JaysFan75

BABIP luck

His control has improved dramatically as a starter this year. If he can continue to improve his control, with the increased use of the 4 seamer and change up, he could be scary good.

BABIP luck

BABIP luck

BABIP luck

You might be right. There should have been a vote last year: 1. Sanchez is a guaranteed Ace. 2. Sanchez has potential, but needs to improve his control, and add another pitch. Has a chance to be a good MLB starter. 3. Sanchez has proven that he will never be a viable major league ballplayer (Edit: barring a miracle).

There's no broad brush. They know who they are.

Sanchez has a tool that very few pitchers have; a high nineties fastball with extreme movement. The reason that people believed that he could improve is because he has the tools to do so. Pitchers with elite tools and mediocre numbers have more potential than pitchers with mediocre tools and mediocre numbers. There has been a lot of backpedaling in this thread, but the truth is that guys were saying that Sanchez was worthless purely based on his numbers in the minors, and arrogantly ridiculing anyone who said otherwise. You can call it trolling if that helps you maintain your arrogance, but we all know the truth.

Actually, my point was that if Shapiro is able to sustain success for the next few years, then it stands to reason that AA didn't destroy the team after all.

I guess we'll have to see if the Shapiro is able to sustain success with what AA left them.

ftfy

Shouldn't this guy be in Buffalo?

I think you will most probably need to replace Buehrle via free agency or trade. Assuming Dickey stays, and one of the other guys(most likely Norris) proves he is ready, that should be enough. Obviously too early to tell, but it is quite likely if you ask me.

A little to early to tell. Norris could definitely cement his spot by the end of this season, or even one of the others.

I was just observing that as a ground ball pitcher, Sanchez might have more variation in BAPIP or "Luck" from start to start than normal. One game where most balls get hit at infielders, and another game where they all seem to go through. So far this season it seems that they've mostly been hit at the infielders. I don't think there is enough data on Sanchez to say one way or another at this point, so it's purely theoretical at this point. This wasn't my main point, just something that came out of the "Conversation". Call it searching for a narrative if you like.

Depends how you interpret my statement. What I mean is that when a ground ball pitcher has good luck it might be of more benefit to him than a high HR pitcher like Estrada. Conversely, when they have bad luck it might do them more harm. Let's take a sample size of 2 balls hit in play. Let's say in one game Sanchez has 2 ground balls hit hard directly at Josh Donaldson, as opposed to directly down the left field line. Both of those balls would likely be outs instead of base hits based purely on luck as Sanchez has no real control as to whether they are hit at Donaldson or down the line. Let's say in another game Estrada allows 2 home run balls hit directly over Josh Donaldson instead of directly down the first base line. There will be no benefit to Estrada in this case. Let's take another game where Sanchez has 2 hard ground balls hit directly down the third base line instead of directly at Donaldson. In this case the exact opposite happens. Over the course of a season, or a career, things will even out, but in a small sample size, Sanchez might benefit more from good luck than a pitcher such as Estrada. Obviously there will be a lot more at bats in these games, but even a few at bats in a game can have a large impact on the result. I'm not saying that this is what's happened here, but I believe that it is a possibility, and might in part explain part of what has happened with Sanchez this season.

I will agree with this, except that I think that a ground ball pitcher like Sanchez might benefit from luck and good defense more than a high HR pitcher like Estrada.

Again, not saying he hasn't pitched poorly. Just saying that it hasn't cost the team in Wins and Losses. Having said that, I believe he will perform better for the remainder of the year than he has to date. As I said on my first post in this thread, I think that for the rest of the year he will do the following: BB/9 < 5 HR/9 < 1 BABIP < Average WAR > 1 (assuming he stays in the starting rotation)

If someone else had pitched, the "luck" they experienced would likely have been dramatically different. If I roll a set of dice 5 times and get 5 pairs, the likelihood that you would have had the same luck and rolled 5 pairs remains very low.

But they probably wouldn't have had the same luck Sanchez has, meaning that you probably wouldn't have had more wins.

Estrada had a start. 5 runs in 4.2 innings. A worse result than any of Sanchez's starts. Besides, Estrada is already in the rotation, so it's a bit of a moot point.

I don't see how you can realistically say that a replacement player would have had a better win-loss record.

Sorry, that was over the line. But I definitely think that there is a miss-understanding here between a pitchers performance and the impact it has on an individual game. A pitcher can pitch poorly, while not costing his team in terms of wins and losses.

I never said he pitched OK, I said he pitched poorly. What I said is that it hasn't cost the team in terms of wins and losses.

J.A. Happ is not a member of the Blue Jays. If he was, and Sanchez was pitching in his place, yes Sanchez would be costing the team wins. Happ has not been an option, so Sanchez hasn't cost the team wins.