Season series
TOR: 10-9 vs BAL, 4-3 vs DET, 3-3 vs SEA
BAL: 9-10 vs TOR, 5-2 vs DET, 1-6 vs SEA
DET: 3-4 vs TOR, 2-5 vs BAL, 4-3 vs SEA
SEA: 3-3 vs TOR, 6-1 vs BAL, 3-4 vs DET
SCENARIO 1: If the Jays win their remaining two games (not likely to happen)
1) If Baltimore also wins their remaining two, they will be in the first spot, and the Jays will be in the second spot..
That means the Jays will play at Baltimore for a wildcard game.
If the Tigers win all of their remaining games at the same time, that means the Jays may have to play tiebreaker against the Tigers before playing a wildcard game. Since the Blue Jays won the season series against the Tigers, it will be at Toronto
2) If Baltimore goes 1-1, the Jays are tied with them. Since the Jays won the season series against the O's, the wildcard game will be happening in Toronto.
If the Tigers win all of their remaining games at the same time, three of them are tied.
In this case, Detroit will be at Baltimore for a tie-breaker and the winner will face the Jays in Toronto. (Since Toronto has better record against both teams)
3) If Baltimore goes 0-2, the Jays clinch the first spot regardless..
NOTE: Seattle is eliminated if the Blue Jays win their remaining two games.
Scenario 2: If the Jays are 1-1
1) If the O's are 2-0, or 1-1 they are in the first spot regardless.
If the Tigers are 2-1 at the same time (including a make-up game against CLE), the Jays will play tiebreaker with them in Toronto.
If the Tigers are 3-0, Tigers are in the second spot, and the Jays are done.
2) If the O's are 0-2, and the Tigers win no more than 2 games, the Jays and the O's are tied.. That means, a wildcard game in Toronto
If the Tigers are 2-1 at the same time, three teams are tied. So DET at BAL, and the winner will face the Jays in Toronto
If the Tigers are 3-0 at the same time, they will be in the first wildcard spot, so Baltimore will play tiebreaker in Toronto.
Seattle need to win their remaining games to play at least a tiebreaker or they are done.
Scenario 3: If the Jays are 0-2 (Swept)
1) The Orioles are in the first spot regardless.
2 If the Tigers are 2-1 or 3-0 in their remaining games (including a make-up game against CLE), the Tigers are in, and the Jays are DONE
3) If the Tigers are 1-2, the Jays will play the Tigers in the tie-breaker in Toronto
-If the Mariners win all three, it will be SEA at DET for a tie breaker (Jays are done)
-If the Mariners are 2-1, that will be three way tie... and it will get more complicated
4) If the Tigers are 0-3, the Jays will clinch and play at Baltimore for a wildcard game.
So I think we will make it to at least a tie-breaker if we win just 1 of our next 2, but looks like we are gonna get swept and we need to think about some worst scenarios..