BigRed

This is what I worry about. Everyone is laser focused on everything that went right in the playoffs (and all the big moments), but people are forgetting how average they were down the stretch. They had like 2 weeks (12 games I believe) with a magic number of 7 (combined Jays wins / Yankee losses) to clinch the division and it came down to the last game. Replay that WS against the Dodgers 100 times and I doubt Snell gets shelled in both starts like that more than a handful of times. Game 5 with all the wild pitches / passed balls was so bizzare. My point is the Jays had a lot of timely hits and luck go their way thats going to be difficult to reproduce. The chances of Springer having that type of season again? Cmon. Guys like Clement, Barger, Lukes, etc played out of their minds for what they were brought in for -- and to expect them to maintain that is a lot of pressure and probably a bit unreasonable.

I think when you look at the last 2 seasons, it's not unrealistic to expect some regression. I don't think this is the 74 win team from a year ago, but I don't think they are truly a 94 win team either. Not looking at the losses to the Dodgers, they had a lot of timely contributions, especially from the bottom of the order that's going to be hard to reproduce / replicate. If Bo leaves that's going to be a huge blow, but Im not conviced hes worth the 25-30M over 7-8 years that he will probably get either. They should hopefully get a boost to the starting pitching with Yesavage, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this team slip back closer to the mid 80s in wins.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daulton-varsho/19918/spray-charts?position=OF Look at his spray charts. Why are we even pretending to be worried about a line out to 3rd or short? He had one infield lineout all season to 2nd. I'm not blaming Schneider, but I'm assuming between him, the bench coach, hitting coach, and everyone else feeding them information on the bench that somebody should have been aware he just doesn't line out to that part of the field. I think Barger being doubled off in game 6 absolutely had an impact on how they played IKF there. They were worried about a <1% scenario instead of just playing the odds. Another way to look at it simply that it was much more likely for Varsho to hit a ground ball somewhere between 2nd and 1st base, than it was him lining out to 3rd, short or the pitcher. Schenider must have been aware that they'd take the single out at home over a DP & conceeding the run with the score what it was, at that point of the game.

The Dodgers have now been in the WS 5 times in the last 9 years, winning 3 times. Probably as close to a "dynasty" that we will see in modern pro sports, and they have a good chance of winning several more in the coming years with Ohtani's contract structured the way it is. The fact that they have the payroll they do, while paying Ohtani 2M/year is completely absurd. The MLB should have absolutely stepped in and not allowed the contract to be structured the way it is, but I doubt they had the authority to do so, or simply didn't care. The league has done everything in its power to cater to him. They made the "Ohtani rule" after all... Even if the MLB limits/ends deffered salary in the next CBA - the damage has been done. The Dodgers have a very good chance of making the WS 4-5 more times over the last 8 years of Ohtani's contract. You have to wonder when the rest of the league/owners will get fed up of money buying playoff births, deep playoff runs or championships -- but im guessing some of the smaller market teams enjoy the CBT cheques they get every year. Plus everyone is going to point to the Mets, but if they keep spending the way they are, it's only a matter of time before they see some deep playoff runs. If the dodgers run it back again for a 3rd time I think you're going to have a lot of upset owners and fans -- whether the owners/front offices speak up is another thing.

If Schneider is trusting enough of Varsho to keep the bat in his hands and not have him lay down a bunt, why wouldn't you tell IKF to take a slightly bigger lead with a lefty pull hitter at the plate? If Varsho lines out to 3rd or short and IKF gets doubled out, you tip your hat and chalk that up to bad luck on a ball in play to a part of the field that he doesn't really hit to. Look at his fangraphs spray charts -- I don't see a single line drive to 3rd or short. That said, I don't blame IKF. He's not the best runner to begin with. Varsho needs to get that ball up in the air deep. There's a dozen other plays you can point to that if they went the jays way we'd be getting ready for a parade.

What a sad game. Can't hit a beachball

Well the only good news from this is hopefully Fatboy John Schneider won't be back next year after the Jays lose game 6

JS should just go auto Autoerotic Asphyxiate himself in the locker room. What a disgrace

He needs to be launched to the sun or the moon. Either one would would work

You're joking, right?

