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WillyWonka

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Everything posted by WillyWonka

  1. WillyWonka
    The question is not can the Jays catch the Rangers, but can the Rangers hold off the Jays.
  2. WillyWonka
    I started rooting for the Jays shortly after I started playing baseball when I was 5 years old.....that was 1994. Timing was absolute BS. Good times now though....
  3. WillyWonka
    That beats logo....
  4. WillyWonka
    Caught
  5. WillyWonka
    Chicks love Lawrie. Chicks will cheer
  6. WillyWonka
    it is unlikely that you are able to control how many flips the coin makes before it lands or the exact amount of force you exert because you are not a freak of nature. Therefore, compared to your intentions, the outcome is luck. If I win ten coin tosses in a row, it doesn't make me intrinsically lucky, it just means that we witnessed a statistical oddity (aka luck!). Similarly, hutch's stats indicate that he's not as terrible as his ERA indicates. Maybe hutch pitches a perfect game next week because every ball happens to be hit right at fielders...or maybe he gives up 10 straight lil loopers.....either case is luck
  7. WillyWonka
    So if we flip a coin 10 times and I win 7 and you win 3, you would conclude that I'm a more talented coin flipper??
  8. WillyWonka
    Ya but he walks so many batters that it negates the movement/velocity. Plus ground ball pitchers tend to get rocked hard when they miss up because they lead to line drives.....flyball pitchers get popups. At any rate, I'm not arguing that Hutch is more talented than Sanchez, I'm arguing that Hutch has been relatively unlucky while Sanchez has been relatively lucky. Hutch has been getting results below his capabilities while Sanchez has had a few breaks.
  9. WillyWonka
    So? That means the Angels have to go 2-1 in those 3 games just to tie us.
  10. WillyWonka
    Even if a batter is impressed by the fastball, it still has a decent chance of landing in play for a hit. A lot of Hutch's balls have been falling into play for hits, making him look worse than he really is. Sanchez's fastball hasn't exactly been striking out a lot of batters (5.9K/9 isn't amazing). Having an impressive dick helps, but you still need to know how to use it.
  11. WillyWonka
    We've only played 21 games since the All-Star break, which is a pretty small sample size. This leave rate stats like ERA, save% and WHIP wide open to the "sh*t happens" factor that get smoothed out over time. Although Price would have had a slight impact so far in his two games.
  12. WillyWonka
    The numbers that you just gave support the argument that Sanchez has been lucky relative to Hutchison (especially that BABIP differential), so we can expect Hutchison's ERA to improve vs. Sanchez's in the future. Despite this magical fastball, Hutchison still has more K/9 and fewer BB/9.
  13. WillyWonka
    Jays home advantage is bigger than I realized. Oddly, the Angels are apparently at a (very) slight home disadvantage over the past 5 years. Source: http://www.betfirm.com/mlb-home-field-advantage/
  14. WillyWonka
    The advantage is what....6% extra chance of winning for one game? Not huge. Making sure we get there matters most
  15. WillyWonka
    Ya but I was hoping for a LAA win. Since there's no benefit to being WC-1 over WC-2, I would prefer to maximize the difference between us and the rest of the pack.
  16. WillyWonka
    Lol
  17. WillyWonka
    Radio, mate
  18. WillyWonka
    I'm hoping they bring in the Mexican soccer announcers
  19. WillyWonka
    4 coin flips? I'd say the odds are a bit higher than that....the Jays are arguably the best team in baseball right now on paper and their pythagorean wpct is over .600....easily the best in the AL. Based on the pythagorean wpct this team is better than it was in 1992 and 1993....and that barely factors in the impact of the players we got at the trade deadline. Even then, it's probably about 10%, sadly. Best thing to hope for is a division win, and then the wild card team somehow beats out KC. Fangraphs has the odds of a WS championship pegged at 9.2% right now http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
  20. WillyWonka
    Gibby out....jays lose
  21. WillyWonka
    Nova really making jays look silly
  22. WillyWonka
    I've always seen neutral range with a + arm. Still...can stats factor in running attempts that were NOT made out of fear of the howitzer?
  23. WillyWonka
    But that arm.... He's not great, but an entire loss attributed to his defence?
  24. WillyWonka
    lol @ Tulo already being #8 according to both after 9 games.
  25. WillyWonka
    Anyone have any idea how valid Baseball Reference's WAR calculations are? The Jays' 2nd MVP by WAR is Kevin Pillar with 3.2....a healthy lead over Russell Martin at 2.6. Obviously, most of this comes from 2.1 defensive WAR vs 1.3 offensive....which bothers me because oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR. Defensive stats are always a question mark (Joeybats with a dWar of -0.9???), but can this actually be true?
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