Farm

I would love to join.

Time to pivot to Justin Upton. Young black outfielders are the new market inefficiency. Or was it young white center fielders with plus defense?

Diamondbacks prospect valuation is very wack. The Toussaint trade was just step 1. Everyone thought they wanted to save money but they clearly had money to spend. Maybe they are on to something and we'll see an adjustment in what the market recognizes as prospect value but it is still dumb to give up so much even if they are right. The Fernandez asks are probably just an example of anchoring in negotiations. It's an effective method in negotiations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring) that can change the outcome of negotiations even when you consciously know the effects of anchoring. That way when they do decide to trade Fernandez, they might be able to get a better haul. That, or maybe they are just fishing for idiots (like the Diamondbacks) and/or a desperate team.

It is a possibility. Maybe there is a market divide between pitching and hitting. And what Greinke got was more crazy compared to what Price got (which was maybe 20 million too rich). What Zobrist gets will probably give us a better idea of the hitting market. Regardless, 200 million was just a number. Let's go 8 years 220 million then. I just want Heyward hahaha

I wish we got Heyward and traded away Revere. Saunders in LF, the aging corpse of Bautista in RF and 1B, and Heyward in both LF and RF. Pompey can fill in when Saunders is inevitably injured. 8 years, 200 million. It makes too much sense (besides the lack of payroll). Heyward is young, left handed bat, and a perfect piece for the Bautista RF to 1B/DH transition. Not to mention the absurd prices on pitching that we see lately. It is generally accepted that pitchers are riskier than hitters, but I would argue that as a contract goes longer in years, the difference in risk also increases. Reinvigorates fanbase as well. Besides, baseball salaries will (most likely) continue to increase. Just look at how the Martin contract seems good going forward in retrospect.

I really really really really wanted Darvish.

I'll take free agency over trades any day of the week. A 3 year contract won't kill anybody, and could even be a good trade chip in the future. Not much downside here for only 10 million this year. I don't expect us to be crazy competitive in 2017 or 2018 anyways. The upside is that he helps us win this year and becomes a valuable trade chip going into the offseason in an important win-now year, and the downside (besides injury) is 1.0 WAR for 10 million (1.0 WAR in 2013 and 2014 in bad years), and then having a decent chance to bounce back in 2017 in a year where we won't be as competitive. If this was the best pitcher we could sign for this amount of dollars (which I would assume is the case, I doubt the Jays management chose signing the worse player), then this is definitely a good move. Sometimes as fans we just have to accept that we don't know what is going on behind the scenes. The type of contract makes sense and this is the type of player we should be targeting anyways.

Sign Heyward instead of Price. Then trade Encarnacion. f*** 10/5 rights. Or sign Heyward and Davis. Trade Bautista and Encarnacion. f*** 10/5 rights. Then in the middle of the season trade Heyward and Davis. STACKED FARM!!!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/noah-syndergaards-comps-imply-ace-potential/ Dear god

You have to evaluate from the perspective of that moment. And then you revisit that moment with the benefit of hindsight periodically to look at things you should have seen and look at things you should have weighted differently etc. I would definitely disagree with rating trades based solely on results.

To add on to that, the Blue Jays payroll has increased every year under AA. Even if it decreased slightly, who cares? AA wouldn't be leaving over such a minor detail.

It makes more sense to include all trades, both good and bad.

Blue Jays had 10th highest payroll in 2015. Give me a top 15 payroll, I will wait until the trade deadline and then proceed to trade away all our best prospects and some s***** ones as well. I'll probably have a pretty good team for a playoff run.

