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JaysFan75

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Everything posted by JaysFan75

  1. JaysFan75
    I'm an Advanced Stats Fan as well. I look at Fangraphs.com every day. The difference between myself and North, it would seem, is that he has no idea how they work.
  2. JaysFan75
    And we might have been 2-4.
  3. JaysFan75
    Wow... You cannot lose a game that you win!!!
  4. JaysFan75
    Advanced Statistics, in small sample sizes, do not reflect results as far as wins and losses, especially for pitchers. A pitcher can pitch poorly and still allow a low amount of runs in a game. In the long run, continued poor performance will most likely cost the team wins, but it doesn't mean they have in the sample in question.
  5. JaysFan75
    I think you are reading my posts wrong. I'm not saying he's pitched well. I am saying that he has pitched poorly on the whole, but it hasn't cost the team in wins and losses.
  6. JaysFan75
    My argument was that while he has pitched poorly, he hasn't cost the team in terms of wins and losses. If he continues to pitch like this it will cost them, but it hasn't so far. For guys who seem to subscribe to advanced statistics, you don't really seem to have a very good understanding of them.
  7. JaysFan75
    Who's this better pitcher you are talking about? Yes, if they signed James Shields in the off season, you would play him instead of Sanchez. None of the other options they have available to them would likely have won any more games.
  8. JaysFan75
    If a pitcher get's lucky and walks 5 batters, strikes out none, has a lot of hard hit balls against that are mostly hit directly at fielders and caught and allows no runs over 6 innings, he will have a low WAR. If he continues to pitch this way over an entire season he will eventually cost the team in wins and losses. In this game however, he will not have cost his team in wins and losses. An average pitcher would not have a better result.
  9. JaysFan75
    He has given up less than 4 runs per 9. A replacement level guy won't give you that with the defense the jays have put up to date. WAR is based on predictive stats and not actual results in terms of wins and losses. If he continues to pitch as he has, he will most likely cost us in wins and losses, but he hasn't to date.
  10. JaysFan75
    IMHO, barring injury, for the rest of the season Sanchez will do the following: BB/9 < 5 HR/9 <1 BABIP < Average WAR > 1 Overall, he has pitched poorly, but he has had flashes that lead me to believe he is close to figuring some things out. To date he has not cost the team in wins and losses, and until he does, I think you give him a chance to iron things out. Edit: I voted "As expected, poor control, replacement level" regarding his performance to date.
  11. JaysFan75
    Until today, he's been clean since last June. That's enough of a track record to suggest that today might just be a blip. He may still have control problems, but he might not. Today doesn't prove it either way.
  12. JaysFan75
    It happens to the best: http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2007-08-29&team=Blue%20Jays&dh=0 It's one game. He hasn't had a problem with walks since June of last year, give the guy a break!!!!
  13. JaysFan75
    How is it an assumption when there's evidence to support it?
  14. JaysFan75
    And that's got nothing to do with him I suppose. Just luck....
  15. JaysFan75
    So Chris Young, Ted Lilly, Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano had consistently low BABIP rates over their careers because they were good fielders?
  16. JaysFan75
    Here's a couple problems I have with this line of reasoning. 1. If pitchers have no control over BABIP, how do you explain Chris Young, Dave Stieb, Sid Fernandez, Charlie Hough, Matt Cain, etc... who have consistently maintained BABIP rates below average. See http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Is-Pitcher-BABIP-Luck-BBD3653.htm 2. History may show that it is more likely than not that Sanchez will not dramatically improve his walk rates, but it doesn't say that he CAN'T. There have been guys who have done it, and there's no reason he can't. His walk rates since the middle of last season have been dramatically better then his previous rates, so it's possible that this will continue. To me, until he proves that his numbers since the end of June 2014 were a fluke, he deserves a shot.
  17. JaysFan75
    That would of course make a lot of sense. Again, there are guys who have low walk rates, low SwStr%, and produce good numbers over the course of their careers. They may not be the norm, but they do exist. Sanchez may never be one of these pitchers, but I think there is a decent chance that he will.
  18. JaysFan75
    That may be true, but there are plenty of exceptions: Mark Buehrle, Henderson Alvarez, Doug Fister, Bartolo Calon, etc...
  19. JaysFan75
    Couldn't agree more. I think that the walks have been a bigger problem than his SwStr%. Also, it is possible that his walk rate from the end of last season was the result of some improvements he's made and not a fluke. Only time will tell, but I think it's premature to write him off just because he walked too many guys in the minors.
  20. JaysFan75
    The issue with Sanchez's minor league numbers is that he wasn't down there just trying to get guys out. Everyone has known for a long time that he is a special pitcher and can get guys out. He was primarily working on specific pitches and approaches to improve his game in the long run, which I think we're seeing the results of now. Now, he will likely go through some rough patches, just like Hutchison and Stroman, and almost surely will not have a BB/9 rate of 1.25 for the rest of his MLB career, but to suggest that his high minor league walk rates mean that he will always have problematically high major league walk rates is ridiculous.
  21. JaysFan75
    Sanchez will never be a stud anything... His walk rate in the minors was far to high!
  22. JaysFan75
    xFIP can be misleading. Look at the average BABIP for the top 10 pitchers in terms of LD% vs the bottom 10. There's a pretty dramatic difference there.
  23. JaysFan75
    I'm sorry I asked...
  24. JaysFan75
    So why have you been wasting time on this site since January?
  25. JaysFan75
    A good reason why stats don't tell the entire story
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