TheOutsider

Yes, his BABIP is high, but his K%, BB% and ISO are all at least close to his career highs if not better. DeJesus would be a dream scenario. I doubt he has a similar contact rate, so he'll have to be a doubles machine with nice discipline, more than likely.

Anyone got Keith Law's latest mock draft? I want to know who he likes (i.e. who the Jays should stay away from).

Came here to comment on Wall. Dude's somehow hitting .512 over his last 10 games. Also remarkable is that he finished both April and May with an OBP over .400.

I don't think this year's numbers are absurd for Kirby, I think they're more like bare minimum for a pitcher in an inferior conference to be considered in the first 15 picks imho. Now, Marcus Stroman, he had some elite strikeout numbers. Zack Thompson has 130 Ks in 90 innings, and he's in the SEC. Lodolo has a slightly higher K/9 in the Big12. Manoah has a great K/9 in that same Big12. Now, if you think Kirby's stuff is great he probably belongs in that group, but only because teams should have reservations about picking all of these guys (command, track record, injuries).

Can Atkins ask teams for prospects in return for the Jays pitching Edwin Jackson against them? Worth a shot.

After hitting two doubles last night, Alford is now hitting .292/.376/.449 in May. Huh.

When people use them to mean different things, I just interpret it as 'the pitcher they're talking about has little command but can get away with it, that's why they think he's got control, even though that word doesn't mean anything significant'.

No posts for several days, huh? Let me end that streak then. Forrest Wall has gone 4-for-5 today with a homer, just his second of the season. Riley Adams did not homer (unlike the last two games he played), but he did go 1-for-3 with a double and a walk. He did not strike out, which is great to see after he started his stay in AA with a whole bunch of Ks. Otto Lopez somehow has gone exactly two-for-four in each of his last six games, he's now at .308/.368/.396 for the season. While the power is lacking, Otto has gone seven games without a strikeout. Gabriel Moreno hit his second homer, now at .313/.324/.563 over just 9 games.

If it gets Gurriel to hit like he has these past few games, he can continue as far as I'm concerned. XD

I remember that draft very well. I also remember very clearly how much people on this board didn't want the Jays to pick Trea Turner, which is funny now that you can look back with hindsight.

Kevin Smith has hits in his last three games after suffering through a quite enormous slump, so his numbers are still terrible. But maybe, maybe he now sees some light from the bottom of the well he's currently at.

Thanks! I'd actually be on board with both Lodolo (unlikely to fall?) and Thompson if the Jays' front office doesn't think they've found their next Groshans (aka high school hitter they really love), but just going off the reports I'd have to say I prefer Corbin Carroll.

With Stevenson skipping both Vancouver and Lansing, it's not too strange that he had a bit of a rough start, nice to see him get going.

The top four college pitchers plus Rutledge

Definitely interested.

If he truly has found a solid changeup, Stro's going to be all kinds of good.

Pipeline's latest mock has us with Stott: Interestingly, they have Corbin Carroll dropping all the way to 19.

I believe it's without the whitespace. The id of the tweet should be the numbers part.

I'd be a bit worried about the combination of history of elbow stuff and relatively high number of walks with Thompson, but at least his delivery looks pretty good to me.

I feel like Rutledge and Carroll would fit based on what I've read about them, but obviously nobody knows what the Jays' scouting department actually thinks about these guys. Manoah and Stott don't seem like crazy picks, but they don't excite me, personally, if that makes any sense? Are you guys fan of either of these players?

I'm a stats nerd too, dude, no reason to go into flame mode. Nowhere did I claim to have gained any statistically significant insight from those data points. I was wondering out loud if the 'new plaything', that being the availability of spin rates, is a bit overrated. Without trying to be offensive to the guy who brought up Stratton, because he had a legitimate point.

After Thornton -with his nice spin rates- got lit up again I'm really wondering how much stock to put into those spin rates. There's no doubt they're a positive attribute, but spin rates are not very useful in evaluating two-seamers, cutters, sliders and changeups. Especially the changeup is a pitch I'm a big fan of. Also, Halladay didn't have a lot of break on his curve, but he had amazing command over it, which I think is the most important for any offspeed pitch. Not saying Stratton isn't worth a shot, just thinking my own thoughts about spin rates out loud here.

Very true, I'm not the most knowledgeable about conferences, I know SEC is probably the toughest, with Pac 10 and ACC close behind? Don't know if Big 12 (that's the one with the Texas universities right?) is considered to be at that level. That makes the Happ pick seem even more out of line with Schwarber/Bryant, although those did go significantly higher. I would say if the k-rates are even higher against Friday starters you definitely want to be cautious reading too much into the lofty overall slash line.

So I was looking at the college stats for hitters, which to me seem to have the most predictive value (still not a lot), and I was surprised by the high K-rates the most highly rated college hitters seem to be sporting. Some junior year stats for reference: Michael Conforto - 13.97 K%, .202 ISO Kris Bryant - 14.57 K%, .491 ISO Kyle Schwarber - 10.71 K%, .301 ISO Hunter Renfroe - 14.14 K%, .275 ISO Ian Happ - 19.44 K%, .303 ISO Corey Ray - 13.14 K%, .235 ISO Aaron Judge - 21.54 K%, .286 ISO That's 'reverse cherrypicked' to exclude sub-10 K% hitters like Benintendi, Bregman, Senzel, Adam Haseley and Trea Turner. Now this year's crop: Andrew Vaugh - 14.05 K%, .312 ISO J.J. Bleday - 18.52 K%, .413 ISO Hunter Bishop - 19.43 K%, .446 ISO Bryson Stott - 14.04 K%, .287 ISO Josh Jung - 15.27 K%, .254 ISO Shea Langeliers - 13.82 K%, .169 ISO Kameron Misner - 21.52 K%, .226 ISO Will Wilson - 19.27 K%, .324 ISO All stats from http://www.thebaseballcube.com No Bregmans/Benintendis doesn't mean the crop is without talent of course, but I wonder if these guys can make enough contact as a pro. Lots of power, lots of swing and miss in this draft.