 31.1 5.125 5 yr, $25M (2022-26), 2027-28 club options $7,775,000 $7,400,000 $8,000,000 $8,500,000 Yimi García 35.2 10.149 2 yr, $15M (2025-26) $7,500,000 $7,500,000 FREE AGENT Yariel Rodríguez 28.7 2.000 5 yr, $32M (2024-27), 2028 player option; team has $10M club option if player option declined $6,400,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 Service time is updated through 2025. Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors, which uses a model created by Matt Swartz. Legend: Estimated Arb Players Eligible For Arbitration▼ Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Daulton Varsho 29.4 5.128 1 yr, TBD (2026) $9,700,000 FREE AGENT Eric Lauer 30.5 5.091 1 yr, TBD (2026) $4,400,000 FREE AGENT Ernie Clement 29.7 3.168 1 yr, TBD (2026) $4,300,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Tyler Heineman 34.4 3.066 1 yr, TBD (2026) $1,000,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Notable Players Not Yet Eligible For Arbitration▼ Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Bowden Francis 29.6 2.098 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Davis Schneider 26.8 2.029 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Louis Varland 27.9 1.163 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT Brendon Little 29.3 1.135 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT Addison Barger 26.0 1.103 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Nathan Lukes 31.3 1.145 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT Braydon Fisher 25.3 0.145 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT Trey Yesavage 22.3 0.014 1 yr, TBD (2026) TBD Pre-ARB Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players $14,040,000 Other Payments▼ Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Myles Straw signing bonus -$400,000 Andrés Giménez signing bonus -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429 $ owed from CLE (Myles Straw trade) -$1,000,000 -$1,750,000 $ due for potential buyout of Myles Straw $1,750,000 $ due for potential buyout of Anthony Santander $5,000,000 $ due for potential buyout of Andrés Giménez $2,500,000 Estimated Payroll $233,401,904 $141,920,238 $114,003,571 $86,289,285 $57,539,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286 Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total Other Payments (Luxury Tax)▼ Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Shane Bieber AAV adjustment (credited for unpaid buyout, prorated to time with team) -$1,268,816 Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate▼ Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster) $193,944,543 $117,114,441 $99,714,441 $81,000,156 $47,314,286 $35,714,286 $35,714,286 Salaries for players eligible for arbitration $19,400,000 AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts) -$1,971,429 -$2,321,429 -$571,429 -$571,429 Sum of Other Payments (Luxury Tax Only) -$1,268,816 Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts $14,040,000 Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 Estimated player benefits to be paid $18,000,000 $18,500,000 $19,000,000 $19,500,000 $20,000,000 $20,500,000 $21,000,000 Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $246,310,965 $137,459,679 $122,309,679 $104,095,394 $71,480,953 $60,380,953 $60,880,953 Totals for estimated luxury tax payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total LUXURY TAX EXPLANATION AND OTHER PAYROLL NOTES The luxury tax thresholds for 2026 are $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M, with increasingly sharp penalties for surpassing each threshold.
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Estimated payroll is at 233M right now after Bieber opting in, thankfully. That's 70M without bringing in a reliever that you mentioned, it's well over the final CBT at 304M, they don't need Okamoto with Clement/Barger/Santander/Lukes et al on this roster.
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And that also brings the payroll to 300M+, lol. I think we should temper our expectations a bit. 😜
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This attempt would be after we miss out on bigger fish, right? Like Bo or Belli... I don't think Tucker's worth 10/400M that money makes me uneasy.
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I edit my post after looking at the projections. I'd be surprised if they protect a reliever at his age and injury history, we'll find out Tuesday.
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Yeah, Jonn's out to lunch, he's projected as a 2.2 Win player by Steamer600.
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I'm guessing the Jays will protect Tiedemann, Kasevich and Pinango on the 40 at Tuesday's deadline. I believe Arias and Duran are safe from being selected with their age and level. What do you guys think? Oops... I see it was discussed earlier, Longenhagen never mentioned 2 of those guys? Hmm... maybe I'm wrong. IDK. Actually Steamer600 doesn't project them very well. I get it.
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That, or they didn't like what they saw during his rehab.
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Nutting is the worst.
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We're talking about a 5th OF'er here, lol.
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Nobody likes prospect porn???
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Going forward Clase > Straw... simply cause of the money, Jays need to shed that contract. He put up 1.8 War last season I'm sure someone will take it on at a reduced amount, plus there's two team options to go with that. Low budget team could make due with him.
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See again, unhinged. What the f*** does politics have to do with team success? Ross just brought the Jays 2 outs from a WS crown... the best since Pat Gillick. And you're out here huffing and puffing like a tool.
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Why do you always say this when you're in a rage, man? Seek help.
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If we were to spend big money on a closer, Edwin's the man, don't get much more consistent than him. Williams was great under the hood, I agree if we can get him on a discount that would be pretty sexy as well.
- 15 replies
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- raisel iglesias
- edwin diaz
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