AL East Preview 2025: Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles may be early-season favorites to win the AL East by some projections, but are they really? When you look at their offseason, they really failed to upgrade and improve where it was necessary. The offense will be fine, but can it carry a questionable pitching staff through the entire season?

What’s Changed Since Last Year?

The biggest change is obviously the loss of ace Corbin Burnes. Acquired from Milwaukee last year, Burnes started 32 games for the Orioles, won 15 games, pitched 194 1/3 innings, made the All-Star team and finished fifth in Cy Young voting. In response, the Orioles didn’t attempt to re-sign him, allowing the right-hander to leave for Arizona.

They did, however, bring in two additions to the starting rotation, hoping to replace Burnes with 41-year-old Charlie Morton and rookie Tomoyuki Sugano. For the bullpen, the team will see the return of prized closer Félix Bautista after missing all of 2024.

Offensively, the team made moves to help bolster the lineup and bench. Among them were the signings of Tyler O’Neill, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano. O’Neill will slot into right field immediately replacing Anthony Santander, who left to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. With the moved in left field wall at Camden Yards, he’ll be able to provide a lot of power for the Orioles. Sánchez and Laureano look to help with the bench, both being suitable backups for the Orioles team as it’s currently constructed.

What Remains The Same?

A lot of the lineup remains the same, besides the subtraction of Santander. The outfield sees the return of Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins, while the infield will see Ryan Mountcastle at first base, Jordan Westburg at second base, Jackson Holliday at shortstop and Ramón Urías at third base until Gunnar Henderson is healthy enough to return. Then, the Orioles will have questions as to which infielder will sit. Behind the plate is none other than Adley Rutschman, and projected to be the designated hitter would be Ryan O’Hearn.

A good portion of the rotation remained the same as Cade Povich and Dean Kremer return alongside Zach Eflin to try and help keep the rotation steady. The three pitchers are joined by Morton and Sugano to form an average rotation that is worse than last year, at least on paper. Pitchers Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Grayson Rodriguez all returned as well but are currently injured.

The bullpen also has some familiarity, as those projected to make the team out of spring training have all been in the organization before this season. Seranthony Domínguez, Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano all return to help provide support to Bautista in the back end of the bullpen. Returning alongside them are left-handed pitchers Gregory Soto and Cionel Pérez.

Where Do The Orioles Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy?

The Orioles feel like they’re one great starter away from being a favorite in the AL East. Prediction models have them near the top of the division, but their rotation scares me a bit when it comes to saying they’ll win it this year. The team is relying on a 41-year-old to last an entire season, and while Morton has shown he’s a good pitcher in previous campaigns, age will eventually catch up to him. Add to it the question marks surrounding Sugano’s transition from Japan, and it could make for a stressful start of the season while they wait for Rodriguez to return healthy.

PECOTA projects the Orioles to currently win the division, hovering around 87 wins on the season. Their percentage to win the division is 33.4%, and their chances of making the playoffs altogether currently sits at 66.2%.

FanGraphs projects a balanced lineup for the Orioles, as all of their starters have projected WARs over 1.0, with three starters having WARs higher than 3.0. That undersells the star power in Baltimore, but they have a balanced lineup where everyone should provide at either a league-average or slightly above production. Of course, that could change upon Henderson’s return from injury as well.

Pitching wise, it doesn’t seem as confident as Eflin leads the rotation with a projected 2.7 WAR. Kremer and Morton follow behind him with 1.3 and 1.2 WARs respectively while Sugano and Povich both have projected WARs under 1.0.

The bullpen is interesting. Bautista in his first season back is projected to have a 1.6 WAR, which is the highest of all their relievers. But after that, the trio of Domínguez, Akin and Cano have projected WARs of 0.6, 0.9 and 0.6 respectively. The three combined would help the pitching staff a lot, but eventually, they’ll get burnt out if used too often.

The Orioles are an interesting team. They could be dangerous in the AL East, but I feel they still need a pitcher or two to really do some damage. As they’re currently constructed, I wouldn’t be surprised if they stay in contention for most of the season, but right now, I have to disagree with projections that have them as favorites. I just don’t think their pitching can keep up all season. If the Orioles manage to make a trade to bring in a top-of-the-rotation arm, their outlook could appear a whole lot rosier.