Trade him for Sydnergaard and D'Arnaud

Originally, this post was a response to KingKat's post in the AA thread. But I started getting carried away in my rant and I just want to share my thoughts on AA; specifically on how he hasn't been great and how he's acted selfishly this past year. Alex keeps on mentioning Vlad Jr. because he knows he massively f***ed up our farm system. So he points to the Vlad signing as an example of how despite all of the moves he has made, he still cares about the future of the Jays. The problem is, however, that the most likely scenario was that after Shapiro came in he knew he already had an inkling of how "the fit" wasn't going to be quite "right." Why else did he go apeshit and trade all of our prospects away? For one more blaze of glory before he went out so he could be named the executive of the year and have much better job prospects in the future. Last year on July 31, 2014, we were at 60-50 with the best pythag in the AL East. He didn't do s***. Yes, AA, 3 million for Vladdy Jr. (not to mention no more additional signings even though we passed the spending limits, and trading for more bonus pools to limit the restrictions to one year when there are rumors of an international draft as soon as 2017) is going to make up for all the prospect for talent trades he's f***ed up over the years. The Marlins trade, the Mets trade, the Rockies trade, and the Tigers trade. The Marlins and Mets trade were f***ing terrible trades in hindsight, but let's be honest, who actually thought those two trades were good at the time? Of course we were excited, because we are fans and that is all we can do -- get pissed off and then try to get excited and find a million ways to rationalize dumb moves. Even the trades made this deadline don't make sense in the context of a GM who wants to stay here long term. Mortgage even more of your future for a deadline Ace rental that will be signed for 7 years/200 million+. Trade for the "best shortstop in baseball" who coincidentally is being paid 19 million a year until he is 36 in 2020 and doesn't even want to be in Toronto. (He also sucked this year but that's irrelevant) Sure, the past is the past and this year at least, the trades he made were defensible to great. Donaldson was obviously fantastic. Travis was a heist. But those were trades made without Shapiro on board. The deadline push makes sense given the context of our great run differential. But front offices very rarely mortgage so much of their future on run differential, especially considering AA's inaction in the past. No, it makes much more sense that the GM in the fifth year of his contract, who made little if any moves during past deadlines, unable to make the playoffs for the entire time he has been here, and likely with an idea that he would not be staying in Toronto in the future just decided to say "f*** it." When you make a trade, that typically means that you are willing to pay more than 28 other teams in the league for that player. We were able to complete four trades, which means we outbid the entire league on four different players. We outbid everyone on Price, we outbid everyone on Tulowitzki, we outbid everyone on Revere, and we outbid everyone on Lowe. And Alex outbid them all because he was willing to trade the future of the Blue Jays away. Price and Lowe are FAs. Tulowitzki has a possibly fair, somewhat scary, very risky contract. Revere presented the most marginal of upgrades with a career 88 wrc+ (and great outfield arm) over Pompey's 81 wrc+ this season and 93 wrc+ projected by Steamer next season (with better defense and similar/better speed). Revere's improvement over Pompey is so marginal that it makes it very hard for me to believe that this these deadline trades were done solely for the benefit of the club for the present and for the future. In the context of just this one season, Alex Anthopoulos is the executive the year. Two excellent trades in Donaldson and Travis, combined with a deadline push that worked out exceedingly well. But as a GM, you cannot just act for the present. Alex probably understands that well, as evidenced by his inaction during the deadline in years past. But this year he completely changed. It just leaves a bitter taste in my mouth to see Alex celebrate 2015 and walk away from 2017. Maybe it isn't his fault. After all, it makes sense for a man to act in his own self interest. In that respect, it could be argued that it's Rogers' fault for not extending him or by bringing in Shapiro in the middle of the season. Maybe he's even deluded himself into thinking that he was acting in the best interest of the club. After all, he did sign Vlad Jr. As a fan, it is just frustrating to see everyone talk about the "high road" Alex is taking and how classy he is. The truth is, he has done an okayish-good job over the past four years and he acted for his own self-interest this past season. If Shapiro thinks Alex traded away too many prospects this year, I would have to agree with him. Maybe we would still have Syndergaard, D'Arnaud, Gomes, DeSclafani, Alvarez, Marisnick, Hechevarria, Becerra, Norris, Boyd, Labourt, Tirado, Graveman, Barreto, Castro, and Hoffman on the Jays if Shapiro was here earlier. 2015 was great. 2016 will probably be great. But 2017 starts to get a bit scary, and 2018 will most likely be scary. It's a long time until then, and as a fan I'll enjoy the ride. And I will definitely rationalize for the Jays when we make some bad moves and cheer when we make good moves. Who knows, maybe this entire post was just me rationalizing for the team once again. But still, when I look back at what AA has done as a whole, I don't think that we are losing out on too much. tl;dr AA didn't do an amazing job these past five years and acted selfishly this past year. Being a fan is rough. f*** AA. Go Jays Go. Rant concluded.

