LTR
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Everything posted by LTR
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He's a gamer, whatever that means -
Pillar, you drive me crazy
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f***ing umps are killing me already.
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Since you're bragging about being in "2nd place" already... no.
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Doesn't mean much until most of the games have been played. I haven't even had an AB yet.
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I'm only entering one game today as optimizer needs adjustments and not enough time to review things (low confidence in this line-up): P Clayton Kershaw C Carlos Ruiz 1B Adam Lind 2B Ben Zobrist 3B Cody Asche SS Jose Ramirez OF Khris Davis OF Carlos Gomez OF Eric Young
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I change my mind about Navarro over Smoak... it's about the same, it could go either way. Vs. righties, last 3 years: Navarro 101 wRC+ Smoak 102 wRC+ Doesn't seem worthwhile bitching about it anyway.
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So frustrating that Gibbons is blatantly putting the team at a disadvantage to start the season.
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For the few missing line-ups you could just pull (or cut and paste) from Saturday's games... most of them look pretty much like opening day line-ups http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups/2015-04-04
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If ST stats are any indication (they aren't) he is his typical dominant self.
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First line-up of the season and Gibbons has already messed it up. Smoak should be in over Navarro.
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My calculations say the Jays have a 36% chance to win this game (sorry).
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I imagine this is pretty much the line of thought most people have.
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If enough line-ups get posted before 1 PM I will post my FD line-up (filling in the blanks for the non-posted line-ups).... hoping this happens.
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Yup their lineup optimizer is complete garbage. But that pleases me as I hope as many people as possible are using it.
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Not sure if this is helpful but you could also do the reverse and add BsR to wOBA to include base running (for a non park adjusted offensive stat), quite simply: BsR/PA*wOBAScale + wOBA Billy Hamilton: 7.6/611*1.304+.287 = .303 Dioner Navarro: -3.6/520*1.304+0.315 = .306 Jose Bautista: -2.5/673*1.304+0.402 = .397 Fangraphs used to include this in wOBA and then they decided to separate it.
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Blue Jays unveil 2015 Opening Day 25-Man Roster
LTR replied to TwistedLogic's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
No more than Lawrie, that's for certain. -
LOL @ Sheet 3.... I died
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IIRC (for FD) late games are 9:40 PM EST or later. Evening are 6:40 PM EST or later. There is also early only (2 or more games). If there is only 1 game in early-mid afternoon it's not included in any games. Note: I don't play any full day games if the start time is in the afternoon since line-ups are never up in time for evening/late games. It's an even playing field but I prefer not to leave my line-ups to chance.
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In my opinion Aoki IS a reverse platoon player (most likely), the same as Ichiro, it's because of their unorthodox hitting style. You may have some case with the BABIP but I still say he's a reverse platoon type. You said your regression calculations don't see him with reverse splits but regression calculations don't see anyone with reverse splits; which goes back to my original point. You said 2500 PA is enough to see Ichiro at face value but actually the standard regression formula doesn't work that way. If you're regressing with 2500 PA against 1000 PA of league average you're still regressing against about 25% of league average (non-reversed splits) which would actually be wrong. By the way K and BB rates are changing with parks (i.e. thinner air makes for less break on balls and vice-versa), and that's why SO/BB rates are included in Park Factor data. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2014&teamid=0&sort=7,d
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I'm using league average data from 5 years for home/away splits with a few constants used as multipliers. But you could also go by individual player home/away splits and regress towards the mean... seems like it could be a little more precise even (not sure it's worthwhile). The principle is the same as applying regressed platoon splits. Your point about "outliers" is troubling because it's valid... we're using generalization because it might be the only realistic way to try and normalize the projected data. Unfortunately, there are exceptions. Ichiro Suzuki is a good example, career reverse splits. Apply the standard regressed splits on Ichiro Suzuki and you will end up with erroneous projections. Nori Aoki is another example. You'd be better off not regressing their splits at all our perhaps flagging them as having reverse splits so you could apply the opposite approach.
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Too many it seems.
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Word. Would just be easier to have to import one table instead of two (or two instead of four, since pitchers and batters).
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I'm finding FanGraphs Depth Charts unusable for my purpose. They combine ZiPS + Steamer but remove any records that don't exist in both. Which might makes sense from their perspective, but I have 20+ players with projections unaccounted for in yesterdays matchups (none unaccounted for if I'm merging both Steamer and ZiPS myself).
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6 WAR in 2013 for league average offense... everything was on the defensive side and I'm wondering if it has more to do with shifts than actual ability.
