LTR

Not just bench spots, unfortunately.

Thanks. I haven't applied that method to my projections yet (easy enough to do but still giving it some thought).

OK, I kind of figured out what happened with Uggla. He's not showing up in the main Steamer projections or the FGDC projections, therefore I was only using ZiPS (and you might not have had him in your FGDC projections but I'm still surprised he wasn't in your ZiPS one). ZiPS is also favoring him more on his player page compared to Steamer (my system falls back to one projection system if both are not available).

JFaS. I compared our optimal line-ups yesterday and today... yesterday was basically identical (might have been one difference), but today leaves some question marks. I selected the same pitcher for sanity testing purposes. Here's my optimal line-up for today (top 2): http://i.imgur.com/xIOsMx4.gif I'm using a combination of ZiPS and Steamer (basically the same as FGDC) by the way. Namely three differences: - 2B: Dan Uggla (vs. Scooter Gennett) This one is weird because Dan Uggla f***ing sucks BUT even the most basic projections * PF * Opposing Pitcher have Dan Uggla as the far and away best value for dollar. Therefore, I don't see how he's not in your line-up unless you used some non-standard method here. Also Scooter Gennett in terms of value came up totally middle of the pack for me so I don't get it (he was facing Jeff Samardzija today). And this goes back to what I was talking about in terms of projections - would you really ever play Dan Uggla knowing what you know about him, regardless of projections/value? I would not. - OF Hanley Ramirez (vs. Jay Bruce) Jay Bruce would have been the next in line so no real concern here but I'm wondering if you're taking your fielding positions from Fanduel itself since Hanley is not normally an OF? - C: John Jaso (vs. Alex Avila) Don't see how you got Avila here, too lazy to comment further.

Damn, seems so obvious now... thanks a ton mate, this will go a long way.

Looking for some SQL advice with my line-up optimizer. With up to 15 games / 30 players per position, there are 1,237,940,039,285,380,000,000,000,000 (8^30) possible line-up permutations (my pitcher spot is done seperately). This number gets squashed when I use a baseline for total points (greater than) and total dollar value (less than or equal to). The problem I’m having is I can only run the query on the top 10-12 or so players from each position… after that the SQL engine breaks. Any tips?

We simply don't have a clue.

Other than sample size I don't think there's anything to dispute.

Gattis is a pretty good framer. He tailed off last year though (you can see year-by-year framing stats on BP). It’s a good question, Navarro seems to have no clue about his framing or lackthereof. Arencibia really did improve his framing since 2013 (credit to Don Wakamatsu maybe?). But looks like he is too dumb to focus on another thing as his offense suffered at the same time.

Looks like it

The Fan 590 broadcasts all games on the radio, and there are some sister stations that do outside out of GTA I think (not sure which)

By framing alone, yes... he's almost as good as Martin.

Pretty OK start for Sanchez I guess

JTIS. This table ranks catcher framing from 2012-2014 by framing runs added per chance (RPC) and per game (RPG). This is a better rank of framing ability compared to just looking at yearly totals on BP (which is more an indicator of playing time). Martin is a good framer but he ranks 17 out of 150. Rene Rivera, Hank Conger, Jose Molina, and Christian Vazquez are easily the best framers in the game right now. To Martin's credit he also ranks 4th in total framing runs added over the last 3 years because of the surplus playing time. FC - Framing Chances XS - Extra Strikes RA - Total Runs Added http://i.imgur.com/YYzQTYl.jpg

Fangraphs doesn't include pitcher batting projections (NL games). So my starting pitcher projections are a bit lacking if I can't fully evaluate the opposing batting line-up. Right now I'm just rounding off the pitcher spot with league average offensive stat for pitchers but this doesn't seem ideal (pitchers are usually pretty negligible offensively but there are some that are decent). Any suggestions?

Navarro with the bat.

Offensively, maybe.

Wow, that was bad. Looked like it was filmed by an amateur.

Depends on how you look at. You could also say Lawrie posted a combined wRC+ of 111 in his first two seasons as a 21 and 22 year old, and a combined wRC+ of 96 in his last 2 "injury-ridden" seasons. In that light you could say Lawrie is easily capable of more than 110 wRC or so.

Lawrie's growth and performance has been stunted to some extent by injury, for that reason his projections could be lower than otherwise expected.

I started out thinking the same way. I wanted to rely on the projection system alone and have a well oiled machine working for me but it just didn't work that way. But good luck, I'm really enthused to see so many people playing and will be curious to see how everyone does, especially with a few of you using your own custom projection systems. Also would be fun to face off with everybody, doesn't even have to be money games, can just play for bragging rights (though anyone can win in small samples).

That's fair, I can't validate how many more games I would have lost (or won for that matter) if I relied solely on the projected optimum line-up. It's a good experiment for this year, would need a significant sample size to have any credibility. I will say that my line-ups were roughly 95% based on projections with the other 5% being a result of "Bayesian inference".

Oops, been a while since I played... so yeah, I guess that would equate to around 3.5K games... yikes

That's exactly the question I'm posing, being able to recognize the difference will benefit you greatly in fantasy betting. I hate to pull the experience card but I played 2000+ FD games last season... if I relied on projections solely I would not have finished the season with a profit.

I'm not talking about hot and cold though. I'm talking about a players performance dropping off for undisclosed or unforeseen health reasons (or related), and being able to flag that.