Sorry for being a bit vicious. The whole thread just annoys me. The irony is delicious.

The first sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the NL to the AL during free agency. The second sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the AL to the NL during free agency. Unless you took the time to identify those pitchers and look at their average ages, there is nothing that suggests pitchers from the second sample are a year older. So congratulations, you just managed to show that you either did not: 1. read his argument or 2. did not care enough to take the time to understand his argument before jumping in and criticizing it.

You guys are all idiots. There's nothing wrong with his argument since there is clearly a disproportionate in ERA between leagues. Whether or not he is right is another thing. It is fine to disagree with him, but if you are too lazy to do any research or work yourself then just don't comment. It's stupid to have multiple posters ganging up on one person and giving ad hominem attacks as a way to discredit an argument. Anyways, some thoughts. One possible explanation is ERA variance (does the same pattern hold for FIP/xFIP/ERA- etc.) and maybe there's nothing there. It would be interesting to see if there is the presence of some adjustment period for pitchers (does ERA regress to their previous stats, either on a month-to-month basis or maybe even over a few years?). If you care enough, maybe you can look at LOB% to see if pitchers who make the transition from the NL to the AL have a more difficult time getting out of innings without a pitcher hitting as a safety valve.

Eno Sarris on Estrada QO: "I say yes. I like his skillset. If I'm Toronto, getting him back for one year is fine."

What about a QO and then offer him a Volquez style deal. Or is that too scumbag?

I agree with you on Estrada. He's worth a QO even if he is just a FIP pitcher. But he isn't if he is a xFIP pitcher. But at the same time, I would be willing to bet that high spin rates combined with good command and/or good secondaries leads to below average HR/FB rates. I'm not so sure about Buehrle. I get the sense that he isn't ready to retire quite yet, but wants back to Chicago. Honestly, there's nothing wrong with wanting to go back home or somewhere you are more comfortable with. If you look at his stats he really hasn't changed much this year, there's no reason to believe that he's finished in terms of pitching ability. Maybe he's tired though.

The issue is roster construction. Sanchez and Osuna are annoying because you want them to be starters but somehow you still have to be prepared for when they fail. But if they fail then you need to give up more of your future for a rental during the trade deadline. But then you have Stroman/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna. Then what happens to Dickey/Estrada/Buehrle/FA Pitcher? It kind of makes sense to just keep them in the pen at this point, but it just seems like such a massive waste.

The real question is if you pay 1 year/15.8 million for 2 WAR of starting pitching. If you do, then you give qualifying offers to both Estrada and Buehrle. I think you should do it. Masterson got 1 year/9.5 million last year as a "buy-low" kind of guy after an off year and look what he did (-0.2 fWAR). Brett Anderson got 1 year/10 million as a good peripherals injury risk kind of guy and really worked out, but he still ended up with just 1.7 fWAR. I think giving Buehrle a QO is a (relatively) easy decision to make, so let's focus on Estrada. Yes, Estrada has a scary xFIP, a very low BABIP, as well as a career high LOB%. His peripherals are all trending in the wrong direction. That's actually really scary. But at the same time he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA/4.40 FIP ball. 4.40 FIP isn't actually that bad. He's getting older, but his velocity has relatively close to his effective 2012-2013 years (down 0.5-1mph). We also know he has top tier spin rates for both his four seamer and his changeup. And he's pitched really well this year, and especially in these playoffs. I don't see a massive difference between Leake and Estrada, and everyone expects Leake to get paid. At the end of the day, 15.8 million for one year isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. Look at Anibal Sanchez (16.8 million/0.9 WAR), John Danks (15.75 million/1.8 WAR). Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson, and Brandon Mccarthy. Look at their production, their AAV, and then the length of the contracts. There is value in one year contracts, and especially so for the Blue Jays, since Bautista and Encarnacion are on one year contracts next year. If we have too many SPs at the start of the season, trade Estrada for a PTBNL. At the very least, his contract won't be negative value.

We have one of the top pens in the league. This shouldn't really be a question.

No, you aren't a Jays fans "since... 1989." The word "since" implies you continuously supported the Jays up to now, which is clearly not true. Which is fine, there is nothing to be ashamed of. You just like to support winning/non-boring teams.