I'm actually surprised this wasn't seen by more people ahead of time. When it was obvious that Bo wasn't coming back I didn't have a lot of hope for this series, much less a probable WS vs the Dodgers. When you're only carrying 4 MLB level bats (Springer, Vlad, Kirk and Varsho) and everyone else is an AAA/bench level player you can only expect so much. The narrative from sportsnet / Buck has been that we have all these lunchbox-type players, where every night somebody steps up... -- and maybe with some timely luck & hits, that can carry you a little bit more consistently thru the regular season when you're not playing playoff calibre teams nightly, but against top quality competition it's probably not a great recipe for success. And I realise our SP hasn't really been an issue, but relying on Gausman who has a +4ERA in 5 post season starts, and a #2 who has 5 career MLB starts is eventually going to catch up to you as well.

Are you some sort of wizard

As crappy as the way the seeding worked out, the Jays are going to have their work cut out for them with either the Yankees or Sox. Pointless to worry about what happens in the other bracket. The Jays won both season series 8-5, but their starting pitching has had some poor outings lately. Gonna need to get more than 4-5 innings out of your aces with 4+ earned runs to have a chance

Buck talking about home field advantage thru the AL playoffs / best AL record. Lets worry about this game and winning a single playoff game first.

Well Otahni's deal certainly helped set the bar higher for Vladdy's contract. The Jays couldn't afford to lose him to the Yankees. What blows my mind is Bo is predicted to sign for around the 180M similar to Adames -- wherever he goes. I know his defense is not great, but he's at valuable position and his bat makes up for it. The difference in money that Bo will probably get vs Vladdy is kind of a head scratcher.

Unlike Varsho's. I don't know why they took the bat out of his hands with 1 out and nobody on. I remember seeing Gausman in 2022 when the Jays signed him in Detroit. I was watching him warm up in the pen before his start and being so excited at how big and dominating he looked on the mound, but he's really pitched poorly in a lot of high pressure games. They absoultely needed a better performance from him, at at least 5 innings, preferably more. Considering when he was struggling in the 3rd and the Jays lead was disappearing, and the Yankees were rigght in their game, the I'm sure the last thing Schneider wants to do is go to the pen so early while looking at a short WC series. Here's hoping they can salvage this game and regroup for an ALDS series.

can we just trade Travis for a bag of Doritos? f***ing useless.

Yeah, when you think about it, using a system (ZiPS) that uses mass amounts of data to predict performance over 162 games seems ridiculous to predict the results a best of 7 series. It's just counter-intuitive. You just need to look at game two of the ALDS between Toronto and Texas to see that anything can happen. Pillar hit probably the most ridiculous home run of the year on pitch location alone (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/kevin-pillar-hit-a-stupid-home-run/). Carrera, who hit 6 home runs all season also went yard. Both of these unlikely homeruns happened against Darvish of all pitchers, in the same inning, along with a 3rd home run from Encarnacion, with a previous home run from Tulo, for a total of 4 home runs. Darvish gave up 12 home runs in 100 innings of work all season, but gave up 4 in 5 innings of work in 1 post season game. Go figure. If those HRs don't happen, Toronto probably doesn't win and go on to sweep Texas. Literally no stat system would predict that, and not even the most far-out/wildest of predictions from anyone would guess that was going to happen. The fact that this is a best of 7 CS instead of best of 5 like the DS will help it normalize a bit, but not all that much. If Toronto wins it will be because they are likely hitting home runs from their big hitters while getting some help from unlikely hitters, and if Cleveland wins it will likely because they can utilize their speed. It's not really a mystery and you don't need ZiPS to figure it out.

I'd be shocked if there's a single NL team who can compete with a desperate AL team that has the security of being able to DH him. He had more DH starts than 1B starts this year (86 vs. 75). This was partially because Gibbons wanted to work other players like Smoak into the lineup, but if he's starting every game at 1B in the NL then it's probably going to wear on him mentally and physically over 162 games. Also, as he ages the likelihood of him playing 161 games decreases as the risk of injury increases. So in short, he's about as much of a bat only signing as you can get, other than something like a Frank Thomas-esque signing. I doubt the Jays offer him something like a guaranteed 4/80. I'm guessing something closer to the value of a qualifying offer (~16.7M) but over 3 years. I'd be surprised if they offered a 4th year, unless it was a team option. A long term deal doesn't mean they are going to back the Brinks truck up to his house. It just means they are prepared to give him (I'm guessing) 3 years (maybe 4) based on his age. They will offer more than the 10M he's making now, but I can't see this front office giving him 20+ million just because he's been on a team friendly deal in Toronto or his past performance. The fact that a 4 year deal will take him to age 37 will still be a factor, and paying him 20M when he's 37 and probably a full time DH isn't likely to have a positive value at that point.

This is the thing. To bump payroll up by another ~20M, you typically aren't adding that over just a single season - it's going to be money added over 2-3, or even 4-5+ years. Players who make 15-20+ million aren't signed to one year deals - they sign multi-year deals. So for the Jays to get closer to the luxury tax - say ~180M, that's not just going to be for a single season where they can drop back down to 140-160M if they have a bad year or two. It's not just an added 20M from the ~160M they have right now, it's more likely +20 million over several years, anywhere from a total of ~40-100M. Then you look at all the high payroll (160-180M) teams that aren't in the playoffs -- Yankees, Tigers, Angels, etc, or teams that had early exits like the Red Sox, Giants, etc and it becomes a little more obvious why the Jays have increased payroll, but cautiously and gradually, and not over long term (+5 year) contracts. I also have some doubts as to the valuation of a playoff game to the bottom line. I really doubt a single game is worth 10M+, especially when you consider that half (or more) of the games are on the road since the Jays only had home field for the wildcard. Then you consider some of the gate revenue is shared, and the value of advertising is unknown (not the same as what US advertisers pay, and a lot of spots are for other Rogers/Sportsnet products), I'd be surprised if a home game comes anywhere near 10M to the bottom line.

Beltre made a poor throw to him, he caught it like inches off the ground. He had to make a low throw to have any shot at the DP. It also didn't help that Bautista was just starting his slide a few feet from the bag and going on his way down, when he should have already been on the ground. If he slides normal that ball is nowhere near him. It's kind of embarrassing. Bautista got punked, and now fans are grasping at straws like Odor was trying to hit Bautista, with zero evidence, while ignoring the fact that Bautista started he slide ontop of the bag, going a good 5-6 feet past it. If he was sliding into the bag and not past it that ball is nowhere near him.

If Bautista was angry for being pitched at he should have went after Bush, not Odor, but I wouldn't want to charge a guy who did 3 years or whatever in prison either. I just don't get why going after Odor angrily the way he did made any sense. Odor did nothing. Even if you want to say it used to be a baseball slide, it was just a baseball play, it was just a player going hard into second or whatever, you don't see a guy immediately get up after that and go after the guy they just tried to take out. Bautista was looking for trouble and found it.

I never said it was, but lets not pretend like it hasn't been an unwritten rule in baseball that you're not supposed to pimp homeruns / show pitchers up, and if you do you might get thrown at. I get in that moment, easily the best moment in 20+ years of Blue Jays baseball we feel it was appropriate to, but lets not pretend the Rangers weren't going to plunk him for it. The problem I have is Odor didn't do anything to Bautista. He wasn't on the mound throwing at him. Odor didn't show Bautista up, but because Bautista is pissed off he just goes at the nearest guy. Bautista gets schooled, and so Chavez feels like he needs to do something, so he throws at fatass Prince in his thigh. It was a pointless "retaliation" because you're not going to hurt Prince there, but at the same time what did Prince do in all this to deserve to be thrown at? Play for the Rangers? Retaliation in baseball is so stupid, because 90% of the time a guy who did nothing is getting plunked, especially in the AL with the DH rule. Bautista pimped a HR and got beaned, that should have been the end of it.

exactly

I wish people would stop defending this slide, or calling it a "baseball play". It used to be a "baseball play", but it should have been removed from the game long ago. Too many guys have been hurt with overly aggressive slides in the odd chance that it saves an out. It can't be a "baseball play" if it's clearly illegal, the MLB has said they want this type of slide out of the game, and the umps have called it already this early into the season. Heck, the Jays have had it called against them already, lets not pretend bautista wasn't aware that sliding halfway to the outfield with no attempt to stay on the bag isn't allowed anymore. I agree that Bannister has some blame in this, but it doesn't matter that it happened in the last game of the season between these two teams. What would have been different if it happened in the first game? Nothing -- it's not like it's the NL and Bush would have had to bat and answer for plunking Bautista, so all the Jays could do is retaliate against a Texas slugger, and that's exactly what they did by Chavez going after Fielder. They didn't need more time, so I'm not sure why the "late" timing matters in this instance - it's not like it was the bottom of the 9th in Toronto where it was the very last AB. That's just looking for a narrative where there isn't really one, because the Jays had time to retaliate and they did. This isn't shocking, if Bush did indeed intentionally hit him (nobody but Bush knows for 100% certainty), then you had to assume the Rangers were looking for a more opportune time earlier in the season series (like in a blowout game) but that situation never came. So it came down to late in probably the last meeting between these teams and they decided to finally plunk Bautista.